psuhoffman

I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”.

There is a ridge EVERYWHERE downstream of the pacific. Think…

But that’s part of this feedback loop we’re stuck in. Oceans are crazy warm. So any bad long wave configuration floods crazy warmth across the whole continent blasting away any cold. Then it takes forever to recover. By the time we do it happens again. Repeat cycle a few fines and winters over and I only had to break out my winter coat maybe 5 times all year! This isn’t a refutation of my point it’s support for it imo. The rest of your post is probably accurate. I haven’t thought about it but I left the DC area because I couldn’t take it. I lived in southern NJ and northern VA for 24 years and it wasn’t enough snow for me. So I moved to a location that used to get reliable snow. That averages over twice as much and historically gets a 8” snow almost every year. And now for the last 8 years I’m back to about what I used to get living in VA which was why I left! Yes that’s frustrating! But I try not to complain about my results because while I’m getting what northern VA used to they are getting what NC used to!

We did have a block in Dec and Jan. The Feb one failed. But why does it even matter? Over the last 5 years we had several 3 standard deviating or more blocks that did us no good at all. We torched right through one of our strongest blocks ever a couple Decembers ago. Remember 2021? We had this block in prime climo for 5 weeks and it did DC no good at all. They got a couple perfect track rainstorms though! Lack of blocking is not why we’ve been in this snow drought. A failure of blocks to affect or offset the pacific the same as in the past has been though.

This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH

Because of earthquakes, tidal waves, and volcanoes.

@osfan24 @stormtracker but my point is…even if March 58 did come again it would be a 40 degree rainstorm and we would all be complaining “why don’t we get March 58 storms anymore”.

The fact it’s been crazy warm lately and the oceans are all on fire might have nothing to do with our snow drought that’s getting worse at exactly the same time as it’s getting warmer. We just can’t know.

Another example. yea look at that trough off the west coast extending up into NW Canada blasting pac puke into the conus. I get there is no way we could get snow because…oh wait sorry that’s March 58! The difference is the waters weren’t as warm so pax puke was less puky.

There is a trough in the east there with a strong storm. Here is the h5. Just not cold enough. and yes there is a less than ideal pacific pattern. Yea that’s why it’s not cold enough. Yes it could still snow if everything was perfect. The question is how perfect? At some point if you need it to be more and more perfect to be cold enough it just becomes increasingly unlikely.

Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and…

I’ve had quite a few big March storms in the last 15 years. They were all slightly too warm for 95. Is that bad luck or…

I honestly tried. It’s clear you don’t want a productive dialogue.

Anyone can post anytime they want

One of these years…

Hard to say since last time it got all the way to day 7 before a spectacular collapse. Last time the trouble started imo with changes in the pacific. It started to develop a ridge in the central pacific which shifted everything north and east and disrupted the whole downstream pattern. But we already have that ridge now. I guess if we see signs it won’t actually weaken or quickly redevelops that would be the dagger.

@WEATHER53 It’s hard to have a productive dialogue or any back and forth with you. You pose questions then ignore when someone responds and bull ahead asking it again and again. Just yesterday you asked about why we don’t discuss clippers and I replied and said we have had that discussion lately and even summarized it and then you just ask again. You get frustrated and act agitated when someone challenges you and instead of defending your position and having a productive exchange with them and offering evidence you often get belligerent. You keep railing about model hugging but this thread has mostly been about long range forecasting which is 90% analog based. We’ve been discussing indexes we use in identifying analogs like the PDO and enso but you keep going on this crusade about models. There are like 5 seasonal forecast threads posted in here including mine and I don’t think any of them cited models as a major part of those forecasts. We look at the super long range models FOR FUN but no one bases their monthly or seasonal forecasts on them when we know they have almost no skill at all! I asked you how to improve long range and your first suggestion was “don’t focus on 7+” ok how do I make a seasonal long range forecast and not focus on past 7 days? That’s not helpful. I’ve been trying hard to give you the benefit of the doubt and have a dialogue with you but you don’t seem to want that.

The best is when in a Nina like 2018 he uses a bunch of analogs like 2001 and 2011 that missed our area with snow but he predicts above normal snow here anyways.

2008

@Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago.

The irony is even if he is right about his crazy theories like underwater volcanoes and water vapor (that one is redundant) the effect is the same less snow.

He spent 20 years cultivating a conservative snow weenie base audience.

I was thinking that too

We know the PDO talk is just speculative. But it’s unlikely to flip positive heading into a Nina.