psuhoffman

There has always been high variability around xmas. However, it's skewing more and more the wrong way. Prior to 2010 the median high in DC on December 25th was 42. Since 2010 the median high is 51. From 1945 to 2009 DC had snow on the ground 13 times. It has now been 16 years since there was snow recorded OTG on xmas. There is always variability, but within the variability is a trend. December is the Winter month most affected by warming. Both in Temps and Snowfall. We are losing it as a winter month basically. It is what it is. We have lost about 18% of our snowfall climo in the last 50 years and December accounts for most of that loss.

This is just an observation, in 2019 and 2024 the canonical nino look on guidance would often make it as close as about day 7-8 on the guidance, then evaporate back out to day 14 or 15 and repeat. In the next few weeks it would be a very good sign if this look at at week 2 actually becomes a reality. If it starts remaining locked at hour 300+ then the models may be doing the same thing they did in the last 2 nino's. I have no insight here other than observing this trend.

Past does not necessarily correlate to future outcomes. But Chuck is 100% right about his observed flaw in the long range guidance. It wasn't just 2024, they did the same thing in 2019 also, continuously advertising a canonical nino look in the pacific that never actually materialized. That doesn't mean the same thing happens again, but it would be foolish to stick our heads in the sand bout that fact. Until we actually see a nino north pac pattern set in I would be skeptical also! I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based. But most won't want to hear this. He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast. The issue is how we get there. That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be. Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm. That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke. A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold. A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass. This doesn't mean we can't get a big snowstorm. There might we windows. The pac pattern will fluctuate some. We probably need a favorable AO/NAO and who knows. But we're going to be fighting some very uphill battles, some of which we have been fighting for the last 10 years. @CAPE you're right it can snow during these hostile underlying issues, but the fact is it has snowed less in the last 10 years than any 10 year period in history! No one is saying we know how the winter will play out for sure...but when making these seasonal predictions it's about probabilities, and the results under this pacific pdo regime have shown the math favors less snow. So yes we're rooting for a fluke, but you don't base a seasonal forecast one "maybe we get lucky".

They need to win more games now so it hurts worse when they lose in some kind of epic fashion in January. Buffalo falls into this category also. #cursedfranchises

I got at least 3+ qpf. My pond was really low and now its overflowing.

That was my last winter there and the only good one I experienced. I remember the Halloween snow.

Just a reminder, because apparently some people need to know this....thermometers are not subjective.

I generally agree but you are mentioning one of the closest analog periods to the last 10 years in terms of the longwave pacific and atlantic patterns. Actually the pattern if you just look at the h5 means for the early to mid 1970s was even worse! And if you look at the numbers you'll see we have done about 15% WORSE now wrt snowfall. This trend is evident in high snowfall periods also, the last favorable period was slightly less favorable then previous ones. So our current crappy pattern cycle is the bigger issue...but mixed within that is the fact that the background state for snow is degrading also.

The mountains just to our west did significantly better that winter. But there were several storms that were very close if it was just slightly colder. Of course things have warmed even more since then.

@Maestrobjwa keep in mind for a pattern to be valid you have to be able to explain WHY the pattern is happening. Otherwise it's likely the pattern is simply random. If you flipped heads 5 times in a row, and the only coin flips you ever saw in your life were those 5, you would deduce that coin flips result in heads if you are simply looking for patters and not factoring in random chance and causality.

2 counter points. 1) a sample size of 5 is way too small to pull a meaningful trend from 2) your sample is arbitrary. What made you include 1973 with a peak ONI of 1.9 and exclude 2024 with a peak ONI of 2.1? If you include 2024 then we are due this year. If you exclude both of those years, or just 1973 which most do not consider a "SUPER" nino, the whole pattern disappears. Either way I think my first point is the valid one...it's too small a sample size to try to find patterns like that. Most of your patterns are simply artifacts of random chaos in a stochastic system.

3 ninos is 3 ninos. You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining. But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis. I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter. Let's hope luck is on our side. But 2 things to keep in mind. The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend. And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since. Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad. It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad. That's it... it's pretty simple.

At some point we will get a big snowstorm again. I am not saying it will never snow again. However, we are in a hostile PDO cycle. You can track these long term cycles and see the impact on our snowfall. The issue is the hostile periods are becoming MORE hostile. It's becoming VERY difficult to get big snowfall years during hostile cycles. It was never easy during hostile pacific cycles but now its becoming increasingly unlikely to even luck into some fluke snowy seasons during a hostile period. Eventually we will... I don't think it's impossible just less and less likely. And eventually the PDO will flip again and we will have a more favorable cycle and probably a period of 15-20 years with "more" snowfall but the last 2 favorable cycles showed a decrease from period "snowy" cycles also so don't expect another 1960's or even another 2000-2016 period. But we will see snowier periods than what we've just experienced again. But my point is using past "normal" trends to set expectations is flawed since we know things are changing and becoming more hostile.

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways. We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently. Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state. The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either. If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row. At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.

BWI's average high on Xmas since 2015 is 52. December has been the month impacted the most by warming. The fact that SST's have warmed impacts the start of winter due to lag in water temps cooling. This has been documented...someone published monthly snowfall changes over the last 50 years and our area was the worst shade for December. January to March has been less impacted. Most of our decrease in snowfall climo has come from losing early in the season. It is what it is.

Who is saying it will be? Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.

I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!!

As long as it kills us with massive blizzards

Fringed

What I expect this winter

I share the same concerns, but a slightly warm seasonal avg would imply we "should" get cold periods because when it gets warm we tend to go crazy warm. I doubt we get a uniform near to slight above avg temp regime the whole winter. If we have volatility and it averages out to +2 that's fine...we can't snow anymore during warm periods anyways...just have to hit the big one during whatever cold we do get.

Dude… every time I bring up an example where it’s getting harder to snow you argue. Then you drop this.

If 98 was slightly colder…there were several storms that were close. It did snow up here that winter. Not a ton but lots of storms were a mix up here that winter. 5 degrees colder and 2-3 of those big rainstorms would have been snow. That’s what we have to hope for. 98 the pacific trough was just a bit too far east and overwhelming. 66 was the outlier in the other direction.

I’ve seen a ton of stories lately from both men and women justifying walking out on marriage for no good reason (I am not engaging in the gender war crap, there are good men and women and bad men and women. Gender doesn’t make someone automatically anything imo). Men and women saying you don’t need abuse or infidelity to leave someone and it’s fine to leave a good person who treats you well if you just aren’t happy. Now I fully admit I’m weird and no one to comment on what’s normal but…WTF! Why get married if that’s your attitude? Do the vows mean nothing? If your partner is good to you and you made a commitment….shouldnt you work on yourself? Ask why you’re not happy despite someone who loves you who you married indicating hopefully you love them too? Do people think it’s up to someone else to make them happy? Or as a society have we decided marriage means nothing now and it’s just a cute ceremony we do? I don’t get it. If you just walk the first time you’re not feeling it why get married at all?

I am on this Maryland Politics Forum and one of the threads was all these guys complaining about how awful women were and the thread author said "who even knows what these b**** C**** want... to which I replied, maybe not to be called that. 3 different guys responded calling me a f**. Did young men decide they never want sex again? WTF happened. And no that forum is not usually this toxic and the thread has now been deleted by the moderator but...jeesh