psuhoffman

Lake effect is cool to experience but it’s not the same level of tracking imo. And not very good skiing there. I’ll save up and shoot for VT someday.

I’m already planning where I might take the kids for some snow/ski weekends so they can see snow.

If there was interest I’d do it.

That looks pretty awesome. Close to Timberline and backwater falls. Can get a beer at Jon Jons. I’d jump on that if I had the resources which I currently do not.

A modoki Nina is worse. We want an east based Nina. West based are the really bad ones. There could always be a fluke. But a west based Nina in a -pdo cycle with our current thermal base system is a disaster waiting to happen.

That was a neutral

Yea i don’t have the ability to do that research. But I find it interesting that the two -QBO Ninos that stick out like a sore thumb for a +nao winter are both years following a volcanic eruption.

@Ji but the numbers are what they are. I think it’s fair to think there is a chance next winter could go our way and end up just a typical below avg winter. Not a total snowless dreg year. But unless the PDO flips and there is no sign of that yet, I think our high end bar is hope it’s just bad not awful. 1996 ain’t happening in the -pdo regime.

2017 could have gone better too. We had quite a few legit threats. They all went sideways but we had some decent pattern windows that winter.

That’s about right. In colder winters there isn’t much difference between my house and say Ebb Valley EM in the valley. But if we keep having winters where most of our snow even up here comes with temps right at 32-33 degrees then the difference will continue to be greater. 200-300 feet which often equates to 1 degree matters way more when it’s near freezing every storm. Back when it used to snow at like 20 degrees up here not so much. The upslope qpf difference is pretty marginal imo. It’s just ratios in marginal near freezing events.

12/11: 3.8” 1/6: .7” 1/14: .9” 1/15-1/16: 4.5” 1/19: 4.2” 2/13: 6” 2/16-2/17: 4.3” total: 24.4”

I took a look at his blog today, out of morbid curiosity wanted to see how he finally conceded and had either his typical melt down or if he went “I nailed this or that but the pattern never cooperated defiance”. Just for fun. Instead he was holding on to the idea the only reason his snow forecast hadn’t hit us the east hadn’t had the big one but that since everything else has gone to form it’s probably coming. But he was in that stubborn defiant mode he gets into when he knows it’s all going sideways. He likely actually did think this was going to be a big year for him like 2003 and 2010 and he could ride this for another 3 years! He is just trying to get one more month of paid subscribers at this point. He knows how unlikely a hecs is in DC to NYC once into March.

I think you’re talking about the ridge in the central pacific near the Aleutian's right? When people say PNA they are usually talking about the ridge/trough configuration in the Western US. I think you’re talking about the Nina type central pac ridge, which leads to a downstream -pna of course which leads to a SER. But if we can get a -nao in March that isn’t as much an issue. As the wavelengths shorten the nao can force a trough in the east dispute that ridge. March 2018 was the most recent example. Last March the nao did its job, but what killed is was there was no cold at all anywhere and the pacific ridge lifted so poleward the jet cut under and blasted pac puke across. But the nao did suppress the eastern ridge! It saved the ski season in New England! That’s why sometimes we can get snow in March in an otherwise awful Nina year. However, I have my doubts the kind of block we need ever materializes. The guidance has teased it all winter and it’s only briefly come to fruition and both times quickly and inexplicably collapsed. The models aren’t awful. They see the weak SPV, -QBO, and Nino. The logical assumption is -nao. Something is clearly running interference. Maybe the WV from Tonga. Maybe the pacific base state. Dunno. But I’m skeptical.

JB says the hecs is coming

I usually focus on learning how to stop properly pretty fast, depending on the balance of the student. If they can’t stay on their feet more than 10 feet it doesn’t matter much. But as soon as they can glide a bit I start on that. I think spending a lot of time in snow plow is detrimental to progressing. Once you can stop it makes it easy to accelerate learning of technique because you’re more comfortable. It’s very similar to the mechanics of turning. Only you have to commit completely and lean into it. Get all your weight into the inside edge of the downhill ski and dig it in. It’s a feel thing. Once you get it you can feel the friction on the inside of the downhill boot and manipulate it. Put some weight into the edge to control speed. More to stop. Takes several tries at medium speed. Enough to get the feel but slow enough the inevitable falls don’t hurt too much. But it’s worth it because once you acquire that skill it’s applicable to many more as you progress and your comfort level goes way up knowing you can control your speed and stop!

