psuhoffman

I think it’s just a bad op run. But see my discussion with Cape regarding what might be at play if that really is correct.

But troughs will always enter the west. Look at our loading pattern 3-5 days before a snow. Often there is a trough out west. Rarely go we snow from a wave diving SE from Canada. A handful of times I’ve been in UT or CO and skiid in snow then flew home in time to get snowed on again from the same wave. problem is waves have to progress east not amplify and track NE. In this longwave configuration it makes sense we have trouble. look at the wave spacing in the pac. It supports an eastern ridge. But look at day 10. as the impact of the mjo forces pac waves that have died west of the Aleutians to progress instead of kicking that wave out of the NW instead it’s logjammed the pac into a mess. The pac doesn’t support a trough amplifying in the west and pumping an eastern ridge. The pac is being convoluted into an ungodly mess because fir whatever reason the trough won’t kick out. It’s as if there was a boulder dumped into the River over the CONUS forcing the flow to buckle around it backing up everything behind it! Now you are right that about 75% of the time the last 7 years the pac longwave pattern has been bad. My point is that doesn’t 100% account for our futility. We’ve seen -pdo periods like this before and we did much better wrt snow. But the real kicker to me is that the 25% of the time the pac forcing does take on a more favorable configuration systems still are amplifying in the west and cutting. I really do think there is more than the pac feeding the eastern conus ridge and it’s resisting even when the pac is neutral to decent. It’s only when the pac is like 100% perfect that it seems to be able to bully the SER out of existence.

Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was. 12z gefs and geps didn’t. 0z eps wasn’t. If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!!

Agree. As the period comes into better focus it seems guidance indicates 2 waves in that period. The first seems to favor another miller b with a NS wave diving SE into the trough. The next favors a pac wave ejecting out of the southwest but this time into a flow unlikely to cut.

Quick illustration why that wave around the 17-18th is different. that western trough isn’t the same. It’s a system ejecting off the pac (y) but it can’t amplify out west. Look at the pacific Z, it’s actually trying to pump a ridge in the west. That trough is just temporary as a system cuts across. Between the flow behind X and ahead of Z, Y has to kick out and track east not north and there is cold in front of it. Yes I know it’s March 17 my turn just pointing out why that is the best synoptic setup for us to get a flush hit.

Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum.

What did it show 12 hours ago?

Other guidance is 48 hours slower with wave 2 so Gfs likely doesn’t even have the generals correct so not worried about a weird specific issue like that NS retrograding low.

Wave 2 is a good setup. What limits it this run is a weird thing I doubt is correct from this range. that upper low over Michigan instead of sliding east (good) or phasing in (great) retrogrades NW to north of Minn…see which opens the door to ridging along the east coast. That’s a very weird progression. It’s too much of a good thing, blocking retrograding the whole pattern too much lol. Wouldn’t worry about it.

For reference this is what we want the thermals to look like as a wave approaches. Lol

@stormtracker flow already starting to back at 168. I think wave 2 has a shot on this run.

It’s possible wave 2 gets suppressed and the one behind…but yea I know we’re running out of time. The flow will be pretty suppressive for a while behind this first wave. This pattern is very similar to 2018 but we’re progressing about 5 days behind. That’s a big deal this time of year.

Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018. The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered.

The block is having an effect. @Jimight have been right. Guidance trends bad when long lead chaos shows a good solution in a bad pattern. But the opposite should be true also!

Unless it hits then I’m interested in wave 1 lol.

This…my main focus on wave 1 is how it sets up wave 2

@stormtracker even if it’s not enough to help us with wave 1, we want the less amplified out west leading to a further east amplification scenario. Because the further east wave 1 amplifies the more effective it will be at setting the table for wave 2.

The pattern is still progressing as I expected but about 48-72 hours slower. This isn’t a can kick really it’s just that the initial wave is going to be slower and more amplified. Whether it’s over the upper Midwest or off New England, that more amplified wave 1 slows down the pattern progression. So the next handoff from the pac, wave 2, looks more like the 17-20 v 14-16th. Yes I know that’s a big deal because if the time of year but it is what it is. It’s hard for me to post images where I am but if you look at the gefs and eps on March 16 you can see the next wave ejecting from the west but this time with lower heights in front of it and the SER gone. That’s why that is the better threat. Plain and simple. The first wave ejects with too much warmth left over from the previous pattern in front of it. So we can kiss the primary and any WAA snow scenarios goodbye. That leaves us needing a perfect transfer and secondary solution. How often does that work out here any time of year? Possible yes. Likely no. There are way more win scenarios with wave 2. So far no ens guidance is indicating ridging issues in front of wave 2. The fail would be if we start to see too much separation between wave 1 and 2 and we begin to see a SER start to show between those waves. As soon as that trend starts it’s game over and I’ll begin to write my book. But there is reason to believe with the pac forcing opposite what its been due to a high amp mjo 8/1 this time will be different. If it’s not I have the perfect conclusion to my novel.

That’s pretty much exactly what I would guess too.

We still have hope coming up but I think the wave after the one we’re tracking now will have the better chance.

This year would still bad within the construct of the new normal! I am not saying this year is what every winter will be like. We just had some snow last winter. 2019 wasn’t awful. We had some snow in 2018. Yea 2017/2020/2023 were total non winters. So I am not saying this winter is the new normal. But I am concerned what we’ve seen on the whole of the last 7 might be closer to a new normal. I do think this is a dowb cycle and better days are ahead. But how much better is the question. Do we return to what used to be normal. ~20” in Baltimore. ~15 in DC. I have my doubts.

No the indo pac warm pool is but again that’s not a temporary problem and is also related to…you know.

Ok so we can snow that once every 12 years we get a perfect modoki moderate Nino that couples and coincides with a -AO. Ok. And how’s our snow climo gonna look in that reality if that’s what we need to get a snowy winter?

@Ji but if you’re saying part of the issue is with a warmer pac and expanded Hadley cell (which causes that pac firehose jet btw) it’s simply too much heat directed at us upstream I agree. But that’s not a temporary longwave pattern issue. That’s what I mean. It’s not just the pac longwave configuration. It’s just so warm that almost every configuration is a fail except that incredibly rare epo pna full lat ridge combo.

The SER pumps ahead of every wave lately regardless of the pacific longwave pattern. The only time we’ve been able to suppress the SER is the rare times we’ve had an absolutely PERFECT pac longwave configuration such that we get a full latitude epo pna ridge and direct cross polar arctic air.