psuhoffman

I didn’t say you were crazy. I acknowledged I saw why some were more optimistic. I didn’t go that way because in the fall the PDO was hanging at -3! All the examples of weak cold enso years with a severely negative PDO were bad. And there were no examples where a PDO was that negative in late fall and rose to around -1 or higher which was the threshold to open the door to a better result. So I dismissed that idea. But here we are. The PDO has skyrocketed and is heading towards neutral! So it’s very legitimate now. I said in my winter forecast the one thing that could cause a huge bust was if the PDO went through a motor phase shift heading into winter. But I said I thought that was very unlikely. It happened. It’s still a weak cold enso. History isn’t great. But there are some good examples now in the analogs if I was to redo them for the current PDO state. Hopefully we can take advantage. We are definitely due for something like this. Way past due.

January 2016 both the gfs and euro keyed in on the hecs right at day 10. Then had it most runs from then on it. It is possible when it’s a well telleconnected major event to sniff of out at this range. But I’d expect more shifts here because there are more NS waves in between now and the event than in 2016 so more chaos to resolve. @Ji the wave on the 6th will influence the wave most guidance thinks in the real hecs threat so be careful what you wish for. Back in 2015 we had a similar kind of setup and everyone was rooting for the first wave to trend better and it did and we for like 4-7” across the DC area but lost the hecs threat 2 days after. I’ll gladly pass up a secs for a legit shot at a hecs. Those storms are so rare you roll the dice when a shot comes.

The little lights aren’t twinkling

There were two storms like that in 94. One was in January. From DC north got some snow at the outset but not much, maybe an inch. Was like 18-20 at the start but quickly transitioned to sleet then freezing rain and we got 1-2” of freezing rain. Then it was crazy cold the week after. Roads were frozen solid. Week ended with a little 1-3” clipper then warmed up. The Feb storm was pure sleep the whole storm start to finish. I think some snow might have mixed in north of 70 in MD. Was about 4” of sleet where I was in northern VA.

Feb 1994

Please tell me you’re just pretending to be this confused. We still get cold snaps. The planet hasn’t warmed so much that there isn’t still damn cold air in winter somewhere in the arctic and once in a blue moon if something displaces that air into the mid latitudes it will still get cold. But record heat is outnumbering cold 3-1. We are spending way more time above avg than below. But the system is chaotic with short term variance within the long term trend. And yes there is evidence we are getting bigger snowstorms when they happen but they are starting to happen so much more infrequently that it’s still a bad trade off.

Is the bus still in one piece?

It’s really close synoptically to 96. It tracks slightly inside where DC wants it. But what a setup.

Ironically a while back I said I just wanted a period where we had at least a chance because 1996 wasn’t walking in the door. And now guidance shows the best cold enso pattern since 1996.

If that doesn’t work… lol

None of the analogs were snowless.

It did actually snow both times we identified a better pattern last year. But not nearly as much as we hoped for.

We really should still be looking at the general long wave pattern at this point not trying to worry too much about specific synoptic threats yet (except the Jan 3-4th wave) but people are getting anxious and acting like the day 10-15 stuff is day 5-10 or even less…

Keep in mind the first 7 days look like this lol

Except all the snow falls the last 7 days. Normally we see the whole 15 day mean look like that…if the run were to continue it would look better than climo. But you’re seeing a below climo week and an above one. This is a pretty good 7 day mean compared to what we typically see recently

He isn’t the same way there. He really knows his stuff and is funny imo when it’s done in moderation which he does there. I think he uses this forum to vent and cope.

You’ll be surprised to learn the guidance is having trouble pinning down the details of a day 13 threat.

I do find it amusing but I know some don’t find him funny. Just wish I could predict snow as well as I can predict Ji.

He knows though. It’s just his coping mechanism.

You really gonna start play by play each run for day 10-15 stuff? I know it’s been a long time and it’s frustrating but that doesn’t change the fact anything past 150 hours is likely to change significantly every single run, like hundreds of miles or maybe not even be there anymore. And even inside 150 we can’t look at details until the final 72 hours. You’re looking at unicorn fantasy land stuff.

Maybe because it was 13 days away. A cow farts in a different direction tonight and things shift 500 miles at that range. Exponential error growth over time and chaos. But you know that you’re just trying to rile up Howard for entertainment.

Everyone does realize what we say here has no effect on the actual weather. It’s just analysis. Who cares what anyone says. It’s what actually happens that matters.

Don’t apologize. Some people here need to toughen up a lot. Seriously. I wonder how some get through life if a few discouraging words about a possible day 10 snowstorm gets them this upset. My god how do they cope when seriously bad things happen?