psuhoffman

It’s just a flesh wound.

January and February did

I Commend your optimism but given how hopeful you’ve been several times this year I’d hate to know how absolutely screwed we must be when you say the long range looks bad.

I don’t think we can have the luxury of being picky about how we get our snow.

So we race the clock. Similar to 2018. I’ve been hopeful of a late season window of opportunity but the base state has been so warm I do wonder.

But what does 10 days after that look like?

They lost because they gifted KC 7 points in the first half then couldn't adjust to what KC was doing on offense in the second. I think both teams pass rush was neutralized by the bad traction of the field. It's hard to get off the ball and get leverage to push past the offensive line when the traction is bad. I also think KC did a brilliant job taking advantage of that in the second half using motion and misdirection to get philly players moving the wrong direction then hitting them on cut backs. It worked time and again and they never adjusted. Both teams had to play on the same field so that's part of the game and KC did a better job playing to the conditions. Gannon should have adjusted the D to a zone assignment press man. Stop shifting all over to try to match the KC motion. KC was using it to move the defense until they got the look they wanted. So stop. Play a zone assignment then man up press against whoever ends up in your zone. You can't play a passive zone scheme when you can't break on the ball as quick as usual and your d line isn't getting pressure. That will just allow them to eat you alive 10 yards at a time and thats what happened. This problem also goes deeper than just last night. I know this will sound harsh but I would let Gannon go. His defense is amazing against mediocre QB's but struggles really horribly against good ones. Last night was not an anomaly. Over his 2 seasons they have given up some of the worse numbers to good QB's. It's just they eat offenses alive that don't have an elite QB. But I care more about being able to be competitive against a good team than putting up crazy numbers v bad ones. He is too passive, prioritizes not giving up big plays over actually making plays and he will never ever have the amount of talent on defense he had to work with this season. The eagles were able to load up a ridiculous amount of talent on D this year because Hurts was playing on a 1 million a year contract. Half the D will be gone. The offense will be mostly intact for years but on D they will have to work with way less talent going forward so if he can't stop top QB with the talent he had this year (was torched the last 2 years by every top 10 QB he faced) his system is never going to work.

We’re always 10 days away from being 10 days away.

The NAO has always had more impact the later in a season we go. March 2018 had the greatest affect of all the recent -NAOs. But at some point I’d like to see that a -NAO can overcome the pac in Dec-early Feb. Im pretty sure they can still work in March when shorter wavelengths mute the pac affects to begin with. But ultimately we need blocking to work Dec to Feb also if we want anything resembling what we think of as normal snow climo.

I’m still holding out hope but in the last 48 hours the mjo wave has shown signs of dying short of cold phases again. As that’s happened the hints at longer term changes up top have faded also. The SSW might still kick in but it seems the late Feb start if favorable shifts was more mjo than SSW related. If we don’t get changes up top I doubt we get anything. I know some keep trying to find ways to work around but during the last hostile PDO phase we rarely snowed without blocking help. @jayyy keep in mind in the other similar years to this where it was this warm and very low snow (never this low but lowest before this year) all the snow fell by now. The little bit of snow we lucked into was during peak cold climo. What I’m trying to say is we need a pattern change. As it now starts to warm this pattern isn’t going to work if it didn’t work during our coldest window and that pertains to us up here also. @CAPE I am also interested in what happens if we get a prolonged favorable enso state. Something I think worth noting to watch for. As I was looking at the h5 anomalies from those snows in the last hostile pdo period from 1945-1980 and the more recent -NAO fails something stuck out to me. If you adjust for the warmer base state the patters were the same. Even in the 60s for example, we often had higher heights over the east than the west coast. The mean trough was out west but with blocking systems cut across but there was still a hint of a SER. But the mid latitude base state was so cold it didn’t matter. The baroclinic boundary was south of us. Is the issue now that if you adjust that same pattern for the warmer base state it doesn’t work as well anymore. Think of 2021. It was very close. My 1000 ft and slight latitude advantage was enough. DC was very close to a big big winter. The pattern tried it just couldn’t quite overcome the warmer base state. We don’t have enough data yet. But if we get a modoki Nino and it continues to be hard to get cold enough we might have our answer. My guess is it’s in between. That it will snow more. But maybe not as much more as we need to get out avg back to what it was. What I mean is for Baltimore to maintain a 20” avg we don’t just need a modoki Nino year to give Baltimore 20-30” those have to be the 40”+ years or else the avg will tank considering we’re averaging like 10” in all other seasons now.

