KChuck

I think that the NHC is between a rock and a hard place forecasting canes coming up the Florida coast. Kind of reminds me of NOAA mets trying to forecast snowstorms coming across the mountains into North Carolina. You never know which way they will bounce kind of like a pin ball machine. There's a big difference between dealing with a snowstorm vs a cat 4-5 hurricane. There were a lot of timing variables with Ian as far as that front coming down from the north not to mention land interactions. And no one, not even the blog experts, forecasted Ian strengthening the way it did once past Cuba. Once that occurred all of the dynamics surrounding Ian changed dramatically putting the NHC into doing their best to save lives and not spread needless fear. Overall, I think that they did a good job with what they had to deal with.

At least he knew which way to lean into the storm. Wonder how long before one of these macho reporters gets killed by debris getting blown into them and giving them a mortal wound?

Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected?

How do you know? What are you basing this statement on?

When the moon is at its full or new moon phase, high tides are at their highest, while low tides are lower than usual. Called spring tides, these tides occur when the sun, moon and the Earth all line up. Quoting eather Mike post 17 minutes after yours:

I looked up the 1946 hurricane in the newspaper archives. You're not going to believe it. I'll let you read for yourselves. CLIPPED FROM Tampa Bay Times St. Petersburg, Florida 09 Oct 1946, Wed • Page 1

My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren.

A broken clock is correct twice a day. Also a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

A blind squirrel finds a nut now and then! A broken clock is right twice a day. etc. etc.

New NOAA computers news link From the news release: Does this mean that the GFS model will be able to be wrong three times faster than before???

Average southeast weather forum member's reaction if models don't go their way. And members that have been on here a while... And when everyone cashes in

https://www.gifss.com/juguetes/yo-yo/yoyo.gif

You forgot one.

Talk about feast or famine. We had 3.21" on Thursday the 11th and another .50" the day before on the 10th. Daughter who lives in Wallburg managed just over a tenth over the same two days. That's about some ten to twelve miles as the crow flies from us.

29.3 at 5am. Started the sprinklers on the grapevines at 2am to protect the young shoots just coming out.

29.3 at 5am. Started the sprinklers on the grapevines at 2am to protect the young shoots just coming out.

You mean you don't go out on the hour to break up the ice like they do on Mt Washington?

34.0/26.0 four miles north of Kville.

Just went out and put the covers on the car's side mirrors and windshield. I'm 5 miles north of Kville and wondering if I should have forced wife to bale out and gotten ourselves a hotel down south somewhere for the duration. Too much politics involved in marrying a farmer's daughter who was raised to tough things out

I'm curious about an observation I made coming home into Kville yesterday from Thomasville. Not much ice had accrued in the trees except where I was passing highways 311 and both 40s coming back 66 into Kville from the south. The trees at those ramps and along the interstates were pretty white with ice, where once you got away from the highways there was little. Curious as to thoughts as to why. Is it because of the air movement from the traffic, the topography where they cut into the land for the highways, or some other nefarious contribution? Just curious.

Ice increasing in Pine Knolls north of Kville. Ice on trees increased from minimal around 8am to this I just took.

Saw this on Twitter. Reminds me of this board to a certain extent. weathermen watching incoming weather on large screen

If the models forecasted it the way this year has gone, there'd be no icing!

I'm about 4 miles north of Kville. Just came back from checking outside. Light cold rain and no signs of ice on the car. There is some accumulated sleet at the bottom of the windshield so assume it's been a bit since it fell and rain had washed most away. Back deck just looks wet. 32.3/31.0

On the way to work this am I almost ran over a skunk!