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winter_warlock

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Posts posted by winter_warlock

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Sorry my aggressive posts are directed at the snow gods not you or anyone else.  Yes.  Remember when I kept saying we need it to get to 50/50 over and over.  I eventually stopped because it just wasn't going to happen and it was redundant.  But let me illustrate why that is the magic spot for us...

    5050.thumb.png.c447ef8bec975896781b5b786f527c8d.png

    So picture the flow here around the 50/50...It keeps the flow out of the NW to our northeast providing the cold air but also "blocking" any wave coming along from cutting up to our west...but it also is out of the way enough to give space to any wave coming from the west to amplify.  Look at the blue circle...the northern stream is out of the way pulled to our northeast where we want it.  Something rotating around the 50/50 there usually just acts to prevent a cutter unless the 50/50 is too far SW OR a really strong vort comes along at the exact wrong time then yea we can squash something...but its way less an issue.  SO we have a HUGE win zone...any STJ wave that comes along and tries to track northeast west of us will be forced to turn east or transfer to the coast into the box we need, black circle.  Our path to a win is simple...get an STJ wave to come alone, with the NS way out of the way and room to amplify and try to turn north...get stopped in its tracks by the NS where we want it...and turn east under us.  Boom

     

    But now look at the scenario with a TPV over top of us...

    TPV.thumb.png.8c629baca0ae52f75b1e4242c17b85ed.png

    Look at where the northern stream is directed now...right into the area we want a storm to amplify.  So now...it almost guarantees some NS wave is going to be diving down on top of the STJ where we need a storm to develop. So to get a storm now we need one of those NS vorts (x's) to dig deep enough and play nice and phase with the STJ,  and also we need it not to happen to soon and cut up west and not too late to go OTS and if the NS waves dont dig enough everything ends up north of us or if they don't phase nothing happens at all!  

     

    It's a way more complicated setup and we don't ever seem to do complicated anymore!  This can work.  It has worked.  1966 and 1987 were analogs where this exact pattern worked.  But... I don't think its as easy as it once was because the jet is shifted north and the NS just doesn't dig as much as it used to which is a problem in this specific scenario.  

    Hope this helps... 

    As always bro, very nice read!!! 

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