That’s all logical but keep in mind this is already historically unprecedentedly shitty. My records go back 17 years but the Manchester coop records I found between 2 reliable stations go back 40 years. There is nothing close to this. The least snow ever by this date before this year is ~12”. So it’s impossible to apply historical expectations to this since this winter has by far far far worse than anything we’ve ever experienced.

Eduggs is just happy we devoted 8 pages to discussing how much rain we may or may not get

His forecast for the moon was perfect!

I said I had some optimism for late Feb and March. That's relative to the no hope despair I've felt for the whole winter up until now...so don't get carried away and say I think snowmageddon is coming...but I could see us maybe having some legit threats for snow the last week of Feb and through March.

I understand the frustration but the perception the models over predict snow to that extreme is a perception bias fallacy. Back in 2018 and 2019 I ran the numbers to see and while they do tend to over predict snow somewhat its not as much as we think. First of all there is the issue of a mean being bound by 0. So lets say you take the 4 GFS runs from a day. If one has a 10" snowstorm but the other 3 show nothing. An average would say the GFS predicted 2.5" of snow but the reality is the GFS was saying there was a 75% chance no snow would fall. Probabilities have to be factored into the equation since a mean is skewed by outliers, especially because 0 bounds the lower end of the calculation. The other factor is the perception the models show snow even when only 1 or 2 runs in a day out of like a minimum of 10 major global runs...more if you include more obscure guidance. If one GFS and one Euro run over a course of 24 hours shows snow...that is not the guidance predicting snow. The preponderance of evidence for that day was no snow would fall. When I tracked both the mean and the probabilities those winters once a week I found the mean was slightly inflated but not as much as we thought...but the probabilities were pretty good. Usually when the probabilities of snow were above 50% it actually did snow. The problem was those probabilities were rarely above 50% even when we percieved they were. Take this year for example...the probabilities for 3" of snow were never above about 30% at any time. And the probabilities of 1" never got above about 50% at any time lol. And the one time the 1" probabilities got to 50% is when we actually did get that little snow event where places got almost 1" lol. If you were just joking sorry...but some really do think the guidance is skewed towards snow but I found numerically its not as bad as we think.

Make preparations now. Only 15 days to get ready. Make sure you buy enough eggs to feed the entire metro area with quiche, a minimum of 10 loaves of bread because why not, and all the toilet paper just in case it never melts and after all the leftover quiche...

Did he start getting all religious and philosophical Iike he does when he is wrong

Lol Nothing can stop the SER

Wonder if it’s his son? I went there in the 80s and early 90s.

Sal’s in Washington TWSP NJ was pretty good.

We’re in similar boats here so something to consider…even the good runs like that euro that shows 4-6” up here is likely way overdone. Surface is 34-35 at the coldest and I’m not sure how 4” of snow is gonna accumulate from 1.5” rain and a surface well above freezing. That strikes me as the kind of thing where a quick slushy coating could at times start to accumulate during heavy burts before being wiped out by rain. And that’s on the better runs for us up here lol. Ya I know I’m a deb.

I’ve been wearing my fall jacket all winter. That part has been ok I guess.

Damn everyone hitting the sauce. I just hit here have to catch up.

This winter died a long time ago. We just refuse to bury the body.

I’m technically tired of this, someone change the channel please.