psuhoffman

I don't think holding the energy back necessarily ends better. The op GFS ended up an ice to rain storm. Unfortunately any cold shot will likely be short lived. IMO our only real chance at a win here, or higher probability chance, is to get a more strung out boundary with waves riding as the cold presses. That seems to be how that little snow signal to our SE shows up on the GEFS. I don't think a wave attacking established cold will work here, we don't have any mechanism for the cold to resist and so far the seasonal trend is for warm to rout in no time once the SER starts to pump behind any wave.

Thanks, FWIW I am not TRYING to be negative. My pattern analysis is simply my take on what I see. It's been so negative because our prospects for snow have actually been that bad. I don't feel like I am exaggerating it. Likewise, my climate analysis stuff is simply that...we have been struggling to snow lately and I am trying to analyze why and if its likely to change. I am not trying to come up with negative conclusions, but if the evidence leads me there I am also not trying to hide it. At some point things will get better and then my analysis will be more positive, and then you will know it's not just because I am trying to blow smoke up your ass but because I actually think we have a better chance at snow. Isn't that kinda "only analyze when its good" like I said.

Now I know why JB does what he does

So you're saying I shouldn't analyze the pattern unless its what you want to hear?

I don't think its dead. Ive said repeatedly its the best chance we've had. But that's a super low bar. My larger point is...That is unlikely to be a truly snowy period for the mid atlantic. Look at the GEFS snow probabilities... its still way below 50% for 3" across our area...even up here I am below 40%. That's actually below climo! So yes its above the level of recent threats which were near ZILCH...but still its a below climo period overall. But is it possible SOMEWHERE in our area might get a weak wave from this...sure. The GEFS has some hits, enough to cause that little increase in the mean to our SE. That could end up anywhere. But that looks like more of the same crap to me...kinda like last year... 2021-22 snowfall anomalies where one little area got lucky with one wave and if you lived in that small geographic area you felt like it was a decent winter...but in reality it was a god awful snowfall year for the mid atlantic and a crap pattern but the one little area that got lucky with one wave just happened to be right across some of our region. But it was never a pattern that was ever going to lead to a truly snowy year or period in a larger sense. Just one good enough to allow someone to maybe get lucky. So could this upcoming pattern produce that one lucky progressive wave, sure, and could that wave end up somewhere across our area, sure. But its going to be another thread the needle progressive wave, where the "win" zone is relatively small and the odds of any one location getting significant snow is very low and when its over 90% of the mid atlantic is probably still going to be looking at severe negative snowfall anomalies. So I am not getting excited by it. I remain more interested in seeing if the -NAO looks later in Feb are true. There are even hints on the extended GEFS, although the GEFS continues the raging SER even with the next blocking episode later Feb, but if we can time up a less hostile PNA with a -NAO later in Feb that is when maybe we could actually enter a period that I could feel more confident there is a larger percentage chance we actually make up some ground and put down some significant snowfall across a larger area of this region. I want that. If and when I see any hint of it I will be screaming halleluiah from the roof tops. I just don't see it yet.

This is like saying a .350 batter and a .150 batter are virtually the same because "they both fail most of the time"

it's not beating a dead horse its simply analyzing the reality honestly everyday. When things look good I say that too. Back in December I was optimistic. Go back and read my posts for a couple weeks in early to mid december. Because that look actually was good. We actually had a pattern close to ones that worked historically in a -PDO so I was optimistic and no one complained oddly enough even though I WAS DEAD WRONG and it didn't snow. Now in January I keep saying, this just isn't likely to work, these looks are not correlated to snow here in a -PDO, its gonna end up more hostile than it looks day 15 and I have been right over and over and everyone hates me for it lol. I get it people just want snow. But each day when I look at the guidance, analyze it, and decide it still isn't what I want to see to feel confident its gonna snow...I'm going to be honest about what I see and think. I like the analysis, and hopefully the pattern will look better so I can say something truly positive when I break down what I am seeing after a run of guidance.

so you want me to lie to you and make up BS analysis, ok It's a really good setup, despite a lack of blocking and a SE ridge its going to work, we're going to get wave after wave to take a perfect track and save our season. There. Have a good day.

