psuhoffman

So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow

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18z AIFs ens and eps did improve. About 1/3 of the members are snowy ETA: NW of 95

In the last 20 years we had a 5" snowstorm the last week of Feb twice. That is definitely NOT our best week...but there are other weeks during winter where we've had only 1 or NONE...so why is it that week you are obsessed with?

dude do you realize how rare getting a 5" plus snowstorm is on any particular week? How often in the last 20 years have we had a 5" snowstorm ANY week?

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting?

I agree with some of this. But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts. They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip" it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts. I like tracking threat windows. SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming. But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow" no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days. That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for. And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look. No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means. lol

The last week of Feb thing has been an anomaly for sure, but its mostly recent. Things run in cycles, and a lot of it is just random chance...like getting 5 heads in a row if you flip a coin enough times. Further back we had plenty of significant snowstorms the last week of February...off the top of my head... 2015 we got that storm that was 6-12" across Maryland and 3-6" in VA the last week of Feb 2007: there was a 4-6" storm after the V-day ice storm the last week of Feb 2005: there was a 4-8" storm the last few days of Feb 2003: there was a 3-6" snow the last week of Feb after the PD2 storm 1993: There were two storms across MD the last week of Feb, Baltimore had about 3" from both but NW of 95 got like 4-6" from both storms. They were both snow to sleet storms 1987: that wet snow bomb I love so much was the last week of Feb 1986: there were two storms back to back in late Feb combined it was like 5-7" further back I know there was a big snowstorm the end of Feb 1966, I think it was like 8-12" across Maryland Recently somehow it hasn't snowed that week but we've had some big snowstorms just a few days before and after that week...and in the past it has snowed that week...so its just a fluke of random chance. The fact that we haven't had much snow in general at all anytime lately makes it easier for it to happen.

Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter? not much. But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go. 2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March 2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6" 2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march 2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA 2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March 2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here 2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here 2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March. 2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks! But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th. Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow. I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it. They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been. I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean. But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things! When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does. Now... I do something else. Invest my time more wisely. However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting. Look at this PD threat. It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on. Thats valuable. We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at. The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance. We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways. The details weren't known until later. So it depends what your expectations are. IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that. But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.

I wonder why all the years on that list besides this year are from so long ago! lol

It's not that complicated. We need two things, a more amplified system and a slightly colder thermal profile. Both minor adjustments from what is the consensus. And...both kind of can be related to the same adjustment...a perfect track more amplified wave would also dynamically cool the thermal profile some! So in one way ONE adjustment would work. The random snow runs showing up from run to run across guidance aren't crazy different from all the non snow guidance...they just have a slightly more amplified wave and slightly colder temps. The UK was not that bad because it was damn close WRT amplitude compared to its last 2 runs which were WAY south. This one just missed us...slightly more amplified and it was a snowstorm for our area! That isn't wishcasting...that is what the model showed...it was close...and being close at 100 hours is good enough for me, it keeps us in the game. I admitted its a long shot but there is a difference between that and close the thread its over, next.

I glance at stuff in the long range but I've stopped tracking daily specific threats until they are inside day 5-6 and it's improved my mental health! Jan 2016 I was exhausted by the time it snowed...tracking every run for 10 days...worried it was going to rug pull...I would have enjoyed that much more had I not done that. And that was our last huge WIN and I didn't even enjoy it as much as I should have because of the anxiety of tracking it so long.

used to be, not anymore. I think at one point their physics were pretty similar, but the euro has changed several times over the last 10 years and I've noticed they no longer are in lock step as much as in the past.

Something I pointed out in the other thread...the 12z UK misses south, but it's closer to what we want...the storm trended north AND the thermal profile trended colder, such that had the storm been slightly more amplified it would have been snow across our area. It just slides south...but it was a win in my book because we got one of the two factors we need...cold, and it got closer with the track of the storm. Some are acting like this is 48 hours out. It's still 5 days away...time for trends and things to reverse and change a bit. It's still close enough...its a long shot...we need a lot to go right...perfect track and max out a very marginal airmass but it's not time to close the door on it completely yet. As long as expectations are in check and understood its a long shot.

The UK is a miss south...but in one way it's a win. We have 2 things we need here...precip and temps. The UK is colder! If the storm had tracked further north it would have been snow...no issues with that thermal profile as the storm slides to our south. That is important...the runs that are both weak AND warm are the really bad runs... I'll take the UK look...we would just need the storm to be slightly more amplified/north to win.

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run. It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing. I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution. We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other. We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track. That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing. Depending on where you're located of course...

We still have a thread the needle option for PD. It's actually pretty simple...strip away the mumbo jump technical stuff and we basically need a more amplified wave that takes the perfect track. That's it. Maximize dynamic cooling with a marginal airmass, perfect track to get heavy precip without any SE flow. Too weak and its rain. Too far north and its rain. We need both the track and the amplitude of the wave to be perfect. It's not complicated...but also not likely, but we're dealing with a marginal setup so we need everything to break out way. Time to get lucky! Long range... I was optimistic 2 days ago, but that was based on the EPS/GEPS look in the long range...I was tossing the GEFS...well because...its been hot garbage for a long time. Unfortunately everything has moved towards it the last 48 hours. It's not necessarily the absolute worse look...the Atlantic is still workable...the pacific is bad but its not the absolute worse...it would only take some slight adjustments here and there to turn it into a good enough look and adjustments that are well within likely errors...but of course those errors could be the other way and it ends up a total shutout look and winter is over. We will see. We need the NAO to trend a little more negative, we need that WPO ridge to extend over the top and put some pressure on that AK vortex. Those two things would take the current look the end of Feb and make it a lot more workable.

I have been crazy busy at work and don't have time to catch up at the moment so I apologize if this is redundant. But after looking at all of last nights data it's clear there is a path to a snow, especially NW of 95, but it's a narrow one. We need basically the 0z euro solution, or something close to it...0zGGEM. A storm that is amplified enough to dynamically cool the marginal airmass, and in the case of the euro maybe even amplified enough to draw down some of the cold that is just north of us. But this is a narrow path...but the reason that solution keeps showing up randomly across guidance is it's still there as a possible outcome. But the more likely outcome obviously is one of the many other options...either the wave isn't amplified enough and slides south...or we get light rain, or it amplifies but amps TOO much and ends up tracking too far inside and the snow is up in PA like the 6z Euro. There are several options left and only one leads to snow but it's still there. Maybe we get lucky this time! We're definitely due. For places SE of 95 they are in a bit of a double bind. We need an amplified system because of the marginal airmass. A weak wave will just be light rain. But an amplified system tracking in close enough would likely have too much SE wind component for those locations...and without any elevation...it's just a really uphill battle there. Not totally impossible but it would take everything going absolutely perfect...even in the good track amplified option.

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern

But that has nothing to do with my point. You’re focused on this synoptic setup and I’m focused on something that’s skewing the underlying pattern behind the synoptic setup

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing.

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now? You’re beating around it.

Chuck even recently 75% of the globe is red. We just got lucky the tiny speck of cold was over us. But what about the rest of the time? How do we snow when we’re not lucky enough to have the rare cold anomaly over us when the rest of the globe is a hopeless torch of +anomalies too warm to us to snow. You said it. We don’t her marginal anymore. Because the whole planet is tiny pockets of cold surrounded by warmth.

You were sooooo close