psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. This is one from Revelstoke a few years ago. My brother shot it so it’s usually me or my wife in the shots. It’s a whole other world up there. Amazing place.
  2. Everywhere is getting more expensive. One issue is the shrinking disposable income of the working class in America. There just isn’t as much of a market for businesses to cater to that segment anymore. More and more resorts are focused on the wealthy. It’s a shame. Colorado is the worst wrt that. JH was expensive but not out of control. I found some reasonable places to stay and eat. BC (other than Whistler) is still a better value. Some of the powder highway resorts are great bargain deals with low key towns to stay in.
  3. Lol Jackson is only about 6000 feet. Good lord if someone gets elevation sickness from that I can’t imagine if they went to Breck or A Basin. Lol.
  4. Lol with some luck 2018 could have been a good year. Every so often you can get a good Nina but that might have been the year and we just got screwed. Most places around us had above normal snow that year. Frankly in the last 40 years our odds of a big year in anything other than a moderate nino are very low. It used to be a neutral was a pretty good enso state also but lately they mostly end up crap too.
  5. Winters like these happen once a decade where everyone outside the northern mountains get screwed.
  6. Unfavorable pac forcing combined with a strong PV. Years where there was a significant pattern flip from warm to cold during winter 1958,1960,1966,1972,1987,1993,1999,2000,2005,2007,2014,2016,2018. There are plenty of flips from cold to warm also. But by New Years the combo of a strong phase 5/6 mjo wave in conjunction with a strong PV coupling with the tpv hinted that this year was at risk to be a total dud. That combo is the leading cause of our total wasted years. This result isn’t a big surprise.
  7. Thanks. JH makes it hard to to get good shots. Gorgeous scenery. Epic terrain. Very nice authentic town also. Probably my favorite US destination. Revelstoke in BC is awesome too but getting there is a mission.
  8. It was a VERY expensive weekend
  9. Video from my Jackson Hole trip https://gopro.com/v/wEZbW9b3ENrOP
  10. I doubt anyone actually expects it to snow
  11. Read my post above. My comment was about the pattern and nothing to do with what I want, whether that winter was good/bad, or snowfall totals. Snowfall is very fluky and can be a bad way to determine pattern similarities alone.
  12. I didn't say it was a good winter...but the pattern ended up a hybrid between the cold/snowy west based nino analogs and the warmer more east based super ninos. It certainly was warmer and less snowy than the analogs like 58, 03, 10 but it did feature more "chances" at snow in the mid atlantic with cold periods than 1998. All of them other than the one big HECS missed NYC but that details while very important to ground truth doesn't mean a lot wrt to the larger scale pattern. There was a weak wave that missed NYC to the south right before the HECS. There were small accumulations in VA and MD from that. Another wave right after got suppressed and failed to amplify and no one got anything. I got 8" here in MD from a storm on Feb 9-10th that stayed south of NYC. Then there was a 4-8" snowstorm in VA and southern MD that missed to the south of NYC a week later and then an ice storm right after that. Then there were 2 threats in March, one the first week and then one around the 19th that put down some snow to the south of NYC and were threats to be a bigger storm but failed to phase and amplify. There were several periods of cold/snow threats that winter...mid January, another mid February, and then 2 cold snaps in March with threats. In between there were full on torch periods that skewed the mean temps very warm. But that was different from 1998 when there were very few periods where it was cold enough for a snow threat. NYC got screwed over and most of the other threats failed to phase or amplify and stayed south of NYC but there were snow threats. IN the end it was probably way closer to 98 or 83 than 2010 but it did feature more cold periods and snow threats in the mid atlantic than those years.
  13. Any hope of that factor changing left the building a while ago. At this point whatever minimal chances at snow remain hinge on getting a lucky wave track from short wavelength induces chaos.
  14. op GFS develops the best pattern of the year mid March lol. Of course that look wouldnt work without the shorter wavelengths. There are still some hints that there could be chances for cold to be around at times mid month...we will see. Any snow continues to be a long shot imo.
  15. In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between. After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together. There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic.
  16. You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground.
  17. If you really were a meteorologist for 30 years maybe you should have done more “work” and then your posts would suck less.
  18. And to be fair your posts aren’t 99% crap and you don’t go from sub to sub picking fights so you would likely get way more leeway.
  19. Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001? Oh maybe a December 2000 too? I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub.
  20. Why would we care about an April 82 repeat?
  21. It won’t undo the misery of this dreadful winter...and I don’t know what the score changes too, depends on how much and how long the snow lasts I guess...but a snowstorm would make me happy and I would enjoy that day and that’s all that matters to me. The past is done. I can’t change it.
  22. So this is super low odds, in a good year it wouldn't even be worth mentioning it...but the scenario the GFS has shown a few times now centered around day 12 is showing up on some other guidance also. The euro control gets a couple waves through the area around then with a somewhat similar evolution, getting an initial wave up into the 50/50 area and then pinwheeling something into the east behind it. There are several members of the GEFS and EPS that do the same. I suppose its just enough to say its possible and not completely crazy. There seems to be some hints that perhaps there is some opportunity for something around March 7-10th.
  23. What the GFS is doing (more so at 0z but somewhat at 12z also) is a good example of why shorter wavelengths in March can create fluke events. That said...this exact result is still unlikely, and even if we do get a system to track under us I am on the record saying its going to be rain...that is simply the best way to end this season with the most possible damage and pain possible. But this is a perfect illustration of how March can create weird solutions. This looks so familiar...same setup for the whole winter...with the crap pac setting up a trough west ridge east configuration and no blocking up top to help force a system under us. But despite the same look up top and in the pac the shorter wavelengths make it POSSIBLE, not likely but physically possible, for a system to track under us. The first wave slides into a 50/50 position which is still critical, and likely an error because if that first wave ends up anywhere else or at any other time...the whole thing doesn't work. But even if we had that perfect timing in January this would never work. Look at the short spacing between waves which makes this whole thing even physically possible. During mid winter that look in the pac would drive a super ridge into the east and its game over no matter where that first wave goes. The possibility of tight spacing and systems to cut off because of it creates the chaos we need to even have a chance at a fluke in such a hostile pacific base state. It's still unlikely anything works out...it would take a lot of luck with multiple moving parts, but its physically possible.
  24. my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol