psuhoffman

It's a very impressive mean, so this is not to deb on it...but the way it gets there is not as sure a thing as when its from mostly one or two defined threats. Instead about 4" of it is from that one event...the rest is spread out across like 5 waves where only a minority of the members have a hit for each one. On the one hand it means we have a chance with multiple waves. But on the other hand...if you just take each one the most likely outcome is a miss...historically in these setups that is a recipe for a possible failure despite a crazy good looking mean, although not usually this good...but in the past that is how we failed when the EPS has some 5 or 6" mean for a week and we thought it looked good...but it was from a few hits on multiple waves and once the members converged on the most likely outcome (a miss) for each wave the mean went down to nada. I am NOT predicting that here, just pointing out one thing to be cautious about...and that is for the waves after next Tuesday. I think some snow from that seems to be a really good bet...enough to make Ji happy...that's another story.

He admitted that look is good yesterday when I posted the extended eps, but he doubts it ends up that way due to recent seasonal trends. Thing is I was in his camp to start the season but I’ve seen enough this winter that I now believe we have broken out of the longer term cycle we were stuck in. The pacific base state is different. I don’t think we get the same end of season torch we’ve had most of the last 6 years. We will see. Betting against warm is risky these days!

EPS has the signal for around Feb 20th, GEPS also...

I think some let those two crazy runs of the GFS/EURO 48 hours ago set their bar unrealistically high. Todays GFS we can throw in there also but as others pointed out its an extreme outlier. But synoptically this was never the best setup for a MECS+ level event. You've pointed it out. I've tried to point it out without being a Deb. This has legit SECS level potential...maybe low level MECS is everything goes totally perfectly and we get lucky...but its just not the setup for a classic 12"+ type storm. But some saw a clown map with 18" and...well...now 6" feels like a letdown.

There have been some similarities to 2009 this year... what if....

op almost has my Feb 20 storm...gives us a couple inches of snow but fails to bring it all together until too far off the coast...but the idea is there.

I wouldn't give up on any of those waves

That’s a good point. But isn’t that a different argument. There is the “that isn’t a good pattern on the guidance” which is one argument. Then there is “I don’t think it will actually look that way” which is fair but a different argument.

Also, there are like a dozen variables. They are almost NEVER all aligned. In almost every sense pattern you focus on the one thing that isn’t perfect. We get snowstorms in slightly flawed patterns all the time. Years ago I looked at every 5”+ storm at BWI going back to 1950. There is a thread with the results somewhere in here. Very few were 100% perfect. The number one factor was the AO. If we had a -AO we can survive flaws elsewhere. We don’t need every index to be right.

That’s the gfs. I posted the EPS

It’s a Greenland block. I’m tired of debating the numerical index.

@Stormchaserchuck1

That’s mine

I’m sorry you’re right the thread was better when you were trying to cause mass hysteria because the 170 hour clown maps keep shifting around every 6 hours.

Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season. I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct.

I can’t tell when a model at day 20 is right or not. But this call was made before any model showed anything. It was based on pattern recognition, analogs and timing the cycles we’ve been in. The fact guidance came around to that only adds some confidence. But I wouldn’t base a long range forecast just on what models show that far out.

I just don’t expect that pattern to last forever.

Might be the first threat of “that” window. I foresee multiple waves while the block decays and the trough is centered in the east. Not sure how extended. March 2018 we had a solid month with chance after chance and frankly it took incredible back luck to only get that one big snowfall. Don’t know if this has that same staying power. But I’d guess even if the block decays quickly we get at least a week which would be time for 2 waves before the pattern breaks down. I’m not out on next week. The EPO is going to want the front to press. The AO is going negative. It’s not the best MECS look for a classic coastal but we’ve scored in fluke atypical setups before. I noted a decent number of “how did that happen” snows when I did that case study of all mid Atlantic snowstorms. Maybe we get lucky again. I just think the pattern after might require less luck that’s all.

Fair point but to play devils advocate, the last 8 years most of the time was a torch earlier in winter also. It’s not like January and February were cold either. An already warm continent doesn’t lend itself to cold March. But we did get a snowstorm March 20 in 2018 from blocking in a late season cold enso. Some similarities and only 7 years ago. 2015 and 2014 aren’t that long ago either. Have things really changed that much or was the warm spring a function of the crazy -PDO cycle we were in? This years PDO does not seem as hostile. I think we might be in the midst of a transition in the pacific out of that long term cycle.

It’s pretty stable after to when the run ends here, then if you believe the extended it peaks a few days after with that image I posted an hour ago you got excited about. I think that’s our best window of opportunity for a real MECS event.

Way too many act like each run at day 7 is going to be the final solution v just another clue. Until we get within a few days I treat each run like one card being dealt in a long night at the poker table. Some act like every run is the last card of the night and they have their entire life savings riding on it.

It did. Slightly. You’re welcome.

Would it be funny if cape, bob and I all came in here one day with a mission of driving all the weenies off a cliff just to see what happens? Don’t worry I would NEVER do such a thing.

South of PA definitely mixes but it’s not the worst look. Yea there is a weakness in the high where we don’t want it but still generally higher pressure all across to our north. If we can get the pressure directly over us about 5mb higher we have a chance. This isn’t that far from a snowier outcome imo.