psuhoffman

They did fine if you knew how to use them. Model output isn’t meant to be a plug and play forecast. They are possible permutations. You have to apply some intuition based on knowledge to the equations. Some of us were never fooled by the chaos induced colder long range looks. The ensembles never broke down the central pac ridge or pac NW trough that was driving the SER. The fact they kept losing the SER was just an error. But if you corrected for that error they did a good job.

You might need an intervention

Some will talk for days about a natural disaster but analyzing snow data is too much to bear. Lol. Im a very analytical person. Not everyone is. And that’s ok. I can’t produce beautiful works of art or hit a 3. Everyone has gifts. But I don’t shit all over art that I don’t understand or don’t like. Yet non analytical types will shit all over data analysis even when it’s clear they don’t really comprehend what it’s showing. That part annoys me. I don’t mind discussing weather even if it’s not what I want. But I don’t only analyze bad snow trends. Only a few years ago I posted a whole thread, literally like 20 posts, analyzing every warning event we’ve ever had and what trends and patterns lead to snow. No one minded that analysts. Oddly no one argued with that data. I enjoy analyzing weather. I would prefer that analysis was of snow. But since it’s now snowing the only analysis I can do is “why isn’t it snowing”.

I agree but it is the official recording station for DC. I can’t change that.

Y_S would you like to buy a vowel?

Some individual years have been more snowy. Mostly when we get a HECS. Those also seem inflated lately. But if you look at longer decadal periods no. Go back to my post this morning.

The most recent “snowy” cycles were not as snowy and the 1960s and other snowy periods prior to that.

I think maybe we need to emphasize statistics more as a society.

So use BWI. 2017-2024: 64”. 1950-1957 84.1”. Im not trying to misrepresent the data or skew anything. The most recent 7 years are the least snowy at all 3 official recording stations. And the least snowy at the 3 non official non UHI locations I looked at to examine if it might be a UHI issue.

The periods I was comparing were 2017-2023 and the previous worst 7 year period on record 1950-1956. We most definitely will still get a snowy winter or snowier period, that wasn’t my argument. But the snowy and non snowy periods have been getting less snowy.

I used 2 locations outside the UHI to show the phenomenon is not totally a UHI issue. So this is kinda am irrelevant argument

Lol

Just ignore him. I do. I will engage with almost anyone no matter how much I disagree so long as they are grounded in reality and arguing in good faith. He is either NOT grounded in reality or is not acting in good faith. He refuses to even acknowledge there is any trend at all no matter how much evidence is provided. He has repeatedly said things that are so utterly ridiculous and contradictory that there is no way to have a logical debate with him if he isn't operating from the same reality we are.

I looked at 2 coop sites near here, Westminster and Hanover and both were worse the last 7 years than that comparable period in the 50's. The departure is SLIGHTLY closer than DCA so it is fair to say some of this is UHI, but looking at other non UHI locations in the area seems to bear out that this period is in fact worse than the 50's in our area even accounting for UHI.

@SnowenOutThere there is no comperable period to this. Not even close. The 1950's were our next closest awful snowfall period...but the worst 7 year period during that stretch was from 1950 to 1956 where DCA had 68". The last 7 years DCA has had 47.7". It's not even close. To avoid this being the worst 8 year period ever next season DCA will need 34.5" of snow. Anyone want to bet on that? Please, my children's college fund could use a boost. It gets even worse after that because all previous periods like this were bookended by huge snowfall periods. For DCA to avoid the worst 10 year period they need to average 31" over the next 3 seasons! Who wants to take bets on that? Again...please. I am sure we will get a snowy winter sometime soon. And clowns like him will try to say "see there is no trend in snow" but we don't just need a snowy season. It's been so bad for so long...we need what would be an unprecedented snowy period over several years just to get back to not being the worst period ever. I really don't think some get just how bad it is compared to previous standards.

He is on my ignore list so I didn't see his original post...but if its the chart I think it is I can explain. That chart is incredibly misleading when comparing trends over eras because it normalizes seasonal snowfall to each era. In the 1950's DC's avg snowfall was still about 17" so a 17" season would show up as normal on the chart where as a 17" season now would show up as above normal since DC's avg is now down to 14". That kind of chart is useless for showing a trend because by normalizing each season to a running mean it masks changes in the mean. It is simply showing you the cycles of getting above and below normal snowfall in a given period for the avg of that given period. It's fine for showing up and down cycles of snowfall but useless for showing changes or trends over time within those cycles.

