psuhoffman

But you know better?

I need @stormtrackerpermission to fully express my opinion of that prog.

Is this a joke?

If a -nao doesn’t work then we’re essentially F’d during any -pdo cycle (which can last 20+ years) because the only way we overcame a hostile pac base state in past -pdos was blocking except for random one off fluke luck with progressive waves. But that’s not a path to a snowy winter just a once in a while fluke reprieve.

If we had a positive AO or a Nina I’d share your worry. He means a week later that pac ridge would be trouble. But in a Nino with -AO and split flow it’s not the same. We discussed this yesterday. And the ridge is temporary. In a strong Nino no way we get a prolonged Nina pacific long wave pattern. It’s a response to the mjo in the MC. It will come off before it significantly alters the equation. If I’m wrong and we get a prolonged pac ridge -pna eastern torch I will officially cancel winter forever and find a new hobby.

I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. I think it’s very possible we get snow before late Jan. I was just saying the best window for a hecs level storm would be after the PAC pattern recycles. There are plenty of paths to get snow before that.

This is my current thought process on how this might play out As the MJO progresses through 8/1 and the jet starts to retract will will get a favorable EPO/PNA longwave pattern around New Years. This will begin the process of ushering in a more favorable regime for snow. But it's going to take some time to mitigate the thermal issues across all of North America. It's possible we get some snow early in this process but it would take some luck with either the timing between waves, a transient well timed 50/50, or a progressive wave with a favorable track. Overly amplified waves would still favor rain during this phase. After that it is likely we get a short period as the MJO progresses through the MC (phases 3-6) where the typical Nino pacific pattern is destructively interfered with and we get a hybrid nina like longwave configuration for a time. This might lead to a bit too much -PNA for a time in January. It shouldn't be a torch or a no hope pattern, we could even snow with some luck and a progressive wave during this period, but it would still not be that "it" look Ji wants for our HECS. But a -PNA ina nino is not the same. THe STJ and split flow will fight against a huge SE ridge this time. But the real lead is that once the MJO gets out of hostile phases again...this time we have a colder regime already established across North America and its go time. By then the effects of the SSW are likely to be kicking in also. If this leads to prolonged NAO blocking in conjunction with when the canonical nino pattern resumes in the pacific it could be ripe for an HECS threat. I am not saying we won't get snow before then...we very well could, but I think the timeline implies our BEST longwave pattern is still likely to be late January into February.

He used one run of one model to say “no evidence of cold”. Come on that’s clown stuff. But we’re hunting snow not cold. Frankly I’m not sure how cold it can actually get anymore. Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016. Warm muted then routs the cold pretty fast recently. But it can get just cold enough to snow still and that’s what I’m hunting. I’ve given up on wall to wall cold. This isn’t even really the right seasonal setup for that.

Another piece to the equation is that during a Nino we typically get a split flow with a calmer NS. Systems crashing into the west are somewhat cut off from the NS so the trough there isn’t as hostile to the downstream flow as the phase full latitude trough you tend to get in a Nina where the dominant NS dives into the west. In a Nino more commonly it’s somewhat cutoff systems that slide east under the NS often with a ridge in the epo-nao domain above the trough.

Euro weeklies agree with my hunch. For about a week we get a central pec ridge coinciding with MC forcing. But by the next week the pac pattern is resuming a more Nino look.

1. Does that roll into an eastern ridge though in a Nino with a weak SPV and amplified STJ? That driver has different downstream impacts based on other factors. So long as the pacific ridge extends over the top onto western Canada the energy that crashes into the west should track east not get stuck and amplify out west. 2. that’s likely temporary as the mjo progresses across the MC. So long as it’s only a week or so with cold established ahead of it we can survive and even snow during the period with luck. It’s very possible we do get a temporary period mid January with a bit too much pna trough but when the pattern reloads and the the mjo leaves the MC watch out with a colder profile already established across N America.

