Snowncanes

Maybe im just being stubborn but to my untrained eye the euro trended slightly better with the Baja low and northern stream but still delivered the same result. Maybe someone more experienced could enlighten. I just find it hard to believe a HP that strong with some decent blocking retrogrades that quick with a low thats not all that strong.

Euro with a little less interaction at H60

GEFS snow depth mean. Obviously this is not all snow, and probably mostly sleet for southern sections but still a big winter storm no matter how you slice it. Hopefully we can stay out of the ZR

GEFS vs EPS low locations. Obviously the amped/miller b solution is not good for us but synoptically they’re pretty similar wrt SLP locations for the high pressure. Looks like the high over the dakotas is a bit stronger on the GEFS which allows less room for the LP to ride up the apps. Im no pro but will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. I don’t think it takes much to change outcomes (either way) with this setup. I think we will get a much better handle when all the players are sampled (northern stream vort, high strength, Baja low) so looking forward to this evenings runs.

Long time lurker first time poster. ICON a looks a little better with regards to the phasing out west. IMO thats our biggest player at the moment. HP is here and even though it’s a bit transient at the end, still cold enough. We just need the storm to phase less/slower out west. Little differences out there make big differences here.