GBOVolz
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Everything posted by GBOVolz
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Not everyone agrees with a SE solution. These guys are in the Ohio Valley region, so maybe this is Clickbait for their subscribers. .
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Pretty rare for a amped up storm to trend south isn’t it? .
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We are in that timeframe where the euro kinda loses its mind for a couple runs. .
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Miller B’s put me in a fetal position, overrunning events are not far behind Miller B’s for me. .
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AIFS on pivotal? .
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At this point, we need it to be pretty much where it’s at. The lesser of two evils is a suppressed storm at this stage. .
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I feel pretty confident that as long as we don’t see a cutter,IMO, we should not have temperature issues. .
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So I asked Mike Witcher about the AI mods. He said the euro AI will initiate the same as the euro OG but the AI mod leans heavily on climatology and that’s why we are seeing a cutter from it. He said as of now he feels like this is a snow event for East Tennessee, except for the southern Valley, which might get warm nose a little. .
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I haven’t read much about the AI mods… what calibrations did they make to the euro AI for it to show a different scenario from the original euro? Do we know? .
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Question… obviously the GFS/Euro use past events to help with modeling. Does the AI mods get samples from the GFS/Euro or is its algorithm separate from its originals. The reason I’m asking this is because we have had a lot of cutters since the AI mods have been out which would make sense why those are showing cutters now assuming they do not get past event samples from the original mods. .
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A little late but we had a nice sleet/grapple shower about midnight last night up here at our cabin in PF. Our place has a tin roof, so i thought WW3 had started. [emoji1787] .
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Sorry I screwed all that up. Ugh… .
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GFS NW trend the last several runs… .
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That is cool .
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So it’s moving towards 10 o’clock and we are stuck at 24° with a decent cloud deck that has moved in. WAA can overcome a solid cloud deck, but it’s gonna have to be a decently strong WAA. .
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Did you all see the wreck in Cookeville yesterday on I 40? They had a very heavy squall move through that initially melted, and then froze back causing terrible situation. .
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One of the analogues that I continued to see back in late summer to early fall for this winter was 2013-14. (I think) lol .
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I was thinking 2015 also but I’m terrible with dates .
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I can’t remember what year, less than 10 years ago, but on the NW side of a line from Morristown to London got hammered from a event that was forecasted to be snow, rain, snow but CAD kept everything snow NW of that line. I ended up with 9” and the temps never got above 28°. At the same time, Sevierville was all rain in the mid 40’s. Edit this to change NE to NW of the line. .
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Unless the winds are out of the SE, those temps don’t make sense to me. .
