psuhoffman

Doesn’t have to be an argument if @snowfan stops making this same BS complaint every time I make legit analysts about our climo. I don’t tell him to shut up every time he says something I disagree with, and he says plenty. I just move on. Or maybe I comment that I disagree. But I never ever ever tell anyone what to talk about. He can F off with that BS.

I’m replying to this “what winters have been good” stuff in the other thread. Sorry @WxUSAF whether I agree with every decision or not I should respect your wishes because you put in a lot of work to make this board operate and I apologize for being difficult.

The fact remains as a whole it’s been the worst 8 years in recorded history. So arguments “it’s been good or even ok” seem a bit outlandish.

Yes but that winter SUCKED anywhere not at 1000 feet in our region! And 2022 was good in a very small geographic part of our region. It was “ok” in a larger area but it was still below avg in about 75% of our region. I think categorizing either of those as a “good winter” is an extreme stretch.

@Ji I like you a lot…but the last 8 years have literally been the least snowy in our regions history! So you’re not going to gaslight me with a “it’s not been that bad” argument.

Plus you said “we” then used a year that by your own admission was only good in a small portion of the area. And 2019 frankly was only “good” in about half. I’ve only had one above avg winter in the last 8.

You said since 2014. Then you included 2014. I assume you meant 2019 not 2021 but you still came up 1 short even including 2014.

But it’s not even snow at 4000 feet in the mountains. If it was a sloppy mix that didn’t amount to much near the cities and a big snow NW…I could buy that. Everyone references 1998. But places NW of 95 actually got decent snow that winter from many of those storms. It’s a matter of degrees. It’s weird to see so many deep lows track off the coast and be rain just about everywhere as recently. That’s not normal. Most importantly my case isn’t based on this one storm. Everyone keeps trying to refute me with “this one storm could have been rain before too”. Yes. But my case is a preponderance of evidence. It’s been too many if these in a row.

Name the 5 good winters since 2014

Every time it’s applicable to analyzing something. I didn’t do that not to use it. But let’s cut through the BS shall we. The really disingenuous thing with this tact is absolutely EVERYTHING in this thread is repetitive. We’ve had every possible pattern before. Every type of storm. Every time you discuss a snowstorm you don’t say this. Because it’s a new damn storm. But it’s the same type of storm as hundreds before. it’s the same analysis. The same analogs. And we discuss the history. We repeat the same things over and over. And no one says a god damn thing. When we post a snow forecast map that looks like 500 storms before you don’t say this BS. As long as we’re analyzing why it will snow it’s fine if we repeat the same stuff 100 times. No one has ever told anyone to shut up when they post a similar great looking map to 5000 before. But when I do the same exact thing with a fail and point out how it’s similar to other fails lately and analyze why and compare it to the past and hypothesize why its a fail (hint it’s been really fooking warm lately) then you break out this BS garbage nonsense to suppress a topic you just don’t like. It’s the same repetitive analysis as we do when it’s going to snow! You don’t actually care because it’s repetitive. Because you don’t say a damn thing when we’re repetitive about stuff you like. But that’s hard to win with so you try this BS instead as a passive end around to squash the topic when the real issue is you just dont like what Im saying.

You know who. And ya I know they will never be convinced. It will be 2050 and Baltimore won’t have had a warning event for 30 years and they will still be saying “it’s just cyclical, we just can’t know, underwater volcanoes, aaaahhhhh, don’t talk about CC” because either it’s too depressing for them to admit OR their politics won’t allow them. But in a stubborn SOB! I couldn’t have lasted 17 years teaching HS in inner city Baltimore if I wasn’t. ETA: and I know you aren’t in those categories and my rant wasn’t even at you even though it was a reply to you, it’s that in fairness you give the head in the sand crew ammunition when you say stuff like “well the pattern isn’t actually good for snow”. Yea I know. But we used to and I guess I’m not ready to come to peace with the fact we can’t anymore, get snow in a bad pattern if we get lucky from a perfect wave track.

I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm. Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot! Way more than some here want to admit! Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files… Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern. 1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in. There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING! You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore. There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years. Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is. And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front. Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time? We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976! lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome. But there were some snows too! So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning.

another perfect track rainstorm is the perfect way to end this winter though

Thunder snow!!! I mean it’s more like thunder slushbombs with some rain but I think for about 1 min it was enough slush to make it official. psuhoffman storm verified! lol

Ya not sure March 58 would even be a snowstorm anymore. Not kidding.

I got the thunder and the precip. Just missed the temps. Meatloaf said…

See I told ya my storm would be epic. Thunder. Lightning. Heavy precip. Massive communications disruptions.

But @Terpeast said that would probably just be a perfect track rainstorm now

@CAPEThe GEFS and op Euro are really going stronger with the Scandi ridging by day 10 or so... Look I am still in the skeptical camp that any of this leads to snow for us...but its worth noting that's all. If the heat flux from the Canada ridge and the Scandinavian ridges combine to cause a -NAO, that is not an uncommon progression in a strong nino. It's coming a little late for us here though. Honestly, my WAG is that we do get blocking from this...but that it comes too late for snow...and just in time to give us a miserable March 20-April 15 or so....by late April it won't matter on a sunny day we will warm up regardless of blocking. Who cares what its doing on a rainy day, I'm not chillin outside in the rain whether its 65 or 45.

yes lets have this debate, this will go wonderful

I think this is topical, the only way you're seeing any positive signs of snow is if you are on some pretty good drugs right now. Plus...as some have said, it is time to explore other previously unexplored factors and possible causes. Have we considered drugs? Maybe the right drugs could open up a window to some kind of shared consciousness where by we can actually control the weather. If snow weenies unite we could fix this!

You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs

depends on the drugs

And what are we supposed to do with that? So like 5% of the time the day 12 of the op GFS is actually right. Without knowing when that 5% is how is that even remotely useful? Should I post all the times its ridiculously wrong at day 12? Seriously what exactly is the point of this post?