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wthrmn654

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Everything posted by wthrmn654

  1. wthrmn654
    Nearly 2k workout power long island now
  2. wthrmn654
    0.70
  3. wthrmn654
    I will say that there's a low of the Carolinas with new one forming by delimarva
  4. wthrmn654
    Idk I'm cooking i can't look cook and eat lol I'm adhd,I might burn the house down
  5. wthrmn654
    This surge model forecast versus actual is spot on! GFS Based Guidance (ETSS)
  6. wthrmn654
    New low is forming right now and strengthening by delmarva
  7. wthrmn654
    Over 1000, without power pseg long island already
  8. wthrmn654
    Winds really cranking back up again and winds shifting to more east..
  9. wthrmn654
    Power outages on the rise on long Island
  10. wthrmn654
    Forecast was 4.7 feet, got to 4.3... in terms of guidance, not bad at all. Should the winds crank up and winds stay east ish, should be done flooding in morning.
  11. wthrmn654
    That's bland, that's what the weather rock would say.
  12. wthrmn654
    Even at game time is still not fully known what well exactly happen.
  13. wthrmn654
    -- Changed Discussion -- Generally minor to locally moderate coastal flooding occurred or is occurring with this afternoon high tidal cycle, as winds have been a bit on the lower side of ensemble guidance to this point, but moreso have been coming from the NNE vs more favorable NE/ENE for surge development. This forecast for late tonight and Monday afternoon high tides has been weighted towards a reasonable worst case scenario to account for closer to the coast depictions of low pressure track, providing a safety margin for planning. Water levels would fall on the lower end or short of current forecast range if winds remain more from the north versus the northeast. There is still potential for winds to veer back to the NE Monday if secondary low development occurs near the DelMarVa as suggested by some of the guidance. Potential for major coastal flooding for the southern bays of W LI and Jamaica Bay is dependent on the further north low pressure solutions and veering of winds to the NE. Overall, the magnitude and coverage for major coastal flooding (3ft inundation AGL) thresholds exceedance has decreased in the surge guidance as compared to yesterday for tonight and Monday afternoon, but still a modest threat of local major for SW Suffolk and Nassau County. This will pose an elevated threat to property, and potentially life. The potential for major flooding for Jamaica Bay is low, with moreso a widespread moderate coastal flood event (2 to 2 1/2 ft inundation AGL) Elsewhere, confidence is high in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western Long Island Sound, and twin forks of Long Island with combination of water levels reaching marginal moderate flood levels, along with 3- 6ft breaking wave action. In addition, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding expected along NY/NJ harbor, including the tidally affected rivers of NE NJ, particularly the Hackensack River. Meanwhile, a widespread minor coastal flood threat exist for southern CT where NE winds should limit wave action and keep moderate flood impacts to localized. In addition, scattered areas of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding expected along low lying areas along the Hudson R during times of high tide this aft thru Monday aft as surge if forced up the river. No change to coastal flood headlines, but messaging on major flooding has been tempered a bit based on trends. A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The 75th percentile was still used in the ensemble guidance to give credence to NE vs NNE winds regimes and tidal piling over successive high tide cycles. Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide today thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8 ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin forks of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate dune erosion. -- End Changed Discussion --
  14. wthrmn654
    Rain had overspread areas from NYC east as of 2 PM, and should pivot NW into the west of the area through the afternoon and early evening. Winds have actually decreased somewhat over land in response to the incoming rain limiting vertical mixing, but they should increase going into this evening as the pressure gradient tightens significantly between a 1030 mb high over Atlantic Canada and the low and associated warm front to the south, and as a secondary low develops along the warm front E of Delmarva and pivots back toward the Delaware or southern NJ coast tonight while the primary low remains well to the south along the Carolina coast. This secondary cyclogenesis appears to be just underway, partly in response to area of convection developing along the warm front near 37-38N 72-73W, and global models are in better agreement on this evolution. The forecast has still not changed much and no changes were made to headlines based on latest 12Z data. Rain expected, and isolated thunder can`t be ruled out near the coast late Mon afternoon via some modest elevated instability. Winds peak late this evening and overnight, and with models showing a moist absolutely unstable layer just above the mixed layer think the bulk of the 925-950 LLJ as forecast by the GFS should mix to the sfc near the coast, with gusts over 60 mph across ern Long Island, and 45-55 mph west of there into the rest of the advisory area. Highest winds should be in areas with greater exposure to NE winds off the water. -- End Changed Discussion --
  15. wthrmn654
    So it seems that the bigger winds timing had been delayed and bit just watching update by weather channel as is crawling up the coast but I will say my barometer is dropping pretty hard.
  16. wthrmn654
    39 mph so far that was at 315
  17. wthrmn654
    man that tides coming up fast. Went from minor flooding to now minor/ moderate for 3 pm high tide with moderate the next 2 after that....
  18. wthrmn654
    This goes way before the government shutdown though. A few years of all of a sudden piss poor model accuracy imo.
  19. wthrmn654
    Rain really wasn't suppose to get really going till about noon ish I thought. With that said. Slower moving storm? But a bit stronger resulting in stronger winds sooner?
  20. wthrmn654
    Low tide got to 1.22 feet now were going up i don't see any reason at the moment where bad flooding doesn't pan out
  21. wthrmn654
  22. wthrmn654
  23. wthrmn654
    33 mph gust so far, tides are running much higher versus all week so far low tide is now with first high tide about 3 pm today. Waves out here on the east end are quite impressive 2-4 feet( I'm very bad with guessing wave heights) plenty of white caps. Cross sound ferry to be London still running, for now but I expect them to cancel boats soon! Winds are deft increasing. The trees are screaming with all the leaves still on them.... Setup is deft there for decent power outages, especially areas that haven't had lines or poles upgraded since sandy. Let's not forget, prolonged dry/ drought on top of bugs or diseases will allow trees to be compromised/ weak.
  24. wthrmn654
    Gusting already over 30 mph out here.
  25. wthrmn654
    Bam. Told yeah lol
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