wthrmn654

dude you need to take a chill pill one minute your talking about one thing then seconds later something else then crying about the storm then starting the cycle over again... come on now

nhc said it would have bouts of bad stuff per the 11am discussion Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days. That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.

sat estimates. weakening flag is on as of 17 z, winds estimated at 57knots pressure of 987mb

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix 2024AUG14 172020 3.6 987.7 57.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -68.34 -58.08 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 20.97 67.92OES16 25.9

@WxWatcher007 id say your wish about only analysis and good posts versus reality didn't exactly go as planned. lol been some nonsense posts throughout at times lol maybe next storm!! Edit: and i won't name any names ! lol

ill show you the ensemble intensity map from 6z for example.

remember forecasts are used as a whole they include many models. if we just use the peak models all the time the world would be a huge disaster if those were always the overall storm outcome lol

my friend the data does not lie

models have it weaker barely a 3 now as of 12z 00z and 6z were moderate Cat 3s with some nearing cat 4

Fish for east coast, eastern Canada and Bermuda threat from this point forward. Front coming east slowed down a little so that's why the slight west shift in the long range.

Good God look at how fast that things moving west lol

Lol, now who hacked the cmc and put 1 ensemble track taking a prefect east coast track to the north east?

Jeez, it speed up to 28 WNW movement, insane !

100% fish system north of PR. Minus any wildly dramatic changes, Bermuda may or may not see something. With lesser effects down by PR... mind you this morning the wave was going west at 25 mphs very hard to develop systems at those speeds

5 pm it became Ernesto...

Poor guy on its own

You sure about that? After it get to about Bermuda it going northeast