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winter_warlock

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Posts posted by winter_warlock

    December Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 hours ago, jayyy said:


    I can certainly understand why some folks are skeptical, pessimistic, sour, etc. We’ve been burned time and time again over the past 7 years. Besides one winter where extreme N MD did well, the past 7 years have sucked.

    HOWEVER… we spent majority of those years hoping we could thread the smallest needle. That we’d get a snowstorm during a somewhat workable window in what was an otherwise trash longwave pattern - particularly the god awful PAC situation thanks to a persisting la niña, among other factors such as a SER that always seemed to win out. For every positive we had, there were multiple negatives working against us. People clowned on PSU for being a realist when he’d say “hey, I know this looks good, but here’s why it could fail”. As it turned out, he was right pretty much every single time.

    We are in a completely different situation this time around. CAPE, PSU, Brooklyn and many others have taken the time to thoroughly explain the reasons why this winter’s overall pattern is vastly different than years past. Does it mean we’ll see an 09-10 type winter? No. Maybe we do get extremely unlucky again. Wouldn’t be the first niño to fail and it certainly wouldn’t be the last. But the weather doesn’t give a crap about our feelings. At the end of the day, science is the name of the game. It is and always will be the driving force behind our outcomes - good and bad.

    All we can do is analyze what we have in front of us and take it week by week. There are so many tools at our disposal and there is a wealth of knowledge on this forum after you sift through the BS. One of those tools should NOT be operational model clown maps 10-15 days out. If you are already souring on winter because the 18z GFS lost 10 inches of digital snow 300+ hours out, you’re doing it all wrong.

    This is, without a doubt, the best chance we’ve had in years to see some legitimate snowfall. This is the first time in nearly a decade that we will get to analyze the impact of GW on our winter climo during what *SHOULD BE* a snowy season.

    If we happen to see a +PNA -NAO - AO regime fail us in the midst of El Niño, then we can all move on over to the panic room. For now, we wait patiently. Have a good feeling that our patience (if you can call it that) will finally be rewarded.

    Very good post!!!

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Shaulov4 said:

    Haha thank you, I have been lurking in the background for sometime and have been standing in the shadow of PSU and the crew for a long time, going way back to the Accuweather days. Moderated at another forum that shall not be named until it got too crazy, so just happy to be part of a community again. Oh and hello to a good friend @winter_warlocknice to see you ;).

    Heyy ty bro! Good to see u again!!! I was part of another forum i wont name but they got tooo weird and controlling. Im glad to be back here where i joined 13 years ago !! This is the best weather group!!!

    • Like 2

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CAPE said:

    The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.

    1701496800-wtkwTEmlT3U.png

     

    Definitely  nice too see!!!! Very encouraging!!

    • Like 2

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

      From sterling  wx. For  parts of central MD

     

    Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 730 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 MDZ014-210830- /O.CON.KLWX.CF.W.0011.231122T0000Z-231122T1800Z/ Anne Arundel- 730 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level expected in low lying areas due to tidal flooding. * WHERE...Shoreline in Anne Arundel County. * WHEN...From 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday, especially around the time of high tide. * IMPACTS...At 3.5 feet, water reaches the floor of the Maritime Museum in Annapolis, begins to cover Bowyer Road on the Naval Academy campus, and numerous businesses on Dock Street are flooded, along with the City Dock parking lot. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Tides two and a half to three feet above normal. The next high tide at Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy is at 11:18 PM and 11:47 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. && Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. Severn River at Annapolis MLLW Categories - Minor 2.6 ft, Moderate 3.3 ft, Major 6.0 ft MHHW Categories - Minor 1.2 ft, Moderate 1.9 ft, Major 4.6 ft Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 20/11 PM 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 None 21/12 PM 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 None 22/01 AM 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.0 Moderate 22/11 AM 3.1 1.7 2.3 0.5 Minor 22/11 PM 1.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 None 23/02 PM 1.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 None

     

     

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

    I am with you.  I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.

     

     

    I agree!! Definitely  nice to see a change  compared to last year!!

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

    Nice. Wonder how that’ll evolve. Maybe that EC trough turns into a 50/50 while the wave off the west coast undercuts the pna to give us an overrunning event. 

    But that’s wishcasting at this range. 

    Wishcasting or not its still nice to see these possibilities  in November!!  

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023-24 Forecast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    I will keep this relatively brief.  This year was a struggle because there are some unique circumstances that make it difficult to find good analogs/comps.  I will simply lay out my thinking and what I went with for my prediction.  

    Key Factors I included in my forecast

    Analogs

    I heavily weighted more recent analogs and excluded anything prior to 1980.  I am just not sure how much value those seasons are anymore and I felt there is enough data to hint at the pattern without having to go back that far.  This was my subjective decision and does come with risks of narrowing the data available.  