Another concern I have revolves around where we are in the snowfall cycles. There is a lot of variability and random chaos within our snowfall climo. That is because historically we can fluke our way to a single storm even in a bad pattern. A good pattern doesn't always produce. There is some randomness to getting a good or bad pattern in any cycle. But within that seasonal and decadal variability is a clear trend where we get better cycles for snowfall and worse. My fear is that our snowfall decline has been worse than we knew because it was being masked by what was actually a "snowy" cycle from 2000-2015. Let me illustrate what I mean... the late 40's to late 50's was a bad longwave base state for snowfall here and prior to this current period was probably the worst long term era for snowfall in our area. This was actually the most comparable pacific cycle to the one we are in now, so not surprising we had low snowfall during that era also. But keep this look in mind later when we see the current pattern. The next cycle 1958-1971 was our snowiest period since the 1800s mostly driven by a consistent -NAO. Which was followed by a shorter cycle of a hostile pacific without NAO help in the 70s that was pretty bad for snowfall...This was another period compared to the current one. Again it was bad for much of the same reasons WRT the pacific but keep this look in mind when we compare to our current period later Which was followed by again a more favorable snowfall period from 1977 to 1988. But... look at the pattern...and look at our results. That base state pattern from 1977 to 1988 was actually BETTER than the one in the 60's but with much lower snowfall results. It could be argued our snowfall decline began to accelerate during this period...but was being masked by the fact we were in a generally good pattern which allowed for some big seasons and enough snow to mask that it should have been BETTER. We then entered the next really awful period of snowfall from 1989 to 1999. With the exception of 1996 this was a brutal stretch of snowfall winters and the pattern below justifies that. Mean +NAO and -PNA. This should have been an awful snowfall period based on the pattern so there is nothing to really take from this other than it was just a bad base state cycle. But look at 2000 to 2015. This should have been a GREAT snowfall period again in line with the 1960s. But again it was muted. Yea we did better than from 1989 to 1999 and better than we have done since...but while places further to our north like NYC and Boston were getting absolutely berried with snowfall way above their normal during these 15 years...we were basically just averaging...about avg. This should have been a HUGE red flag...that places north of us were getting record snowfall during this cycle and yet we were unable to really take advantage and were just too far south and warm to get similar results. I don't mean we should have had the same snowfall as NYC or Boston...but the same ratios. If they were 150% of normal during this period we should have been 150% also. It should have been a huge warning that they were 150% of normal and we were only able to pretty much be avg during a period that should have been extremely snowy given the pattern above. Now... look at 2016 to 2023 There are a couple take aways here. First the longwave pattern is again hostile. This would be a down period in any era. BUT...this is NOT as bad as the 50's or 70's or 90s. We have had a -AO over this period. That should have mitigated some of the hostile pac. Those other awful periods had both a hostile PAC and a hostile AO. Yet this period has been significantly less snowy than those other hostile cycles. WHY? There is one very obvious difference. I mean come on.... this is not about climate change. This has already happened. Look at all the red! Its just so much warmer. Look how little blue there is ANYWHERE! Now go back and look at all those eras I posted...and look at the trend in the blue/red. It's got warmer over each era if you take the whole northern hemisphere as a whole. This is ridiculously obvious. But the super nino in 2016 sent this trend into hyperdrive. It created a new significantly warmer base state for the cycle we have been in since. This is not political or controversial...yes we are in a down cycle, yes this would be a low snowfall period no matter what era we were in with this pattern...but the reason this period has been so much worse than previous bad cycles is its so much warmer so we don't get as many fluke lucky snows in bad patters anymore because a bad pattern is warmer...and just too warm to get snow no matter what the storm track is. But IMO the acceleration of the downward trend in our snowfall actually has been going on for a while but was masked by the fact we were in an incredibly snowy period in terms of the longwave pattern which was hiding the fact our snowfall was decreasing. Now what I don't know is whether this trend reverses itself at all. Does the effect of the last super nino wane at some point and was this a warmer period within the longer term warming. But everyone seems to be rooting for another nino...great...and yea that probably would help our chances of snow in that given season...but there is a chance we are rooting for something that will make the majority of our seasons when we arent in a perfect pattern even worse by again accelerating the warming trend on a larger scale. But now we are getting into predictive discussions and everything I have posted above is NOT predictive it is simply pointing out what has already happened and how we got to where we are now.

