GreyHat
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Everything posted by GreyHat
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Start it 3 or 4 days before the event. The way things have been going, looks great this far out then seems to fizzle out, go south or maybe north with some rain as the the cold retreats. -
I noticed how the warmth on the Euro IA, GFS AI, GFS, EPS, EPSAI through Feb 17 18z. It will be interesting on how far the cold moves south. At the end of the 00z EPS run, it shows most of PA down to the 20s,
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Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck. I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40
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Yes, the week 12-14 which could be snow, sleet, freezing rain for Delaware. That's what the long range is showing right now. That would not be fun after this one we had.
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The news was showing snow at Ft Myers. They said it's off the gulf warm waters, kinda like lake effect.
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06z - 18z the system has gotten weaker and seems further south. Which could be due to the system by NY.
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I looked at the EPS/GEFS through Feb 7 and there isn't any real qpf. I also looked at those to the end of their model runs and still look bleak but didn't post as they show grey in the area, still not much for qpf.
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No I didn't, thank you for reminding me.
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Pretty dry for the area up to Feb 16 on Euro, Euro AI, GFS with the exception GFS AI is real wet.
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Unfortunately that's seems to happen a lot. The long range forecast including Euro AI show precip around the 13-15. At the moment not a lot. As you pointed out, Delaware and Maryland (at least where I work) will be in the upper 30s and around 40 with chance of rain, freezing rain and possibly of snow mix. The Euro AI advertising during it's entire 6z run snow growth mainly PA and western Maryland.
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Euro AI looks little like the ICON 6z
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JI your correct, as I grab it and didn't see that it had 3 average. My bust. ICON 6z says move south for qpf, nice hole of no qpf.
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Insomnia for what? Myself was due to being Furlough again.
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6z ICON says OTS
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The 0z Canadian says nada. Looks like a system coming down from Canada keeps the system south and ots.
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Yeah, but the AIGFS doesn't back it and is more like the NAM
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The 0z AIGFS looks like the NAM with heights rising in front. Cleaner more NE
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ICON 0z positive and flat out front allows system go ots. NAM 0z not as positive and has heights rising in the Atlantic and allows system to come up north. Of course it's at the long range that isn't accurate. Wait for AI models.
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The 18z AIGFS says what QPF.
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Yeah, but could cause severe flooding for people's basement and streams.
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The NAM shows a better trough but that Canada Lost likely will keep it south OTS. That's the problem with the current one and this one. Let's hope these Canadian lows don't keep ruining it for us.
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Looking at the 120 hr 500 level maps. The GFS has a positive or somewhat flat trough, whereas the ICON shows a neutral trough. EURO AIFS supports GFS with the positive trough. The GFS AI trough isn't as positive as the GFS and brings a little qpf to the MD area and south. This big system hitting our southern parts gets out of here.
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If the long range GFS was to be correct, it also shows HP 1054 coming down from Canada. That of course would push that system in the gulf OTS.
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Nws Baltimore put something out about it in their 5 a.m Hazardous outlook There is a Slight winter storm threat from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. If this threat materializes, there may be travel disruptions.
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Maybe for the in land peeps, but not good for the coast. Especially with all that ice, the rain would have nowhere to go except people's basements. Got the whole weekend to see what happens.
