psuhoffman

I am on this Maryland Politics Forum and one of the threads was all these guys complaining about how awful women were and the thread author said "who even knows what these b**** C**** want... to which I replied, maybe not to be called that. 3 different guys responded calling me a f**. Did young men decide they never want sex again? WTF happened. And no that forum is not usually this toxic and the thread has now been deleted by the moderator but...jeesh

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes.

The Jaylen Daniels memes are funny right now though. Even in sports the BS bleeds in. If I read the comments under the eagles news you’d think they’re the Cleveland Browns. As someone who’s been a fan for over 40 years I’m like Y’all need some perspective. The last 10 years been to 3 super bowls and playoffs 9/10 times. This is as good as it gets and they talk like the team is garbage.

I liked TTPD but I get why it’s an acquired taste. If you’re not in the mood to be depressed that’s not the album for you.

That’s why I’m still there. Get eagles news before the papers and outlets. Easily follow weather accounts and soccer. The other crap bleeds into my feed.

I’ll admit I’m somewhat biased. Travis’s brothers summer place is a couple blocks from where my parents live. I’ve run into him many times over the years. He seems like a genuinely nice and fun guy. Also charitable. He does this bar event each year to raise money for autism which because of my own personal experience is important to me. I’ve never met his brother, just missed him once actually. But Jason talks about him like he’s a great guy and given the family I doubt he’s a jerk. When he started dating Taylor was before I listened to her at all but my opinion was “good for him, I hope they’re happy”. Silly me I didn’t realize I’m supposed to hate everyone who’s more successful than me. I’ll try harder.

But don’t most of those things apply to all pop stars? I mean yea she is MORE of all those things but to the normal person why does her being worth 2b v some other artist being worth 1.1b or 800m make a difference? The exposure thing is weird too because 90% of that is “our” fault. Most of her exposure is the press reporting on everything she does. Not her own doing. She rarely makes any posts or does interviews anymore. The press posts about her attending a game or at the beach or going to some event and that’s somehow her fault? I do her why people say they have a problem I just don’t understand the logic of it. It seems like it’s “I hate her because she is so successful”. As for the music that’s fine. I thought i didn’t like her. I still don’t like most of her radio hits. I’m not a big pop fan. Then I found out she did two whole albums of folk music which didn’t get much radio play and then found a ton of other songs I likes that are never on the radio. Oddly I like her less popular stuff.

Ok so I’ve become a Taylor Swift fan because of my daughter. Until recently I just never listened. I’m not much of a country fan so her early stuff wasn’t really my thing and never gave it a chance again until recently when I had to listen because my daughter is a swiftie. But I was shocked. I can listen to folklore and evermore all day no skips. All that to say I don’t understand something. The crazy amount of criticism I see and hear whenever she comes up. I am not saying people have to like her music. But when I thought I didn’t I never had a thing to say. If I did it was just “oh she seems like a nice girl just not my type of music”. Another example is I don’t like Drake. I tried. Just not my type of music. But I have never made a single post or comment about it. I don’t waste my time telling people he sucks. I just don’t listen. And I can admit from his sales and chart success that he is an amazing artist regardless of my personal preferences. So what is it about Taylor that creates this lightning rod where everyone who doesn’t like her music feels the need to make these nasty comments? She seems like a nice person. It’s odd to me.

I said it’s possible. It is. But all we have to go on is history. And that suggests the issue is likely to be temps. I don’t buy the models showing these long cold periods. They do that every Nino. The climate models seem to think every Nino is 2010. Dunno why. But they’ve been off several in a row. So I am not buying that. IMO the issue is it’s likely to be too warm to snow the majority in the winter. But we’re also likely to have a juiced up STJ. So the question is do we get enough cold windows to time up 1 of those juiced up 2” qpf waves? So the math becomes is it too warm 95% of the time and then a 1998 becomes likely. Or is it only 75% and then 1983 or 2016 is more likely. Somewhere in there it becomes more likely we do get lucky with at least one wave. And maybe we even get lucky with 2 but that falls in the same boom category just more boom. The bust is it’s too warm 90% of the time and we don’t time anything up and have very little snow. I am not arguing a twist can’t happen just that those are the most likely two scenarios. IMO maybe 40% boom, 40% bust, 20% some weird unforeseen outcome based on new climo. Just my 2 cents. I don’t have a crystal ball.

My social media feed seems to be littered with gender war crap, including people celebrating walking out on their spouse just because they weren't totally happy. It's not men or women, it's both... women proudly posting about how they left just because they felt bored or something "just wasn't right" and men bragging they left because their wife wasn't... well use your imagination here. WTF is going on? Forget the battle of the sexes crap, when did marriage vows become a total joke? I mean... there are legit reasons to leave a marriage. Abuse. And I include emotional abuse not just physical. But I don't ever remember the "until I get bored or you're not putting out enough" clause in the "until death do us part" portion of the wedding! Did I miss some major announcement where marriage vows were just a suggestion and no longer an actual commitment?

