winter_warlock

Hey do any of you remember the CRAS model??  I wonder what happen to that dumpster fire of a model lol

38 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Also for the 20th, precip on GEFS indicates the GoM is going to spin something up.

Obviously as depicted it's OTS but given the beautiful bigger picture, hard to complain at this range... good to know there's potentially energy around, then got to get it in our neighborhood.

   I think its in a decent spot for 230 hours out

  yup pretty much lol

Id be more disappointed  in the 18z gfs if it was alot closer than 6 days out lol

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone get Jobu some rum and a cigar and get this show started. Cerrano is bound to hit a curveball eventually. 

In my best pedro cerrano voice.... " it is VERY BAD to steal Jobu's rum.. very bad!!" 

FWIW... HOUR 144 AND 168 of the JMA....

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You got 2.5??? Man you really cashed in, lol

 Yeah lol  it was actually  the lowest amount ive ever had where i live now. 

Well as long as i get more than the 2.5 inches i got last year.  I'll call this winter a success lol

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Definitely  an improvement from. 00z!! In my opinion!

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I believe the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. To be simple, more flakes over us. Dear God! No need to be so negative, this is 6 days away.  Sure, at 06z next Tuesday I would rather place that developing lp over Myrtle Beach instead of 275 m  se of NYC.  Give it time and hope for the best.

I agree.  Step in right direction for 6 days out!!

After seeing the 12z gfs and cmc. Im thinking they may cave to what the euro had yesterday !    Was a good step in right direction!   Woukd be nice to see the good ole days come back where the gfs and cmc caved to the king!!!

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes

Agreed!!

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it?

ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road. 

 I dont think they will really zero in on a solution till the second cutter goes thru. In my opinion 

I got a total of 1.71 inches of rain here in sparrows point MD 

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Euro ain't budging...just changing it up here and there, but continues with the storm idea.  Like Matt said, it pulls it together just past our latitude and we get in the coma head

  Thats all we can ask for  6 days out

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

Looks promising to me ill admit... but. Been many times its looked good 8+ days out only to change as we get closer

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

 Looks very nice!!! Im hoping we can get a decent storm in this pattern

 Hate to see it be a waste!!

06z. Gfs is actually better then 00z to my untrained eye  babysteps!

In my opinion the 00z cmc actually looks a little better than 12z

Just now, Ji said:

Please for once let the European advanced physics actually benefit us. It’s deadly when its in dr no mode

  Amen to that !!!    There was a time. Years ago when the euro model was known as the king!!  And other models usually caved too it !  But not so much in recent years

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr

https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ

To my untrained eye nam looks better than gfs  unless im reding that 500mb  wrong lol

1 hour ago, Frederick Weather said:

EURO ENS Juiced!

 Euro has been pretty consistent last 4 runs . Maybe euro  trying to reclaim  the name "king" again 

 Never good to hug any model that shows this storm  at the momet, even if it has you in the bulleye.  Reality is the storm is still 7 days q

away!

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But it’s never actually looked that good.  We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. 
 

Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us!  
 

Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 
 

 

As always bro, a great read!!!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still

Well its 7 days out. Hopefully they will  be in better agreement as we get closer.. euro has been pretty consisted  last 3  or 4 runs.