While everyone’s discussing the 300 hour GFS GEPS was a noice run

Substantive response

We want the nino to be stronger... given the fact it is in conflict with the pacific base state which will mute the impact of the nino, frankly my bigger worry as we head into the heart of winter is that the nino doesn't have enough influence and we get too much ridging in the central pacific leading to more -PNA than we want in the mid atlantic. That equation can still work further north of course. To get the longwave impacts of a moderate nino we probably need the raw SST anomalies to be in the strong bordering on super nino territory given the mitigating factors around it. The last thing I am worried about wrt a winter fail is that the nino will be too strong.

Those snow maps have looked that way for about a week now. But cape is right the h5 look is what matters. The snow is a product of the long wave pattern not the other way around. But I don’t mind the snow maps as much. Who cares it’s fun so long as we tone it down once there is real threats to focus on.

I generally agree but it’s a slow news day so whatever. Let them have fun. The pattern change is on target. But there’s not much new regarding that and we’re not within range of a discreet threat yet so at least they aren’t distracting us from anything. If they were I’d be calling for cleanup in aisle 6 also.

A monthly ensemble snow mean is always going to skew towards the mean. That cuts both ways. Let’s throw out DCA. BWI averages 6.4”. When it shows 4-5” that’s really bad. Worse than the raw number. When it shows 8-9” that’s really good. You’re never going to see it skewed that far from the mean for a period further than 15 days out. Once a snowy period gets within shorter range then ya you will see those crazy 20” means but never from the 15-40 day mean.

You need rich ass friends in Steamboat Colorado. Choose wiser.

Last time we had a 30 day period with that favorable a long wave pattern but barely any snow was 2021 the excuse was “but it’s a Nina”. If that happens again in a Nino I accept no excuses. It’s time to burn this place down!

Took a peek at the weekly control for fun. How does this 30 day mean lead to this

Looking at the progression of everything I am increasingly worried I will be missing some "fun" when I have to be out of the area from Feb 2-10th.

I don't think this necessarily hurts us much this year since we're kinda MECS/HECS hunting, that's how Nino's work. If we don't get at least one MECS level storm were very unlikely to have an above avg snowfall year. But a thought I've been having watching it take two waves and a week to recover the thermal profile over eastern North America...and having watched this same thing play out several times in recent years...one of the biggest reasons why we've lost a lot of the 3-6/4-8 type storms of years past is that when its warm its so freaking warm, that it takes weeks for the thermal boundary to recover and set the stage for snow...and often in years where a better pattern is transient we waste the whole window.

Been snowing off an on all morning, had a dusting on the ground from last night. 33 degrees now

The offense has become incredibly predictable. It was never complicated, always relied on simply having better players and letting them win their 1 on 1s. Problem is teams have had 2 years now to take away those advantages, double team, crash the box on those QB draws...it's just not working as well anymore. But I still think wasting 5 plays a game on deep balls is a big part of it also. They might not be as prolific as last year still but they would be a lot better if they focused on taking what defenses are giving them and not wasting 5 plays a game forcing a deep pass into double coverage. I am not very impressed with their offensive coaching. Anyone can design a decent offense with the skill players they have...they seem unable to adapt now that teams have come up with ways to limit them. That's pretty bad considering how good the talent is across the board on offense.

Until they are willing to adapt on offense this will continue. There isn't too much they can do about the defense, they were weak up the middle in the back 7 to begin with then injuries made it worse. But on offense they have refused to adapt to a change defenses have made. Ever since AJ and Devonte went off earlier this season teams are playing a lot of 2 high safety and taking away whichever receiver goes deep and in some cases even double teaming them both! And yet they continue to launch deep balls into that double coverage even when someone is wide open underneath. They ended 3 drives last night doing that. Once on 3rd down when they passed up a wide open Devonte for a first down and threw a bomb to a double covered AJ. And twice late in the game when they threw and INT on a first down bomb for no reason. How much of that is on Hurts and how much is coaching I can't say. Obviously its some of both. But their philosophy needs to change, if they keep attempting deep balls when that is exactly what the defense is trying to take away the results will be the same.