winter_warlock

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

The fun part is that it keeps trending worse.  Best chance at this point is that either (a) the bleeding stops, and/or (2) cad is underdone.  The upper air pattern is not ideal.  Honestly, looking at it, I wouldn't even think we'd get snow from it, but luckily we have at least some residual cold air to work with.  It'll be interesting to see how the storm ultimately plays out, but I'd be ok with it just simply starting as snow at this point east of the Blue Ridge.

I agree!!  Just take what we can from this one and wait for next one in 10 days or so

 So far difference  in nam from 12 z

26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12z Euro

Well that sucks lol

Gfs a lil colder, a touch more snow .   Hope that trend continues!

Is it me or did nam come in a lil colder with a lil more front end snow this run compared to 6z?

Just now, jayyy said:

It’s okay guys, we’re gonna wake up to a 6z NAMing


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I can live with that!

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

A low level warning event is still in the cards in my neck of the woods in Carroll county. Not counting us out just yet. Still think we see things shift a bit further SE between now and tomorrow night.

This is the appetizer in the upcoming pattern. MLK day and beyond is gonna be a smoke show. Can feel it in my bones.

Yeah i saw that bro long range is looking good for us!!

 Gfs to me looks like a 2 to 4 inch event before a chang over  to rain for me in north central md.. not bad for a first event of season. Hopefully that's just the beginning of whats to come later

Just now, clskinsfan said:

GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. 

Not for  i95

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM still really nice west of the fall line. Heavy snow for Loudoun. Good run.

Where are u getting longer range rgem?

Sterling saying mostly rain for i95.. did they not see the 00z models? Lol

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution.  Euro will be telling in an hour.

Yeah i agree, kinda weird that all the modeling had the same exact shift ..had to be new data!

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Lot of variety. Very unsettled.

Qpf profiles will be  more accurate  as we get closer to the event, same with snow maps

 And looks like all models show a miller A which means no transfer  crap!!!

Just now, Heisy said:

We got the trifecta I think



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Looks great!! If 850s are good then we definitely  got the trifecta!!

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m still shocked. Give me the Ukie too in 15 minutes and I’ll be floored


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If the ukie shows the same improvement. People will go nuts!! Lol

Very latest just out out by WPC

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

love to see the confluence make a notable shift stronger on both the GFS and CMC so far. increases surface HP strength and compresses the flow so that even a weaker S/W has more bang for its buck AND is colder

Very nice to see the confluence improvement  on  BOTH GFS and CMC models!!( and icon too. Fwiw...lol) Hopefully. The euro picks up on same improvement!!

00z gfs and cmc much improved. Game is back on folks!!

Storm finally pulls away at 06z monday!  

Just now, nj2va said:

Wow 9.4 kuchera in baltimore!

Hour 114 and. Still snow lingering!!

Even dc and balt getting wrecked! And that 1034 h looking nice!!

Hr90

Through my untrained eye gfs through 84 does look better, no low going through ohio valley.  Just 1 low in south east