psuhoffman

Is this where the storm develops? that looks pretty good for us to me.

There are some subtle differences that would help. I only see a couple members that tuck into the Delmarva like the op. The rest are at the perfect position for us just off the Delmarva coast. That would help with the mixing and getting the ccb wrapper tighter and not blowing off the the NW like the op. the op was a northwest outlier among the ensemble members.

I like this...history says this works

Eps surface track both primary and coastal is identical. But the whole system is several mb more amplified and that does lead to a warmer profile. Stronger primary even if it’s not further north will hurt some.

At 72 the eps is SLIGHTLY south in MO with the surface low. But it’s minor. No major differences over 18z

Yea the h5 pass was great but sometimes the surface doesn’t line up perfectly. The primary held on a bit too long.

At 6 hours I don’t see any major changes on the EPS

What else is new

@MillvilleWx the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope.

We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern.

Transfer/capture happens slightly too far north to get huge totals DC south this run.

@MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead.

The gfs has been having some rough times lately.

Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro.

Cmc

That dosent even sound like you lol HECS storms are 90% confined to El Niño’s for a reason. A 5-10” storm in a Nina is good. Doesn’t mean we can’t do better. 96 happened. 2006 came really close...I guess some isolated spots in MD did get 20” so for them that’s HECS level. But I guess my expectations this year are muted. Have to factor in the background state we’re trying to overcome. I do think the euro is more right here. But I guess I also expect it to come down to earth some. Maybe like a 60/40 compromise between the euro and other guidance. That’s still a pretty damn good storm. And if the euro caves and we get a 5-10” storm...that’s not the worst thing in the world.

Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable.

Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also.

I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff.

Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. ETA: not as bad as I thought when adding it all up. But like 48 hours of mostly light precip.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Gefs is SLOWLY caving Imo

Just need the Cmc to capture slightly further south and amp up a little more and it’s the euro.

@stormtracker