Tell me about it...how often has the most extreme modeled snow worked for us at this range...NEVER. Especially the Euro, it's the worst at fantasy snow. We always say if we had hugged the warmest/least snowy model we would have had our answer. We never learn...I am hoping 1-3" across the triangle but that takes a NW shift of the GFS. Not that confident of that just yet.
Well without a wrapped up low whoever wants to jack is going to have flirt with temp issues. Personally would like the GFS where cold isn't an issue but fringes with better qpf.
Why I posted I wasn't sure what I wanted it to show.
If I didn't have skin in the game I would think the same so don't want to jinx it. I can't remember an event where the GFS didn't tick NW inside 48 hours. Of course Euro can be a little amped. A blend is usually what happens.
So GFS is bone chilling cold but suppressed and the Euro is juiced but we taint. Seems like just about every winter around here. The Atlantic ridge just sucks....
At this point I hope this fizzles out so we can get back to normal....watching day 11+ anomaly maps for hope of a pattern change.
North trend starts Wed. :-)
Every run the GFS gets a hair slower swinging that trough through. It's getting crazy, by hour 60 you could see it was getting left behind though. I think 0z tonight the GFS steps closer to the Euro.
We can be warm with blocking and crappy pac (+EPO/-PNA)...ala 2013. To be honest, I really thought/think the PDO will flex sometime this winter, probably later in Jan into Feb. But, that's probably wishful thinking....
End of GEFS still shows nina forcing at 120E (snoozer)...but GEPS and CFS weeklies start to change that end of Jan.
This is a pretty bad look when big low setup over AK....now can we pop a ridge and we get a aleutian low with pac ridge to setup after this? We shall see. If that low really does setup shop then we are in trouble and winter will be over....not saying it will but just if.
Yeah...I think it's going to be warm day 10...all the ensembles agree on that. I think if the pattern changes it will be after the 20th. Though if the -EPO holds then we can get more cold fronts that swing through.
LOL....I noticed that more and more about social media "mets" it's taboo to discuss model runs or upcoming cold or warmth or really anything that would seem contrarian.
Yep...15 years ago last time we had a good snow event that missed the MA. Point was if we get snow typically they will too. I just hope someone gets snow out of this whether it's us or not.
Like I said...we aren't getting a snow storm before the MA gets there's. Just like Lions can't beat the Packers. We will always have the Navgem which was crushing snows for the SE in its 12z and 18z runs.