packbacker

Nope...pouring rain. I just walked out and checked the rain gauge and it says 0.3". That's a 1/3 of what we were supposed to get. The CC line looks to be 100 yards from my house and I am not so sure it will move past me.

Look at this...it's snowing N/S/W of Wake Co. Literally wrapping around the county.

I do feel bad for Fishel/Gardner/Maze...nobody saw this, no model predicted this epic bust for Raleigh. RAH was tweeting maps of most likely see 7" across the area with a max of 12". This is the last winter storm I track, I won't believe anything a model spits out. This was a textbook setup for us...there was nothing that was a glaring problem, weak SLP, track off the panhandle off the coast, with cold air pressing in.

I am stunned...I really never considered us to get this much rain, or really any rain. I have big puddles everywhere. Nothing had this. Tracking snow sucks, LOL.

Sweet...what can go wrong in the next 4 hours. :-)

Nope, pouring rain and I am in the middle of the pink on radar. We will rain for several hours now.

You can see where the rain/sleet line is setting up, farther north, as is the snow line. It's not supposed to crash SE until well into the morning on the tail end of wraparound. This will be the biggest bust I have experienced, bigger then Dec 2000.

I don't think we will have to worry about that. The good news I think we will either be snow or rain and from the looks of things it seems like the latter. The only models showing rain was the 4km NAM and its not pretty. Maybe some freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon. Some more good news we won't be holed up in our houses this weekend, roads will be fine. Our climo has changed, we just can't get snow.

Never good when "brief lull" and snow will pickup in a couple of hours is used by RAH. LOL

Pouring rain and 36F. This will rival the Dec 2000 bust. LOL.

Rule of thumb...hug the rainiest model. Never lose...thank goodness we get a break after Tuesday.

Yep...no way we get 6, maybe 2-4" would cover most. That may be high...we are raining a lot right now. RAH threw in the towel, Ben mentioned freezing rain for our area. Oh well.

What a mess..HRRR has us rain until 11pm and then dances with snow/sleet line in Wake. Think we see 2-3" snow/sleet but ramps up quickly just to our NW.

RGEM was roughly the same, lot of sleet maybe backend snow. If you believe it we don't snow until tomorrow lat morning. Every 6 hours this gets worse. Pingers all night....well I guess we could rain too.

Thank goodness!

Will do...can't wait to see how much rain.

Not sure we will have to hope for that....it's coming. Winter over after our cold rain tonight.

Who would have thought this look gives us a sleet/rain mix in early Jan. We just don't snow anymore. With this track and weak low too.

Gut punch...what are the odds the slp tracks 15 miles further off shore. Higher odds it tracks over CAE.

Where are you again?

We better hope that overrunning over performs as come about 11pm or so we will flip to sleet (i hope not rain) and then we probably won't flip back until late morning when hopefully we can get another 0.15-.2" QPF. Reminds me so much of last Januarys event, we thought mix of snow/sleet and it ended up being all sleet. Bummer...but there are worse problems to have. We sure have had some tight gradients the past few years...I guess it's better then not having any gradients. Looking forward to the warmth come mid next week, we should torch for a couple of weeks and possibly longer.

I said I was going to ride the RGEM and Euro...RGEM was pretty good, Euro in 90 mins. UK comes out in 10 but don't put to much faith in it now.

That's the thing the CMC/RGEM/GFS we all jack because we are toeing the line. I could literally seeing a NW shift and we get slop and end up with 1-2" or we get 5-6" of concrete. I don't know what to think...

We are 30 miles from a cold rain and 30 miles from all snow. Right now we are in sitting in QPF max with a mix bag of junk. The heavy snow is like 50-75 miles wide. I will be happy, very happy with 3-4" of sn/ip mix. I have given up on the all snow, I just hope to avoid rain.

The 4km NAM is all sleet and no snow. If these NAM's are correct then I give up...this would be a tough pill to swallow. I do think we taint a good bit but to get no snow with what the other 18 models are showing...