psuhoffman

Except a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO is a really really really bad correlation to snow. The EPO alone actually has absolutely no correlation to snow beyond noise. A -EPO +PNA combo has "some" correlation to snow. A -EPO/+PNA/-NAO has a very high correlation...but get this...a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO has an even higher correlation to snow. In short...a -EPO as taken as an individual pattern driver has the lowest correlation to snow of all the major global indicators we look at (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO). And a -EPO with a bad atlantic actually is usually a total fail cold dry warm wet pattern.

How to get a SER despite a displaced PV trapped under a ridge bridge!

I found the front cover for my book

It’s Feb before DC and Balt get any snow and it’s “rushing” things. God help us if it ever takes it’s time.

There are still other major issues. And it’s possible “fixing” the temps if it required bastardizing other sound equations to do it, was a net negative. I’d rather a known bias than a wildly inconsistent and inaccurate mess.

It was and it largely worked which is why the Gfs doesn’t tease blue every run anymore.

We have a favorable pac already. Problem is cold takes a while lately to build. So we wait. But also an epo alone won’t do it. We need some other mechanism. Either AO or -NAO help or a TPV displacement that can serve as a proxy. We got the tPV help in 2015 for example. We got some AO help in 2014. I highly doubt, at least until later Feb, we get NAO help. But we might get a tpv displacement. The holy grail save would be if we get a tpv displacement early Feb then roll into a -NAO after it lifts and with a cold regime established. That’s the way we could pull a rabbit from a hat here.

The last 2 times a TPV displacement teased then failed us it fell apart around day 7-8. The initial TPV split happens tomorrow. That’s a lock. But what really does the trick for us is around day 7 as the tpv attempts to consolidate the wave breaking from the EPO and WAR splits it a second time! That weakens it enough to allow it to be bullied south. If that fails this all falls apart again. I’m about 24 hours from feeling confident it’s real. Guidance has been remarkably good inside 7 days with key features. If the big 3 hold through 0z Wed I think we can start worrying about specifics not whether the whole pattern fails. Then of course we worry about the details we still would need luck with.

There are 2 factors to watch. Guidance is bad at accurately predicting both. The first is where the best area of WAA precip sets to north of the warm front. Often this is where the best mid level SW flow meets adequate cold air resistance. This will be that streak of precip that breaks out from WSE to ENE north of the boundary ahead of the storm. We know the drill…if that’s aimed north of us it’s game over. But guidance isn’t good at placing that until inside 24 hours. The second is the intensity of the banding inside that feature. If you get heavy enough precip it can hold off the WAA a bit longer by mixing the column d also because the inflow created by the banding can create a bit of a northerly flow and temporarily resist the larger southerly flow. This combo can cause a good bust where 1-2” becomes 3-5” quick. Hard to ever really predict that though. Kinda just happens usually. But first we need factor 1 to go our way to have a shot at 2.

I missed some meetings. Something really important came up.

You could probably add 12-15” to the seasonal avg. It wouldn’t have the same impact as Deep Creek because there are too many ridges to the west to get a ton of upslope but it would add 1-3” to each event. Might have a bit more impact than Catoctin because we get more precip here from coastals.

Same here. It was 33 during most of the snow. The valley below me, where @HighStakes is, has visibly less. 1100 to 800 feet made a difference. Similar to a Dec 2020 storm where I got 3” and in the valley just a coating. My house before I left. A half mile away in the valley

Tapering off now. 1.75” on the deck

2nd game in Dallas was without Hurts, Eagles turned the ball over 4 times which is very uncharacteristic of them, and they were missing Lane Johnson and their slot corner and safety who is also a great slot and slides over usually when Maddox is out. Dallas took advantage of that and kept hitting the TE and slot WR v a scrub. Objectively you take away just 1 or 2 of those Gardener turnovers, inject a healthy Hurts, Lane, and CJGJ and put the game in Philly…. I think Philly is a better team. Not saying Dallas couldn’t win. If the eagles have a bad day and Dallas has a good day it can happen but Dallas doesn’t scare me. SF is an unknown. They have looked really good but mostly v unimpressive competition. They haven’t beaten any of the elite teams either. They did play KC this year but got smoked. Had they beat Dallas like a red headed step child I might wonder if they really are next level. But they looked very much on the same level as Dallas today. Dak was god awful. He has a better game and Dallas could have won.

I’m just glad SF is struggling with Dallas. I know the eagles are better than Dallas and would handle them pretty easily at home but I wasn’t sure about SF. Seeing them struggle and look pretty ugly at home v Dallas makes me feel a lot better.

Both are warm weather teams so not in this game but the fact they are both here is another page in by book.

Neither of these teams is scaring me right now.

They could get some decently upslope Thursday

I know you think you are a man. Well a man is the king of his castle. And a king is a ruler. A ruler is 12”. So…are you sure you’re a man. Sorry had too.

I would be thrilled if I got 20” the rest of the way.

For future reference purposes I wanted to post the day 2-7 mean above. That’s remarkably close to what was being advertised at day 15. The pattern didn’t fail. But a -epo full latitude N amer trough pattern isn’t a good one for snow here. Never has been. It can work but usually only if we have either a displaced PV into southeast Canada (that’s the hope dat 10-15) or a -NAO with a 50/50. Without either of those the SE ridge will resume the minute there is any return flow if approaching wave. We need warm air pressing at cold. That doesn’t work if there isn’t a mechanism for the cold to resist. Otherwise we’re left praying to thread the needle and just get lucky with perfect timing and track of some boundary wave which is how we’ve been getting most of our snow the last 7 years but that’s why we’ve had so little! To get a truly snowy period (not talking a whole season I’d be thrilled with a snowy 10 day period with 2-3 events) we really need a pattern with some mechanism to resist the SE ridge. A tpv in eastern Canada would do it. A 50/50. Blocking historically is the best way but lately that’s failed a lot because there wasn’t enough cold in N Amer to get the typical response in the mid latitudes. I’d like to see that later in the season though when there is a colder profile to start. I still think that’s our best chance at getting more than just one lucky fluke.

Just wanted to say your analysis of the look is spot on. It’s a very good look. But my pessimism is that based on trends lately I suspect the TPV displacement will be less severe (we’ve been head faked twice this year so far with that) and if we see any degradation of that feature the SE ridge will end up a lot worse. That’s been a repetitive error in the long range. So if we do get the looks you’re citing I think we do have a great chance. I just am skeptical and feel the most likely adjustments will make the reality not quite as favorable as it looks now. But that’s just me injecting a gut feeling not any guidance.

The look around day 12-15 could work. But it’s not great, still more se ridge than I like to see, especially given the trend for the se ridge to be under represented in long range guidance. I give it a shot but I’m actually more interested in what might happen later given the complete obliteration of the PV coming up. If the PV does get wiped out I’m not sure it takes the typical 3-4 weeks for effects here. Most of the times we’ve been waiting on a strat event to help we need cold to build. That’s happening now just not with a mechanism to help is here. But it’s not going to be far away. And this doest look like a wind reversal just a case where the PV severely weakens. So I’m not sure the typical ridge spike effect happens here. Of the PV simply weakens blocking could resume quickly and at a time of year it helps more and with cold close it’s possible things flip quicker than normal. Still talking later in Feb but that’s a lot better than into March. Every week counts a lot at that point. There’s a lot of maybe in there but that’s my last hope to get an actual save here. I could see us licking into one wave maybe early Feb but if we want a truly snowy period I think later if we get blocking is the best chance.

Northern New England ski season looks to improve at least. I’ve moved on to planning weekend ski trips.

Maybe if we’re really lucky we’ll get a track like this