packbacker

30 mins...I do think the NAM is probably a hair to far NW but don't think it's that overdone. It does do fairly good job on temp profiles so that's what's most concerning. I would take the RGEM over the NAM any day but you can't ignore it.

Looks the same but much more QPF. Verbatim it has 1" QPF of sleet so 3" of sleet with 0.25" of snow. So that would be 5" of sleet/snow, if NAM is correct. Reminds me of Jan 2010.

I don't think there was a single ensemble member that showed this on the GEFS or EPS today...70 members.

I guess verbatim we are a lot of sleet then temps do finally crash hard and we flip to snow. But goodness...it has solids snows into Indiana and WV...several inches.

NAM is a disaster...maybe it is correct. It's got heavy snows all the way back to TN. RDU is all rain.

Oh gosh...don't remind me of that...maybe that's how I get the NAM stop shifting N...book a trip to NoVA!

The QPF max is a little west of the globals and considering the SREF I would think that's about right.

If nothing the NAM is consistent. Sheesh...

LOL...I honestly don't know whether we are getting 1-2" with rain/sleet mix or 5-6 snow/sleet. And it starts in roughy 24 hours.

Now that I type that RGEM coming in way more amped...LOL.

Was just reading the thread for the Jan 28, 2014 event. It was simliar with tight gradient and we were hoping for a last min NW shift and never got it...still got 2-4" across the area. The NAM did show some crazy totals that didn't verify. The RGEM/Euro ended up being most correct on just about everything, QPF/temps/gradient.

Even RAH backed off for Raleigh, worried about mixing and shifted max snowfall in 85 corridor.

That looks awesome, if I look east I see rain, if I look west I see snow.

To separate or not to seperate...that's the question for a whole bunch of people in the SE. Surprised the GEF/GFS are so locked in. So it's USA/UK vs Canada/Europe. Wonder how the German and French model are doing.

So you have GFS/UK vs CMC/Euro. Euro was quicker because of no stream separation.

Qpf max shifted a hair east that run. Don't know what to think except the NAM's are terrible. Blend of the GFS works for us and the GEFS were unreal. Let's hope 0z holds LOL

Didn't dig as far sw though...hmmmm

Euro already stronger through 12 with sw low.

Really think this Euro run will be close to what verifies, don't think it shifts huge inside 36....I hope!

Interesting... PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR N FL/GA SAT MOVING TOWARD SE NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH STRONGER AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO CONSENSUS. THE SPREAD REMAINS, GENERALLY, IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE ITSELF. THE 00Z ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE ECENS MEAN KEEP WITH CONTINUITY OF THE LAST DAY OR SO OF SLOWER SOLUTIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE SUITE WHICH GENERALLY IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE TIMING REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE MODELS WITHIN THE SPREAD SEEMS TRADITIONAL OF A PATTERN THAT IS BECOMING BETTER HANDLED OVERALL. AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR SECTION...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS IN WEIGHTING. CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY INCREASING BUT REMAINS NEAR AVERAGE.

FYI...this was the meteo from the Euro last night for Raleigh...not even close to rain. I could expect at 12z to see some "MIX" instead of "SNOW" in an hour or so.

Well the NAM's were worrisome, the UK/GFS ticked NW. We will know in about 45 mins what our fate is with the Euro. But, I don't usually use the UK for temps...nor would I use the GFS. It's Euro's storm now.

You suck! Every winter event it's either you or me that gets the snow....I have been getting my butt kicked overtime. Like the Cleveland Browns of snow.

GEFS 12z (left) v/s 0z (right) snowfall mean....sucks this will trend to a rainstorm for us.

Well RDU looks to be all frozen on UK but probably mixing with sleet. QPF still about 0.75"