psuhoffman

I had to get the kids new shoes and took them to dinner after. A family sat down at the table next to us and 2 of them were wearing cowboys jackets and hats. My 4 year old, Nora, immediately starting singing "fly eagles fly". I can die now. My work is done.

IMO this is what to look for if we want improvements here... Look back at that GFS run a couple days ago that was a legit snow across our area without needing some miraculous 10 degree dynamic cooling (dont get me wrong it still took a lot going right but this was a better setup). This result.... was because of this setup Look where the upper low is cutting off there, as it crosses the central Apps and the surface low is developing to its east which limits the SE flow here. Also its more connected to the northern stream there so it does have some ability to tap cold air, what little there is. Calling it cold might be a crime but "cooler" at least. But look at the latest 12z GFS same time That's just not going to work. The upper low is cutting off way too far south, putting the surface development way to our south also which places us under a long duration of southeast flow obliterating what marginal cool air we have to work with. Plus it means the system is completely cut off from the northern stream which allows the very marginal to start with "cool" mix of maritime pacific and modified CP air to get stale and degrade from "maybe slightly workable" to "Nope". What we need is for the h5 to trend back to the north and cut off over the TN valley not down in the deep south. I don't know if there is enough time for that to be a realistic ask but its what we need and should look for on future runs. If we don't get that the only chance we have is to get some kind of ridiculous crazy once in a generation type event where we get death banded so extreme that it can dynamically cool the thermal profile by like 10 degrees. That is incredibly unlikely. It's not impossible. And places with some elevation have a better chance of that type thing working out. But by far the better way for us to get snow would be for those adjustments in the H5 I listed above.

You’re not wrong if we had anything close to a typical winter thermal profile. Even a “warm” one by normal standards. That run does dynamically cool the column by like 5-7 degrees but it’s just not enough because it’s so ridiculously warm. Think if it like if we got a storm in early November or April. Because that’s what this thermal regime is more analogous to. It could go perfect and still not be enough because it’s just too warm.

Problem is where is it pulling the cold from??? there is no cold to tap to our north within 500 miles. The only cold is the pocket of dynamically cooled air. The slight imperfection that doomed the euro control was the slow movement and early close off of the upper low allowing us to be under easterly flow for too long. Plus by the time the system gets here it’s vertically stacked and not amplifying which is worse for dynamic cooling. Also there is a limit. We’re not asking to cool a marginal column with a wet bulb of 36 degrees. On that run the boundary is torched. It’s too much to overcome no matter how heavy the precip is.

As I admitted it wasn't an intense a storm as this but it would have been a 4-8" snowstorm if we had anything resembling a normal winter airmass, even a warm one by "normal" winter standards. This would be the most extreme example, but this is also the warmest airmass also, with +15 anomalies heading in and just a small pocket of dynamically cooled mix of modified PC and maritime air behind the incoming trough to work with. Yes if we get an absolute bomb with a dead perfect h5 pass, and get a meso scale band dropping summer thunderstorm type rates, we could dynamically cool and get snow. That is within the scope of possible outcomes here. But much more likely is that any one of several variables doesn't go absolutely perfectly. The h5 low track isnt perfect. We don't get an intense enough meso band. The low moves too slow and torches the thermals before it gets here. Surface cuts inland too much. There are way way way more fail scenarios than win.

I deserved to be moderated and have my posts deleted, I was having a pissing contest with an assclown in the main thread. It was stupid. She is right I should have just ignored him and let the mods delete his nonsense. She always deletes both sides of the discussion when its inappropriate.

Sorry he got me heated. It was bad enough when he went at Randy but I really didn't like him picking on Chuck, especially when he was misinterpreting what he meant, yea I know that's kinda easy to do, but maybe thats why someone shouldnt just jump in here and start throwing haymakers at every one of the regulars. I know Chuck is "odd" but I consider him one of us and in that case he was actually right and that clown was trying to make him out to be stupid. I know he talks in code but he is actually very insightful if you can interpret the code. But if you are going to be deleting his attacks I'll refrain from engaging with him the future.

Even if I don't say it, its still going to be true. The problem isn't the people pointing out the reality, its the fact its a reality. But it's happened several times over the last few years. Most recently a couple weeks ago we had an absolutely perfect track storm that was just rain along 95. I think no one noticed because from range it was supposed to be a cutter and it had no hope of snow anyways due to temps so people stopped paying attention but over the last 72 hours it trended east and ended up an absolutely perfect track coastal low but it did no good. We had a couple of those in January and Feb 2021 also. So why are you so sure it can't happen here? I will acknowledge this is the most extreme example of all these recent events I am citing...but its also the warmest status quo airmass also so while I acknowledge there is a chance (please dont interpret this to mean I am saying there is a 0% chance of snow) I definitely do buy the possibility, if not even the likelihood, we get a perfect track driving rainstorm.

Sorry I wasn’t clear. A h5 track that far south can’t work Imo. It has to not dig as deep and track more west to east just under us. Ideally closing off as it gets to the Apps just to our southwest and swinging through VA and off MD. That’s really the only way I see this working. By tracking that far south initially it puts us in a 12-24 hour period of easterly flow that obliterates an already awful airmass. That won’t work. Unless we get an adjustment back north of the h5 this is doomed.

I left my freezer open all night Damnit

It's my fault I farted.

I don't know that the track matters much... the surface low takes an inside track but the storm is vertically stacked by then so we are still in the CCB there just isnt any cold, there is no snow really outside of elevation. It would help if the h5 didnt close off so soon so far south...the easterly wind ahead of it just wrecks the thermals even worse then they already are. But we're really being silly here...if this was anything close to a typical winter airmass, even a "warm" one by normal standards, that would have been a huge snowstorm on the ICON/GFS/GGEM. We need so much to go absolutely perfectly here to overcome the thermal situation...its just not realistic to expect it. Sure if we get super lucky and the thing bombs out perfectly and death bands us enough to snow great but man thats such a super rare anomalous thing to have to root for as our only hope.

Sorry guys... Needless to say I won't be staying up to calculate our snow probabilities tonight. But based on the thermals on all the ops I would put them somewhere between "snowball in Miami in July and Dante's 9th level of Hell"

the fact that solution is even possible is depressing

This is the most depressing thing I've ever seen

Time for @stormtracker to get aggravated by the speed of the 0z NAM

Seems an even mix of rain and some misses south.

No I just think there is too much molecular friction in the air.

Only snow storm misses us to the south is very on script for this winter lol

It would have been a hecs run if we had a typical airmass lol. The end track was fine but the h5 digs too much and cuts off too far south initially. That’s a problem when we’re already too warm. Works out ok but required crazy banding. An easier path would be less dig initially in the h5 low.

Everyone open your freezer doors… How much dry ice is it possible to have delivered in 4 days???

I would much rather need a minor north adjustment than south in a cut off h5. I actually feel ok about that variable. If I had to bet money on what is the most likely fail scenario it would be the system just isn’t amplified enough to induce the dynamic cooling we need.

The 18z Gfs was half way to a huge solution. Get that amplitude but adjust the h5 about 100 miles north and we get a paste bomb.

Normally of course not. But normally this isn’t what an antecedent airmass looks like on Feb 11th. My point was the actual airmass we have to work with right now is more typical of March 25th than Feb 11.