psuhoffman

Hope you're right Chuck.

But if it get's displaced too far east it simply floods N Amer with pac puke

The biggest problem is...with as bad as things have been lately, and the hope the nino has given, if this ends up being a dud its going to get really really really ugly in here.

We're playing with fire IMO. Both in a good and bad way. If we can get a basin wide that is better than east based. It's a sliding scale of course and other factors will come into play...but the results of basin wide events are on the whole better than purely east based. Typically basin wide events have had variance with some very warm periods but also some periods favorable for snow. I think DC underperformed a bit in 2016. There were several other opportunities for a big snow in January, February and March that winter but only the one worked out. It was THE ONE...but still it could have had more than one hit with some luck. But the warm periods were also crazy torches. However, if we get a strong central based nino I do worry given the current extremely warm background base state... if the warmth just overwhelms everything.

The nino is a little more east based looking than I would prefer right now...

He will get tired of it when people stop paying for it.

The best was that year he used the snowfall at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA.

His verification might be much lower but I bet his bank account is much higher!

If it snows a lot I get to enjoy the winter. If it’s another torch snowless winter the “it’s not actually snowing less, your eyes don’t work and you can’t math” crew have to shut up. Win either way.

My house is mostly ok. Some minor roof damage. Pool is wrecked though. Wind threw a glass table from the patch into it and the glass ended up shattered in the pool. Lost some big trees. I’m going to have to take down what’s left of the big tree next to the house in the back. It’s too damaged. That was our shade. But all in all lucky. There are some houses in much worse shape that I saw.

I was stuck on 30 near Cape Horn as it passed. It was bad. Trees came down around me. I pulled into the little lot by the pond next to the middle school. It lifted up the Portable restroom that’s there and threw it. A tree came down next to my car. Luckily nothing hit my car. Town is a mess right now. Just got the kids. Couldn’t tell if it was straight line or tornado. Happened too fast and was raining too hard. But I heard police confirmed a tornado on the ground near the PA line after it passed us. ETA: sky had that eerie green look right before all hell broke lose

I keep seeing him commenting that CO2 cannot warm the oceans because it can’t penetrate… whatever.

Does JB really not understand how endothermic processes work?

We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see.

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice.

I’m sure Chuck would be glad to explain it to you.

He is a clown. Don’t over think it.

Is there a rule that there always has to be at least one resident clown occupying our long range discussions?

Are you sure about those exact calculations? Maybe you should show your work. I’m gonna need verification on this data.

In fairness I said you would be right 80%. This winter might be one of the 20%. I’d probably go above normal snow right now if I had to predict…which I don’t.

Just predict “warmer than normal with below normal snow” and you will be right 80% of the time.

Careful someone will be along soon to say how this is an exaggeration Have to thread that needle don't we... Right on schedule...do we really have to do this again? Your arguments don't even have internal logical consistency...

The warm and cold anomalies are all in the right places...and I am cautiously optimistic...but the whole background state is much warmer and we just don't know what impact that might have...but unfortunately it likely won't be good. ETA: When I say it likely won't be good I mean compared to what happened in 2009/10. It's very likely to still be better than the utter crap we've been used to lately.