psuhoffman

I’m totally fine with all the woulda coulda shoulda after a win.

Hello was I not loud enough??? God no one listens to me.

12z combined bwi ens snow probability through 0z 2/6 1”: 33% 3”: 6% 6”: 3%

One of the things I hope this probabilities calculation will help with is to dispel the perception the NWP is constantly “teasing” is with predicting snow. Sometimes it does. It’s certainly not perfect. But more often what I see is a situation where maybe a run or two of one op model shows snow over a day or two but it’s never the preponderance of evidence. But we give that gfs rub that shows a snowstorm way more attention than the other guidance that doesn’t. Or the eps might for a couple runs look snowy but the gefs and geps isn’t. Or people see a 3.5” snow mean and thing the guidance is saying they think we will get 3.5”. That’s not what a mean means. Lol. If the mean is 3.5” but the probability of snow is 40% it’s actually saying we probably won’t get anything. I hope this gives a better indication of what the guidance actually thinks our chances of snow are. At no point during this window we’re tracking was the chance of 1” higher than ~50% or the chance of 3” above 30%. Guidance never teased us. It always even from 12 days out was saying we had a chance at 1-2” somewhere in our area with wave 1 and anything else was a super long shot. That’s still where we are now.

If we can only get what used to be a normal amount of snow during one specific type of one specific enso state that happens 1/15 years…

0z combined ens probability through Feb 6 1”: 36% 3”: 10% 6”: 5% Unless this period makes a comeback at 12z it’s provably time to move on and start tracking through Feb 12 since there are some attempts at false hope in the Feb 7-10 range. There is the chance of 1-2” somewhere with wave 1 but that’s honestly best tracked with the operational runs at this point. The main threat we were tracking in this period looks like a fail at this point

Let us start the day with a prayer. Lord…on this your day, please send your providence down upon the 49ers, give them the strength so that they may endure the unmerciful, unholy, horrific beating that will be inflicted upon them later today. We pray that you give them the fortitude to come out of this trying experience without their egos completely destroyed. Give them the foresight to see the better days that most surely lay behind this tragic day. For them we ask for your mercy lord. In the name of the father, the son, and the Holy Spirit. Amen.

If it's only going to snow in west based ninos....you are in big trouble this! 2019 was a Nino. But it wasn’t the “perfect” kind of Nino. Yea. True. But I keep rolling my eyes when people point out the minor imperfection (either seasonally or synoptically) that is the reason it didn’t snow because if the only time we get snow is the 1/10 years we get a west based moderate Nino or that once in a blue moon that every single one of like 200 synoptic variables all go perfectly we’re cooked.

2009-10 wasn't that long ago lol. How Many ninos have we had just like 09-10 since tben..im gonna guess 0. Closet...maybe 2016 and we got a hecs Even if Baltimore got a repeat of 2010 next year…the last 7 have been so bad it would still only get the 8 year period to a 17” avg! And that’s if we got our snowiest winter ever! I am not arguing we won’t get snowy winters again but I think it’s Unlikely we return to averaging 20” in Baltimore

The good news is it can’t be worse! Im skeptical how much it will help myself. But at least then we will know. If we get a modoki Nino and Baltimore gets 7” or something, after the last 7 years also, we know the party’s over and it’s time to just move on. This is simply the new normal. My guess though is that better is still better. The question is how much better. But I do think we are still capable of 20”+ seasons. But the bad years will likely continue to be so bad that the decades of Baltimore averaging close to 20” are probably out of reach.

We’ve had small periods as bad as anything before. We’ve never had a prolonged period as bad as 2017-now. No one season or event fail alone is alarming. But the cumulative evidence is becoming worrying.

Hemispheric energies are low

The cliffs notes version

We’re due and all that

It’s only cold because the wave is 500 miles south of us. Had it amplified and come north the boundary would have also. We’ve seen this run after run.

So close

In the higher elevation of western NC sure. But no one under like 700 feet is getting accumulation with those boundary thermals.

Every once in a while a crazy anomaly happens. But on that 12z run things went like 95% right and it still didn’t work with that next wave. Last weekend we had a perfect track coastal and no one even noticed as it was raining. We’re in real bad shape.

Impressive! but actually check the thermals. Surface temps are 34-37. White rain.

There is just no win to be had here. Until we see stream interaction in which there is actually a legit frozen representation to the north of storms at or south of our latitude…we are just rearranging deck chairs. There is no real path.

lol

Why...was there a se ridge? There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade

Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal!

12 bwi ens probabilities through 0z 2/6/23 1”: 49% 3”: 29% 6”: 5%

Like I said...the whole run looks more like you would expect a run in early November to look.