    ENSO

    IMO if you use the ONI data it gives a misleading perception of enso.  Due to a lack of gradient between both the central/eastern tropical basin and the western PAC and northern PAC the influence is somewhat muted compared to what would be indicated by the ONI.  Furthermore, possibly due to the warmer waters in the western PAC than typical, especially for an east based nino, the forcing is currently behaving much closer to a modoki nino than the SST anomalies would suggest.  This makes it very difficult to pick good analogs.  I decided to ignore the raw numbers and go with how this enso is actually behaving in terms of forcing.  I admit this is dangerous and adds some additional level of subjectivity to what is perhaps the most important factor.  But being so important I think I need to take what is my best chance at actually getting this factor correct.  

    Based on the current MEI combined with the ONI, and the current and projected forcing, I think the best ENSO analogs are 2010,2003, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1987.

    Let me point out how my method could be dangerous... if we use the raw SST data 1992 becomes one of the best matches, especially factoring in several other conditions like QBO and Solar.  It might be THE BEST analog...and that would radically change the forecast.  However, the MEI in 1992 peaked at 1.7 during the winter season and the forcing was behaving much more like a strong east based nino, nothing close to what we see now in terms of the atmospheric response to this enso.  SO I am admitting the danger here in excluding it, ESPECIALLY given the other factor/elephant in the room here... the speculation over the impacts of Hunga Tonga.  

    QBO

    We are currently in a descending easterly phase.  This correlates somewhat with an increased probability of blocking during the winter months.  If we filter the ENSO analogs through the QBO lens the following matches emerge...

    2010, 1987,  2003, 2005

    Honorable mentions....

    2015 just missed based on the enso being too weak but is a close QBO match

    1992 just missed based on enso being too strong but is a very close QBO match

    Solar

    We are ascending towards a solar maximum.  

    Years similar to the current phase of the solar cycle are

    2014, 2000, 1988, 1979, 1968, 1958

    Trying to filter enso through the solar cycle we struggle to find any good matches unless we include historical data I struggle to weight highly at this point.  We would get a good enso/solar match with 1958.  Take that for what its worth.  1987 would be the closest match among data I weighted in my forecast.  But honestly, I don't think the data indicates that solar alone is likely to sway the outcome that radically.  Our worst probabilities of a significant snowfall season seems to come as the cycle is descending towards minimum and we are not in that condition now so while we lack many good analogs I feel solar will not be a detriment to our snowfall probabilities.  

    Honorable mention: 1979 is a good solar match AND its actually not a horrible ENSO match if we use the MEI and forcing v pure SST numbers.  

    Intangibles

    Here is where things get dicey.  Almost all the data above points towards a snowy winter.  But there are 3 elephants in the room that significantly increase my discomfort and uncertainty with this forecast.  In order of what I think is most likely to disrupt the forecast...

    1) Current Pacific Cycle

    2) The warmer climate overall

    3) Hunga Tonga

    All 3 of these are on the negative side of the ledger.  WRT Hunga Tonga, I am just not an expert enough in this, nor are there enough examples, for me to be comfortable calculating how much this will influence the winter.  Yes the best example is 1992 and we know what happened.  But 1992 behaved like a strong east based nino.  So how much of that to attribute to which factor?  How similar was this eruption anyways?  I've seen strong opinions either way and I am not going to blow smoke and pretend I have any freaking idea on this one.  

    I do not feel like going on about climate change here.  It's warmer.  We don't have to debate why or if its permanent.  For the sake of this forecast the fact that it is warmer now than it was before is all that matters and factoring how that influences this winter.  Does it lead to a couple super blizzards due to increased moisture transport from the STJ?  Or does the storm path shift north and we get rain?  Again, there isn't enough of a sample size yet, to say.  We have not had a significant nino since the last major temperature spike in 2016 to test this.  

    Lastly... its a net positive I think that this enso is not behaving like a particularly strong one.  However, the risk becomes that it is not strong enough to alter the hostile pacific base state.  

    The Forecast 

    After weighing all the factors I came up with the following "best" analogs, admitting that none were particularly good this year imo, especially considering the amount of subjective weighting I had to use to get them due to anomalous factors in play.  

    2010, 1987, 2003, 2005

    Honorable Mentions: 1992, 2015, 2007

    I see a lot of hedging for this winter...but my results did not show that it is likely we get a near average or slightly above snowfall winter...they showed that it is likely to be either MUCH above average snowfall...or a dud, with only one season in the full range of analogs showing a near normal snowfall winter.  So, despite my reservations, and with great trepidation, I am going with much above normal snowfall for the season.  Temperatures, if anyone cares, near normal.  

    2023-24 Snowfall Prediction 


    DCA: 32"

    BWI: 42"

    IAD: 43"

    Manchester MD: 56"

    Very nice write up bro!!!!!

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

    That looks like some true cold coming into the US close to Thanksgiving

     

    Yup looks like   all 3 major ensembles  are in at least some kind of agreement with the trough and cold in the east.   Looking like our first true winter temps for alot of us

    eps_z500a_us_24.png

    gfs-ens_z500a_us_23.png

    gem-ens_z500a_us_40.png

    • Like 1

    November Mid/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    14 hours ago, CAPE said:

    I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. B)

    Depends where u live i guess.  People up in northern new England  seem to have much more severe decembers then people in mid Atlantic.  I think the enso state affects the mid Atlantic  more then it does the northern new england  area.... i m o

    • Haha 1
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