uofmiami

Coastal front lifted N of here.  Temp near 50 now and winds out of the S from the N.  .98 so far

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is a monsoon through next weekend

Cool & wet pattern, hell of a spring.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

MJO quickly collapses into COD within 7-8 days so expect any cold to be short lived

It was always going to be short lived.  The fact some wrote any cold off is another story.  Just like the heavy rain staying offshore and a map of 70 degree warmth being posted.  Have to wait until mid April for any sustained warmth IMO.  Otherwise, mid 50s to 60 the next few weeks with maybe a day here and there ahead of a front getting to 70 if we get lucky, especially for those of us on the coast.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like multiple freezes and even hard freezes likely just outside the city and immediate coast coming week.

Should put a damper on any early blooms and leafouts. 

EPS showed this a week ago, yet GEFS was posted with warmth instead.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really that cold- -5 in late March is 45-50.   It will feel like an ice age after the last few weeks though!

Mid 50s overall. Onshore flow and gloom won’t make it better, that’s for sure. Especially compared to the recent weather we’ve had. 

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Another 70 degree day here.

When we are in a torch regime, always add 3-5 degrees to the modeled consensus high temp.

 

 

Or watch the satellite loop & the mostly cloudy forecast was a bust resulting in the higher temps.

Assume that 72 in N Nassau is my station in Muttontown or Syosset, as both hit that.

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

Agreed & DT was as argumentative as ever too.  Time to move on and ignore them IMO. 

“New York City is 10 days early compared to a long-term average of 1991-2020.”

https://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/spring

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

My peak gust is only 36mph but I have trees that interfere with a WNW wind. It sounds more like gusts in the 40s.

That's the same peak gust Muttontown has gotten as well so far.

Gusted to 49mph in Syosset.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What does EPS show

Doesn’t fit the narrative. 
 

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It will suck if we get a frost or freeze when everything is out...

Most likely that is what will happen unfortunately. 

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow. Leaf out underway here in queens for many bushes. Much further ahead than Suffolk. Very surprised 

Not surprising. They don’t cool down much compared to suburbs.  Trees outside my office in Great Neck have open buds already.  

Just now, Roger Smith said:

They don't change clocks in SK (Saskatchewan), on CST all year round. And there's one town in BC (Creston) on  MST all year. I believe Arizona is also on MST all year. 

Hawaii also stays on Standard Time like Arizona.

64 at my stations for the high. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

We have tied or broken some record highs so far for March 3. 

Central Park: 65F - Ties previous record of 65 in 1991

Newark, NJ: 66F - Ties previous record of 66 in 1991

JFK: 64F - Breaks previous record of 63 in 1991

Bridgeport, CT: 60F - Breaks previous record of 58 in 2004

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI, Tropical Tidbits now posts the ECMWF's AI forecasts. It's 3/15 map screams "Beware of the Ides of March!" It's posted here for purposes of illustration only.

6Z run of the same model:

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG

I'm fine with it.  Once the sun is out the following day it melts quickly.  To each their own.

58 for the high at both my stations

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Beautiful morning. 53 and sunny 

Crazy temp gradient along the coast.  40 at Sagamore Yacht Club and it's 52/53 at my stations, 4-5 miles inland from Yacht Club.

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t know about anybody else but for this non-winter, there’s not a tree or shrub or fence on my property that has not been damaged by the heavy wet snow that froze over on several occasions. Very messy as I assess spring clean up

No issues with my hemlocks or green giant arborvitaes thankfully, they did well with heavy wet snow.  Happy I replaced the old bushes years ago with the arborvitaes when I redid the yard, they would have certainly snapped under the weight.  Lots of limbs down from pine trees around the area though.

3 hours ago, Kaner587 said:

@uofmiamihowd you make out? Assume 2 or less. I’m up at windham for the wknd we got about 1 here still snowing lightly 

Going to finish with 2.7” for this storm it appears. Not a bad refresh of the snowpack.  Enjoy Windham!

2.4” in Syosset at 8:30 @Kaner587