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winter_warlock

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Posts posted by winter_warlock

    Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    The 0z Euro Control also has a good looking storm for January 2nd that takes a very favorable track. 

    Yes, I know…long range Control run, but nice to see storms like this starting to show up in the upcoming pattern.

    IMG_3669.png

    Wow  euro looks almost identical  to gfs for this storm!!!

    • Like 3

    Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    Signal on the GEFS between Christmas and NYE for a possible threat to track.   We probably want to see a weaker wave slide south of us but I’ll let the smarter folks weigh in.

    image.thumb.png.ba97138dd86fec2ad3610c89a884c09e.png

    Definitely  something to watch. Hope it holds  as we get closer!!!

    • Like 1

    12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Flood Watch

    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016-504-506>508-VAZ053>055-502-527- 090930- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0013.231210T1800Z-231211T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of South Gate, Manassas, Falls Church, Annapolis, Silver Spring, Chantilly, Bethesda, Arnold, Severna Park, Alexandria, Aberdeen, Reston, Arlington, Gaithersburg, Reisterstown, Franconia, Turnbull, Jarrettsville, Cockeysville, Glen Burnie, Washington, Laurel, Lake Ridge, Suitland-Silver Hill, Herndon, Falmouth, Severn, Dale City, Centreville, Clinton, Columbia, Odenton, Ellicott City, College Park, Annandale, Rockville, Camp Springs, Waldorf, St. Charles, McLean, Montclair, Woodbridge, Greenbelt, Baltimore, Elkton, and Bowie 816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Southern Fauquier and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Two to three inches of rain are expected Sunday through late Sunday night with the heaviest rains falling during the afternoon and evening. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop

    December Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

    I counted atleast 20 members of the eps that get snow into Central MD Sunday night. Enough to atleast to coat the grass. 

    Some a little more than that.

    Sterling mentions that!!.....

      

    " a fair amount of ensemble members even
show it occurring further east. As with many other aspects of the
forecast, the finer scale details of the snow forecast remain highly
uncertain four days out."
    • Like 1

    December Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    It's the same as somebody posting a monthly projection here, though. Just like we say "this model still likes some snow at the end of the month"...he did the same. Now yes, Tony is a weenie like many of us, but I don't see anything wrong with this. Don't really think it's "hyping" either. Just like if somebody says the extended models favor a better pattern by then...

    True.   Just irked me lol

    December Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

     Now this is a rant... Tony pann a met in baltimore. Posted a model on facebook,  saying the model is predicting snow by the end of the month.  Now anyone who lnows the weather knows that the model will not look like that by the end of the month.  So why hype it??  Makes no sense and he loses credibility  in my opinion by hyping it!! .. heres the post....

    Screenshot_20231203_121757_Facebook.jpg

    December Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Fwiw..... gfs for central Maryland  for the 6th....  and sterling  discusses it. They are going to monitor it for now....

     

    trailing trough looks to dive across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday night, then move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. The placement of this trough, as well as ridging upstream over the Rockies (with an axis through Idaho) and downstream ridging near Greenland would favor unsettled weather locally. However, the favorable ridge/trough/ridge configuration is transient, lasting only 6-12 hours, so things would have to come together just right for a more impactful storm east of the mountains. There may be enough cold air in place for wintry precipitation types, however, so this period will require close monitoring.

    prec.png

    • Like 2
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