psuhoffman

But more importantly where is it centered? If we get an east based Nino with the raging warm northwest pacific and western Atlantic... we are likely going to torch. Frankly that will make things worse! Like trying to fix your stab wound by shooting yourself in the face.

If that's the SST anomaly heading into next winter I am predicting +20 with negative snowfall. That's right that winter will be so awful it will go back in time and steal all our snowfall from previous winters.

I agree, except its not really cluttering the thread because without these spats there would probably be nothing at all to discuss other than a once a day "yup still looks the same" post. I think some just want to converse about the weather (so its not banter really) but since there is nothing positive about the pattern it ends up inevitably steering into these side debates. Ji's post that started this most recent tangent was valid...and belonged here...it just got more attention and discussion because there isn't much else to talk about.

K

I tend to agree BUT if we wanted to play devils advocate (I look at both sides of everything) look at 2019 The pac looks really familiar there… So I do think (hope) that was just a fluke and maybe being weak (but not weaker than other ninos that still had a canonical pac pattern) it failed to impact the pattern the way a stronger Nino would. But it’s suspicious it happened in the most recent and only test case we have so far during this run of pacific awfulness. My money is on a modoki Nino causing more snow. But I think it’s fair to at least entertain the possibility the pac trouble runs deeper than enso.

No one is saying a Nino (at least a central or west based) isn’t better or definitely won’t help. But the speculation is because some studies recently correlated two of our biggest issues wrt the pac with non enso causes due to overall SST warming. Given the failure of the 2019 Nino to significantly impact the pac base state I think it’s fair to at least speculate. Yes the 2019 Nino was weak but it’s also possible, if unlikely, that ninos will have a harder time overcoming the pac base state of other factors are driving it.

Yea as an avid skier I used to have to worry and stress about planning and being flexible so I didn’t miss a big snow at home. Now…naw just plan my ski trips.

K

2004 was below avg snow but decent. But look at the north pac and atlantic SST's that year It had a lot going for it outside the enso state. And it was coming off an el nino. 2015 was a weak modoki nino actually. 2014 has been the only good enso neutral winter we have had in the last 30 years. Other then that have all been pretty bad. 2004 was the next best but again, it had a lot going for it in other areas. If we get enso neutral with the current north pac and atl base states we will torch all winter.

Stop... I can tell what is going on... you are placating yourself with the thought that next year is likely to be a nino and it will finally snow and now Ji is posting evidence that bursts that bubble and you are going to find and cling to anything to protect that bubble...but the truth is there is no guaruntee next year is a nino just because of the string of recent Nina's. Furthermore there is some evidence that the warming pacific might cause increased prevalence of nina. I have no idea on that, I've read it thats all...but if that is true we might have a nina most of the time. And a neutral is even worse. And if a nino is east based with a warm northeast Pac which we have now...those are downright awful also. Frankly...right now simply playing the odds we have a 75% chance that next year will suck also. So stop getting your hopes up then freaking out when they get crushed. Just stop expecting it to snow. Then when it does be happy instead of constantly having to be emotionally crushed when the 25% chance doesn't happen each year.

@Ji You can "take your chances" all you want but ill lay down this marker right now... if we do get enso neutral next winter and the north pacific looks anything close to the hot mess it does there on all 3 of those projections...and the Atlantic also continues to be on fire, which every projection I've seen shows.... next year will suck just as much as this one. This year looked bad but actually had more going for it than next year would if those are the base states. And no, just because it's been bad and we really want it to snow does not mean next year has to be better. Remember last summer I said it looks really bad but still a long ways to go so just hope it changes... that is the same. That last projection is god awful, just hope it changes which it very well could from this range.

Why would you take your chances with enso neutral? They have been our worst enso state the last 30 years.

Again, what is the point? There were warmer climate periods in the past. Maybe we are cycling into another warmer period on a longer time scale. That does not change the fact it is getting warmer right now compared to the periods we are comparing it too which is the more recent past. And so what if it was super warm at some point in time hundreds of years before I was born...is that supposed to make me feel any better about getting less snow now?

People acknowledging ALL evidence and analyzing it is not the end of the world.

By my estimate the eagles are more talented at every position group except 1, qb. So the SB comes down to can PM overcome the significant talent advantage the eagles have everywhere else.

Everyone. The temps aren’t colder. It’s just weaker with the precip. This isn’t a case where a south trend helps places south.

We’re talking such a minor feature here it’s likely for some guidance to be missing something. No way to know which though.

Keep in mind though we’re talking about placing fairly minor banding accurately. If this was a larger system we wouldn’t expect a meso banding feature like this to be accurately depicted. It shouldn’t be shocking if a .5-1” band set up anywhere because we’re talking less than a tenth inch of qpf to make that difference here.

I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care! Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way.

I looked just not, it got wetter but it’s trending south. 3 runs ago it had the max snow band up near PA now it’s south of DC

No idea but I remember in March 2018 there was an event where northern MD was supposed to get 4-8” the next morning. All 12z and 18z guidance had it. Then around 20z the hrrr started going to crap. Someone said “don’t worry the euro isn’t going to be that wrong 24 hours out, I’ll die on that hill”. Most were ignoring the hrrr Then the 0z NAM came out and shifted everything 100 miles east also. The rest of the 0z followed suit. HRRR sniffed it out between runs. My take is no one hrrr run means much. But it’s troubling if over 3+ consecutive runs it starts trending the wrong way inside 24 hours.

That looks south of previous rap I saw though.

Thanks for bringing this thread back to where the focus should be.

No ensembles aren’t that useful at this range.

It doesn’t which is why I tend not to go back prior to DCA records. But he did so…. If you only start at DCA the trend is still down.