The base state longwave pattern this winter was hostile for us. This would have been a below avg snowfall winter here in any era. But I think getting really awful almost no snow winters is going to become more common. Actually it already has, thanks @North Balti Zen for the data above. There was nothing that uncommon about the general pattern this year. We have had numerous years with a similarly hostile longwave pattern in the past. And most of those years we managed to fight our way to 8" or 10" or something in that ballpark across most of the area. We had some variability. We had a period in December and March with a workable pattern. We also got some perfect track storms during a bad pattern that in the past we could luck into some snow even in a bad pattern. But lately...decent patterns that only last a week or two don't often work out. Part of that is it seems our "hit" ratio on threats even in better patterns is lower lately. Another part of that is it gets so freaking warm across N America when we are in a bad pattern...that we often waste most of a better pattern just getting it colder...and by the time we get cold air the pattern is breaking down. ANd it is so warm in bad patterns that trying to luck our way to a fluke snow is almost impossible. That wasn't always the case. Unfortunately I think this is likely to remain the normal. We will still have good seasons. There will be years where the longwave pattern is good and promotes cold air directed into the eastern US and we will get snow. But the bad years are likely to be REALLY bad. To put it simply...bad patterns are now just so warm that its almost impossible to get snow during a hostile pattern anymore, that means years that might have been 8" or 12" from some fluke hits during a year with a hostile base state overall...are more likely to end up like 2020 and 2023 where we get almost no snow at all. Getting a ton of snow in a year with a good longwave configuration won't disprove this theory...we are focused on getting a test case for "can it snow a LOT in a good year anymore" and I too am interested in that...but since a lot of our seasons are not going to be those good years...I would like to see evidence we can fight our way to a respectable snowfall in a more hostile pattern by hitting on marginal temp events and flawed setup storms...unfortunately I fear that is a lost cause.

It has been chilly...DC just had like 6 straight day's below avg temps...its just too late for it to matter wrt snow.

careful, apparently pointing this ridiculously obvious fact out is controversial and political

Is it possible the location is just off...and that is the closest town of note to the actual report?

20 was enso neutral. 09 and 12 were la nina's. Your area really got hosed in both. 09 had some cold periods in January and late feb early march...but your area missed all the snows. There were a couple of minor events in Jan that skipped over your area and the big coastal that gave the DC area 6-12" totally missed you. I got about 6" here from that and I was on the NW fringe of the snow. 2012 also probably hosed you because almost all my snow came from a couple of clipper type storms that probably jumped over you...often those don't do much in the shenandoah valley if they are on a NW to SE trajectory because of the downslope. And there was a big snowstorm in late October I got 8" from here that missed your area.

It’s got no room to amplify

Just to clarify I never said Nina’s are ok compared to ninos. I said they have been better than neutrals over the last 30 years and that’s true based on the data. I also said Ninas are rarely total dreg years like this. And that’s also true. While Nina’s are often frustrating because often that are chilly but their NS dominance means the big snows are often just put it our reach…they are rarely like this year. 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023. Only 2012 and 2023 were total wall to wall crap out of that large sample size. And for me none were close, I got about 20” in 2012. My point wasnt Nina’s are good…but they are better than neutrals and not usually awful like this. Ninos are by far the best

This is one of the best snowfall avg maps I've ever seen produced. If you look close you can see the snow max in northern MD that is my area. It's a little dated now...I think about 15 years old...but they used satellite data and computer simulations along with records to create a more detailed geographically accurate map than almost any others I've seen. The site that produced it and the key is long gone but I have the maps saved. You can still find them floating around random sites online too. Shame, they used to have a bunch of maps like first and last snow, days of snowcover, 10" snows...but most of them are gone. I had them all saved years ago but lost them.