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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    For the love of god everyone put him on ignore
  2. psuhoffman
    I gave up on the idea of a bigger snow when I saw all guidance trend towards the euros idea of keying on the lead SW (or second if you count that weak front runner) but hope we can end on a compromise that leaves us a light event. Avoid Jis 8 to 0 scenario. But we’re living dangerously now with how this is trending.
  3. psuhoffman
    This isn’t an easy storm to make early model run projections because a lot of what goes one early with the lead wave is just noise. It’s how 2 and 3 interact that matters and that happens late.
  4. psuhoffman
    It's almost identical to the 12z GGEM at the same time
  5. psuhoffman
    Time for the ICON to forget to load the only 3 panels we care about
  6. psuhoffman
    yea it is what it is... we all know who the JV players are, but its still better to have them on our side than against. Preponderance of evidence and all that jazz...
  7. psuhoffman
    had a lot of blue!
  8. psuhoffman
    Comparing the NAM at 84 to this mornings 12z Global runs...it is most similar to the GGEM, not quite as amplified but significantly more amplified than the GFS. It was likely about to look good in the next couple frames IMO.
  9. psuhoffman
  10. psuhoffman
    We were talking about snow
  11. psuhoffman
    The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And its actually what the guidance suggests.
  12. psuhoffman
    I don't love the current look, BUT I do like where it's heading. It was all NS before today, which is why we weren't getting any good looks at all. The euro is kind of a hybrid now, it does activate a weak STJ wave and begins to amplify it while its still in the TN valley. I would love to see it become STJ dominant v a hybrid but its already a much better look that a pure NS miller b and its trending towards more STJ interaction today. If we get one more trend the same way as the last 24 hours suddenly we have a big dog look. IMO its already moved towards a progression that is at least unlikely to miss us completely, but the threat that it is only a modest event here and more significant further north is real.
  13. psuhoffman
    Don't sell yourself short. I know I find all your posts helpful.
  14. psuhoffman
    The differences critical to our outcome become pretty evident by about 60 hours, which is becoming pretty close now...so pretty soon we will see guidance begin to converge. We kind of did at 12z, but we still don't know where the compromise will leave us.
  15. psuhoffman
    You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that. A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again. A stronger lead wave interferes. So it's all related.
  16. psuhoffman
    Jan 20th is a perfect example of the importance of pattern recognition over surface output on long range guidance. For whatever reason the guidance never really keyed in on a specific wave for that period and was mostly dry, but pulling back the pattern was screaming for a storm there. And suddenly as we get into the range where waves can be better resolved a storm has popped up on all 3 major global models that go out that far...and I'm pretty sure the UKMET was headed towards a storm also if it went out a couple more days.
  17. psuhoffman
    They seem to be trending towards a compromise on that, but I'm just not sure what that looks like in the end. I am concerned about that also.
  18. psuhoffman
    Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying.
  19. psuhoffman
    Cleveland did
  20. psuhoffman
    We love to make fun of this silly superstition but at the same time particles behave differently when being watched and we can't explain why so...
  21. psuhoffman
    Seriously how would I possible know that either way? LOL
  22. psuhoffman
    Warming caused the TPV to amplify and suppress the storm
  23. psuhoffman
    It's not like we've been getting any snow the last couple years either though...
  24. psuhoffman
    That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95. Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend now
  25. psuhoffman
    I'm not sure this matters though because they are trending NW under a totally different paradigm than the euro sees that starts to veer off around hour 60. The other guidance have a much more amplified 3rd wave and weaker 2nd wave. Under that scenario there is room for the storm to track more NW. But if the euro is correct we never get to that scenario. The 2nd wave takes too much of the energy off, the 3rd wave is flat and positive tilted and there is no chance for the storm to even get going. What happens under one paradigm doesn't necessarily mean anything if that whole paradigm is wrong. If the euro is right about what those waves are going to look like around hour 60 there wont be a storm to track further NW. It will just be a series of weak arse waves off the SE coast until its way too far OTS to do us any good. We just have to hope that the euro is the one messing up the configuration of those waves not all other guidance.
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