I posted the 24 hour trend showing the degrading look on the gefs earlier. Cognitive dissonance. They really want snow. I get it. If this was 20 years ago I would be guilty of it too. But now I’d rather face reality head on then do what’s necessary for my sanity. For example I called off work so my daughter could play in the snow I got Monday. I wouldn’t have done that for 1.7” that melted by afternoon if I felt we were likely to have way more opportunities. I’m planning a trip in 9 days and already looking at where will probably have snow that weekend. I’m not simply kidding myself into the belief the snow will come to me. If it does great. Bonus. But I’m acting on the assumption it won’t.

Lol we talk like we live in northern Alabama or something

It didn’t have to wait long. Here mid day Feb 1 the front hasn’t even cleared yet. That night early morning Feb 2 the cold has just arrived behind the wave And 48 hours later it’s been totally obliterated without there even being a cutter simply from very ordinary return southerly flow So what’s the window here? I keep seeing this sane general theme, if the cold gets routed that easily were left praying for a perfect timing thread the needle solution. Don’t get me wrong it could happen and it’s a better threat than we’ve had, but I hope ppl aren’t confusing that with a legit good high probability threat. This setup still seems more likely to fail than succeed imo

This is correct in that we have had a couple blocks recently where there was no response in the mid latitude Atlantic under it. That’s troubling. But what’s more troubling are these 2 recent blocking episodes where we did get the 50/50 and it still made no difference. and yea the pac wasn’t good…but back to my point about the pdo, if that’s going to be the pac base state 80% of the time for the foreseeable future we can’t afford to just say “the pac”. We have to look at how we overcame that look in the past. What troubles me in the last 4 times we got blocking recently…it didn’t work! I am in the process of compiling data to see what the % of times we got snow in a -NAO -PDO month during the last -pdo cycle and see what the success rate was to see if our recent -NAO fails are typical or a red flag. But I have to do some real work so I’ll get to that later.

@HighStakes any idea what’s going on in Manchester?

This is the H5 composite for Dec-Mar for the entire 1960s. Looks like the dominant features were the -NAO but also an atrocious PAC with a dominant Aleutian ridge -PNA. But the obvious, even if you adjust for the fact that is using today's climo which skews everything towards the blue...is the fact the mid latitudes were simply colder everywhere. Here are the snowiest periods of the period March 1960 Dec 1961 Feb to Mar 1962 Jan to Mar 1964 Jan 1966 Look at the pacific on all those!!! But it wasn't just the 60s. There wasn't nearly as much snow in the 50's and 70's because the NAO was predominantly positive...but if we look at the snowy periods during those periods we see the same thing...the NAO overcoming the pacific. 1979 Yes there were some exceptions where we got the PDO to go temporarily positive like 1961 or 1978 and those were good years also... but the PDO was negative 80% of the time from 1945 to 1981 and yet we still managed to average significantly more snow during that period than we have since when the PDO averaged positive 72% of the time. I have some thoughts on possible reasons "why", some AGW and some not, but perhaps we should continue that over in the other thread to avoid the shitstorm that would result here... but this is why I keep harping on the idea WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO SNOW IN FLAWED PAC PATTERNS. Look at the pac during those snowy periods above. If we are in fact entering a long term -PDO cycle THAT IS HOW IT HAS TO SNOW!!! The pac is probably very rarely going to look the way it did most of the more recent past with some huge epo/pna ridge. That was almost NEVER the winter base state during the last -PDO period. But that is not a valid excuse for no snow because we got plenty of snow in the last -PDO, we just had to overcome the awful pac pattern with other factors.

because that's when it snowed

0z looked better than 6z but slightly worse than yesterdays 12z. Maybe it’s a bounce but it’s bouncing subtly the same direction everything else has, the wrong way. Look I hope you’re right and this is different. I’m just skeptical.

That threat was. But before that we were looking at the Feb 1 wave and before that the Jan 28 wave and before that Jan 25 was the one. For the last month every wave looked good day 10-15 then trended to the same garbage by day 7. Some because the track. Some took a perfect track and we’re just too warm. But it’s been the same dance for weeks. Now eventually one of these will break through and become a real threat. I mean I hope so otherwise we will never snow again lol. But given the constant head fakes all season I’ll continue to be skeptical until it’s inside day 7.