I’ve taught many people how to ski. Liberty is a good mountain to learn and not far. If you ever wanted a free lesson let me know.

I don’t think the 32” the axis has shifted in our lifetime has affected the climate that much.

Speak for yourself. My town has been hit by 2 tornadoes in 5 years and my property sustained major damage twice last summer. No thanks. I’ll take a nice boring summer where I can sit by my pool and not coordinate contractor repairs.

It will snow. But it is still snowing now in places with elevation. Vermont is doing ok. But consider in a warm winter places 200 miles north of us at low elevation didn’t have that much more wiggle room. You adjust things just a bit and they aren’t cold enough in a warmer winter either. And in a tight thermal gradient pattern it’s hard to know what the warming does to the boundary. Wouldn’t take much to adjust the whole boundary hundreds of miles. It won’t matter as much in a colder regime once the PDO flips but I do think warming can explain some of the struggles to our north in warmer -pdo winters.

@Terpeast I just looked. It’s slim pickings. But right now there are 2 places I’d maybe be interested that aren’t crazy crazy $$&. Both around 300k. One is a house NW of Wilmington VT and another a condo unit northeast of Stratton. There is also a “new construction” listing NE of Magic Mountsin in an area that I know gets crushed with snow. But ya yea not cheap and there aren’t a ton of options. There was a run on properties there during the pandemic.

I don’t judge all winters on the same curve. I’d be thrilled with this years results in a Nina. But -QBO ninos have to be held to a higher standard. Baltimore averages 42” in -QBO Nino winters!

Yea I’m in the same boat with the kids. About 1000 ft seems to be the magic number in southern VT. Above that does very well and holds snow. Below and you’ll be disappointed often. There are a few towns high enough to do good like Grafton. But you really want to look for communities outside the river valleys most towns are in. There is a community just east of Magic Mountsin along 121 between Windham and North Windham at about 1500 feet that gets dumped. There is another along rt 9 east of Bennington next to Big Pond. Someplace like that. But you have to wait for a property to come on the market. Or buy a plot and build. But that area is probably perfect for me. Big storms. Not too crazy cold like further north. Very nice summers. Snowmobiling. Skiing. Hiking. Fishing. Not crazy far away.

the area I circled in VT is appealing to me. It’s closer to civilization. Few hour drive to NYC or Boston. It’s far enough south to get into many coastal storms. And there is a plateau with a large area above 1000 ft that holds snow pretty good. Also it’s close enough to Okemo and Killington for skiing. I’m not a huge fan of Stratton or Mt snow, too flat no extreme terrain. The snow further north in VT becomes more clipper and NW flow upslope dependent. Less big storms. They get more snow but it comes 2-4” at a time v getting 8”+ storms. Also farther drive from the cities. If you want snowcover that area in Maine NW of the red line has snowpack from December to April and sometimes well into May. They don’t get as much snow but they don’t get thaws or rain much in winter and are cold as bleep so they hold snow. I’ve been up there in April and may to ski sugarloaf and NW of the ridge that sugarloaf is on has like 2 feet of snowcover still in late April a lot.

Or move up here and commute like I do lol. My elevation helps me some in offsetting the boundary layer warming. It has gotten worse up here but only marginally. For someone used to the DC or Baltimore climo this would seem great still. Even during this last 8 years I’ve only had 2 dead ratters with less than 20”. Or better yet if you want true winters move up to northern New England. My friend has a place in south rental Vermont. He has like 20” on the ground right now. Warming, if you do make sure you factor elevation. The valleys even up there can be frustrating. I’ve been there many times where his place gets 10” and Bennington in the valley gets 2” and is melting already by the end of the day. But yes of you’re going to stay in the mid Atlantic 95 corridor it’s wise to accept reality. However, that doesn’t have to mean worrying about the next storm in a thread about this storm. Or worrying about next winter. What if the PDO flips? I don’t expect it too. It’s probably not going to with a Nina coming. But we can’t say for sure. It’s not worth getting all upset about yet.

lol we go through this every year. Then invariably we go back to tracking things that we know are way way way too far out and thinking at 24 or 48 hours we’re “safe” despite knowing all the rug pulls we’ve suffered over the years inside those leads. Copium is a powerful drug!