psuhoffman

Why the fuck not, lets do this. This shit has to end sometime. You still got the bus?

To be clear I am not sure of this...its just a fear of mine.

March 2018 was just before the latest PDO flip. Most of Winter 2018 the PDO was still positive, it was neutral in March. The pac was slightly negative but not crap like its likely to be much of the time the next 30 years now that we are clearly in a -PDO cycle. Yes we will get some fluke lucky years where the PDO is positive even during this -PDO cycle. But that will be very rare. Probably only 1-2 times a decade. And some of those will still be ruined by other factors, like if one times up with a la nina or a positive AO for example. 2018 was a positive PDO for example and not a great winter because it coincided with a +AO and a Nina. SO...if 80% of the time we are going to have an extremely hostile pacific over the next 30 years...and some of the other 20% will get ruined by not timing the pac up with other factors...we are in trouble if a -NAO cannot offset an extremely hostile pac anymore because that is how we got the majority of our snow during the last -PDO. We snowed with a downright god awful pac all the time during that era, because we had to, the pac was putrid most of the time.

@Ji you asked about the PDO... unfortunately we are only about 5 years into this current -PDO. The last -PDO lasted for 35 years. This is something I've hinted at a couple times, but its depressing... but what if the "snowy" period we've been waiting for here actually was the 2000 to 2020 period and it simply wasn't that snowy here because the climate was already degrading we just didn't notice as much because of the +PDO we were in. But places not too far north of us were getting absolutely blasted with snow during that period while we were only about average. What if that really was the very snowy cycle we were due for and we simply didn't take advantage of it because things were already getting warmer. And now we are in another "down cycle" and its god awful instead of just bad. ETA: this does not have to be a AGW debate btw. Whether it's warmer because of a normal cycle that has nothing to do with AGW or not is irrelevant. We can discuss changes in our snow climo without having to debate AGW.

I agree with the SST's being a big part of the problem but I think its more general than a specific 50/50 issue. We have had about 5 blocks since the last time one really worked, and that was even marginal, March 2018. In some of them the fail was that there was no 50/50 and a WAR. But there have been several where we did have a 50/50 and the SER linked up with the -NAO to the west of the 50/50 anyways. Basically the SER bullied the 50/50, forcing it east slightly, then linked up behind it. The problem is simple...the warmth is winning in the equation. The suppressive effects of the NAO are still there... if you look you can see it...but its not winning ENOUGH to get the boundary south of us as much of the time. We are still struggling even during blocking lately. As for why... we should discuss that over in the other thread probably.

But if we are in another long term -PDO, and if like the last one the pacific is going to be in this base state for almost all of the next 30 years...what exactly do we need to snow now then? Because a -NAO is how we overcame that pacific last time we had a long term -PDO. We didn't get snow in that era because the pacific was helpful...we got snow in spite of a hostile pac almost all the time. But the problem I see now is, since this current PDO flip...the things that worked last time are not working the same way now.

The fact only 1 of those dates is this century and only 2 in the last 45 years kind of highlights one of 2 possible things...either in the most recent +PDO phase March snow was less likely....(lets hope its that) and now that we are in a -PDO we will resume March snow being a staple....OR...its that thing we aren't supposed to talk about.

Hope not...pretty soon that will be a good thing

@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently. The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March. There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle. And several more times got close with 7-9" March months. There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly. Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now. Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle. If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it. We used to be able to. March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region. Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March. March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.

But why assume that would work anyways. We got the same pattern for our coldest snowiest climo period just 2 years ago and it was mostly a fail anyways. The cities got one fairly minor mixed event and a few perfect track rainstorms. Yes that definitely helped. But there are some other examples of snowy periods during that period without any Pacific help. This is the h5 from 6 snowy winters during the last -pdo. note the Aleutian ridge on the means. That was just a feature we had to overcome during the last -pdo. It’s going to be there most of the time the next 30 years if the last -pdo was any indication. If the only time we get above avg snow in the next 3 decades is on the extremely rare times we get a moderate modoki Nino we’re in for a rough ride! Others are way more qualified to speculate on this. I would listen to @WxWatcher007

I took several days off and I see we’re still relying on day 11 control runs. Yup.

I get that, I see it too, the problem is during the last -pdo cycle we rarely ever had a favorable pacific. What we’ve seen the last 8 years was simply the base state almost all the time for 3 decades!