I want this to be “real” as much as anyone. But as the “window” starts to broach day 10 I see the same trends with every other threat period all year. 24 hour trend on gefs for the 7 day snowfall centered on our period of interest. Hopefully today we bounce back.

I made a really long post about this in my “other” thread yesterday but this is totally about a cyclical pattern not AGW so I’m repeating the cliffs notes version here and y’all can deal with it. It seems we’ve transitioned into a -PDO regime. The last long term -PDO was from 1945-1981. If true we can expect the pna to be “hostile” the vast majority of the time the next 30-40 years. If you look back at 1945-1981 the way we overcame that was mostly one thing. Blocking blocking blocking. A -NAO would suppress the attempted SER and lead to a broad mid latitude trough coast to coast under the block. Here is the h5 for 6” snows at bwi during that period. Keep in mind that uses 1990-2020 climo so the blue is exaggerated due to todays warmer normals. but you can see the longwave pattern. Note there the pna is still negative but not crazy negative. The path to snow during our last -pdo was to time up less hostile pac periods with a -NAO. The problem is our last 4 blocks failed totally for the same reason, it just wasn’t cold enough. That has nothing to do with the pac. It’s rare to get a NAO block AND a big epo ridge. Those 2 have a negative correlation. A -NAO was how we overcame a bad pac from 1945-1981 so when we get blockinF fails and ppl say “but the pac” I roll my eyes because the pac is going to be utter garbage the next 35 years, the NAO is supposed to be how we offset it. The positive NAO periods during the last -pdo cycle were awful by that periods standards. But the -NAO periods were very snowy DESPITE the pacific.

I hate to try to translate his “stuff” but if what he really means is we would be better off given the Nina/TNH base state if we got a TPV displaced into eastern Canada along with a +PNA (remember he is also predicting a +pna, ironically since guidance is now hinting maybe…) he is right. It’s not the greatest pattern but a “south biased” +NAO in conjunction with a pna ridge is better than anything else if we accept the N Amer thermals will struggle AND a SE ridge will try like hell no matter what. In that reality a Tpv over is suppressed the SE ridge and provides a cold source and the pna gives us a shot to keep waves under us. But the pna is the key. If the NAO goes positive and the pna stays negative we’re royally fucked.

Guidance has seasonal tendencies. They used to be more consistent. For years the GFS was too cold and would adjust north like clockwork. The euro would cut off too often and leave energy behind. But now with constant updates these biases change year to year. But this season guidance has made 2 key errors at day 10+. Underestimated the SE ridge and overestimated TPV displacements. Those 2 continuous adjustments take a pretty good day 10 look and turn it into garbage for us by day 5.

This tells the story

Do you really think “everything’s fine” or are you just trying to prevent negativity? If it’s the layer I can respect that. I do. But if it’s the former…I used to be on the side you seem to be here but that was years ago when we were in a drought that was historically sucky but normal and wasn’t nearly this bad. We’ve now entered totally unprecedented levels of suckage both on seasonal (many regional locations are close to or already have set records for latest without snow) and longer term (least snow last 7 years) levels. But you’re talking like this is just normal par for the course. Maybe on the eastern shore sure…but further NW it’s unheard of to be this snowless for long stretches year after year like this. It’s sad that many use last year as some high bar when really it was just a lucky fluke some places in here ended up near median. Look at the snow anomalies for last winter. That tiny little area that just happens to run through our general area of near normal is surrounded by 500 miles of below in all directions. It’s just an artifact of crazy good luck in one event in a location where avg snowfall is so low that can skew results. Last year was another crap year where 90% of the mid Atlantic struggled just like the last several. Some local places just got really lucky.

This isn’t normal for a Nina. BWIs avg snow through Jan 31 in a Nina is 10.3”. Never been shutout. Manchesters avg is 18.4”. Least is 6.4”. Nina’s have less variance. They are rarely good but rarely really awful either. But I’ve been trying in this thread lately. Pointing out ways we “could” get something even if I don’t really buy it. But this gets old…look at Jan 28 4 days ago and now. now the cold comes Feb 2-3 ok. Let’s see what it says in 3 days….

Winter is just a shitty period now