It's possible, but the history on super Nino's would imply the last likely outcome is that "in between" scenario. The key is going to be the exact location of two features. The North Pac low and the AO/NAO high/block. These two features showed up in almost all the analogs. But there is a balancing act on how they play off each other. The further east the Pac low is the worse it is for us. The further southwest the NAO/AO high is...for instance if it ends up centered over Quebec instead of truly in the NAO domain...the worse.. about half the super nino's that combo ended up toxic...the PAC low too far east blasting pac puke across the whole continent all winter...and the AO/NAO high too far southwest so that it didn't help block down even domestic cold from canada but instead just "blocked" the pac puke over the lower 48 all winter...and in those winters it was simply mild and wet all winter. The more favorable winters, that combo was more favorable, enough so that we were able to get some windows and cash in on one or two of the STJ waves for a huge snowstorm. There weren't many examples of in between. 2024 maybe but that was a really odd winter where a strong nino never acted like it and I don't expect that to happen again give the combo of how strong this is and the PDO seeming to be coming off the peak of its cycle.

Someone could make $ them making this available for a fee. I’d use it. But then again I’m weird so maybe there isn’t much demand.

Yea that was my thought also. Sometimes an average when there are two distinct sub sets within the analogs is the least likely outcome! I get it that some feel pressured to make a definitive forecast but the truth is a good forecast would be to say “we have an elevated risk of a historic snowstorm this winter, it’s going to be wet, but it might end up too warm and in that case a snowless winter and it’s about 50/50 odds”. If people aren’t smart enough to digest some nuance and ambiguity oh well. Fake certainty does no one any good.

JB’s top 6 analogs show what we’re facing. 3 has an HECS storm. The other 3 were snowless winters.

Ugh. How is this not getting more backlash? Seems to be a pretty big deal to me.

@WxUSAF @CAPE @das@MillvilleWx @Terpeast Not sure why this isn’t getting more attention or maybe it is and I missed it but NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis has been discontinued as of March. This is the primary source of all those analog composites you see posted in the discussion threads. As of now I’ve seen nothing in terms of what’s replacing it. How can that be? It’s a major tool. Hopefully someone can tell me I’m wrong and there is another option I just don’t know about for this data moving forward.

Gun to head a similar progression to 2016 is my thinking. Probably a not so great start to winter transitioning colder as it goes along. People forget how close we were to more snowstorms in Feb and March in 2016. It didn’t come together but the pattern was decent from Jan 15 on

Fringed

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations. If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part.

Ok im going to nerd out and vent here. For those who dont know, after they got creative control from Stan Lee Marvel decided Spider Man was easier to write for single and also said, and Im not kidding, that fans relate easier to a single lonely spider man. Apparently they think the fans are all incels. So they had him make a deal with the devil to erase his marriage to Mary Jane to save his 70 year old aunt. And no they arent unhappy in their marriage. They are both insanely in love which makes the story even more insulting. And frankly character destroying. How can you root for someone who would do something that horrific? The writing was lazy. The premise was ridiculous. The justification was insulting. It’s the one time Stan Lee violated his agreement not to criticize Marvels creative decisions. He also undid it in the news comic strip he kept editorial control of before his death and severed the continuity between his strip and the marvel comic because he was so upset by what they did to his character. The main writer at the time MJS who also wrote Babylon 5 wanted his name taken off that issue he was also so bothered by it. My reaction was simple. I checked out. I have not read or watched a single Marvel anything since. Not a single spider man. Not a single avengers. Nothing. I won’t give my money to an organization that insults me to that level. What amazes me is I’m not alone in my assessment of “One more day”. It’s widely considered the most hated comic story ever. There are thousands of online forums dedicated to how much people hated it and want them to undo it and put Peter and MJ back together. But then I see those same people posting about going to see Avengers or the new Spider Man movie. I am just as annoyed with them as I am Marvel. If they stopped giving them $ like I have they would have undid their mistake a long time ago. When I started my own personal boycott 19 years ago now I thought it would take 5 years tops before they undid this nonsense. It was so hated. But everyone got angry then continued to read and watch anything marvel put out and 19 years later I’m still waiting. I won’t ever read or watch until they undo OMD and get them back together and I don’t mean the casual dating they sometimes allow I mean restore the stable marriage they had and stop thinking spider man had to be a miserable single screw up to be a compelling character. His most popular run was the decades he was married. Anyways why are people supporting a franchise that would insult them this way? I don’t mean the casual fans who have no idea what I’m talking about. I mean the ones who fill up Reddit with how mad they are then go to the next movie.

my response to him was the best one

The configuration matters also. Some of the guidance is strongly east based and some is basin wide with one model I saw still indicating a mostly west based. If it does go super nino, a basin wide configuration gives us a much better chance at one huge event than the east based look on the euro. That last euro run would be a 1998 type winter. PUKE

Apparently he is ill. I only know what was posted in this thread a bit ago.