During the last -PDO from 1945-1980 the pna was negative about 80% of the time. So long as we remain in a -pdo cycle, and the last one was 35 years, this is just how it’s going to be most of the time. I’ve seen no evidence the last 8 years that blocking can offset a -pdo anymore. At least not on a grand level. Could we luck into one snowstorm like March 2018, sure. But even during extreme blocking most storms go well to our north lately. Look what that period looks like now… But isn’t this just a 2023 version of a similar pattern at the same time of year in 1962 Look at where the core of the anomalies are. Isn’t this just that pattern adjusted for the warmer base state? Even during many of the very snowy periods during our last -pdo the trough was out west and the ridge was in the east in the means. It was just so cold it didn’t matter. But what happens if we adjust that same exact longwave pattern for todays base state temps and the ridge wins now? Would that 1962 pattern even lead to that huge early March mid Atlantic snowstorm or would it be further north now? And I am not saying it won’t snow at all coming up. I think we could luck into something similar to 2018. But even if we do, so what? One snowstorm doesn’t change this larger issue. This is why. If we are in another -pdo era, which I think we are since we were long due for a pdo flip, and the pna is going to be negative almost all the time for the next 30 years…we know +NAO periods are going to be awful. So we need the -NAO periods to be blockbusters with a lot of snow, not also these struggles where maybe we get lucky one time. No one is saying it won’t ever snow. It’s snowed over the last 8 years some. But if bad years are this bad…and even the “good years” are now a struggle it’s not good @CAPE is right that we need to see what happens when we get a favorable enso. But don’t assume that means the PNA issue goes away. During the last -pdo even during some ninos the pna was negative a large portion of the time. Look at an extremely snowy Nino month Jan 1966 for example. The pna was still negative we just overcame it. I’m curious myself to see how much of this a Nino can offset.

I’ve said all winter our best chance was likely March. The shorter wavelengths make it easier to offset the pacific pattern which just won’t quit. So I’m not gonna completely dismiss this. Im just not going into its happening mode until I see it inside day 7 and no SER on the means. We’re moving the right direction I’m just being reserved for now. But if we’re really lucky maybe we get another super late season block like March 2001 or 2013.

I have a better base state.

But what part?

That would be one way to mitigate an Aleutian ridge. Lol ETA: you can see how the shorter wavelengths help there.

Discussions about the current base state can be frustrating. Especially since the pacific base state is about the worst base state you could imagine a base state to be. Almost any base state would be better than this base state. Base state discussion can also be redundant since the current base state has been the base state since 2016. But it’s hard to ignore the base state when the base state overlays what happens within the base state. I think we’ll just have to cope with hearing about the base state and debate about how the base state effects synoptic details within said base state and speculation when the base state might change to a better base state. Enjoy your base state.

Ya I don’t know. Like you I’m very curious what happens with a better enso base state. I can see logical arguments for it going either way. During the last -pdo Nina’s were pretty bad. We did have an awful stretch in the 50s which if you only adjust it slightly could have been that eras version of this. On the other hand we did have one Nino which everyone makes excuses “it never coupled” except during the last -pdo many ninos didn’t have exactly the same pac influence but we managed to snow anyways. And we did snow “more” in 2019 just not enough to offset the dreg surrounding it. Also we had a few snowy neutral winters during the last -pdo and so far both neutrals firing this -pdo have been god awful! There are valid arguments for each side here. And it will snow some either way. No one is saying that’s it snow is over. It’s snowed the last 8 years. Just not nearly as much as we are used too. The question isn’t “will it snow in a more favorable base state”. It’s will it snow enough. When we do get a favorable enso we need that to be a 40” winter not something like 2019 again.

That looks familiar. Pretty much how our last 5 -NAOs went. But isn’t that just the 2023 version of this… That’s the h5 from some of our snowiest winters during the last -pdo cycle. But look at where the anomalies are centered…Aleutian high, lowest heights over western Canada and under the block in the Atlantic. The mean ridge position is over the east it’s just extremely muted. But what happens if you simply adjust that look there to todays warmer base state??? Doesn’t it end up exactly what that h5 you posted is?

I dunno man, I see 6 members there that have a -NAO linked to an eastern US ridge. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Some of the members that “look good” with a trough in the east had a linked NAO SER prior so the storm was just rain because there was warmth in front of it. So add in those 3 members then add in the handful that don’t develop blocking and it’s a majority that have a SER still.

all 3 ensembles indicate New England (away from the coast) will get quite a bit of snow soon. I drive there to ski all the time.

You’re right…they’re all part of the same feedback loop, but an Aleutian ridge alone can be mitigated. We’ve snowed with one before. Recently even. But when I see all 3 on a mean imo it means those features are still dominant and locked in and likely to trend stronger. All those other factors working to suppress the SER, one will likely not be as robust and the result is the whole boundary shifts north again. If I see a pattern with an Aleutian ridge but the SER is actually totally gone on the means and the trough axis is in the east then I might entertain that perhaps we’ve got a chance to mitigate the pac pattern. Again you’re ultimately right but I wanted to clarify that seeing all 3 on the mean to me indicates the pac ridge is still driving the bus.

I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER. Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease.

Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look.