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anthonymm

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Everything posted by anthonymm

  1. anthonymm
    3" works as well (95% success rate) but yeah gonna need to see just a dusting more before the park officially gets 3". Would really not take much at this point lol
  2. anthonymm
    Can confirm. Just took a long walk there. It was deep..
  3. anthonymm
    what does the "3" la nina december in the park" theory have to say about this?
  4. anthonymm
    Temps overperformed big time before. When I saw it hit 40 in central park I knew there was no way they'd cool down fast enough to have numbers like 4-5" verifying. Cpark needs an arctic antecedent airmass well below 32 for forecasts to verify now...
  5. anthonymm
    Newark and JFK seem unaffected. Forecasts should verify there with about 3". Here in Jersey City im sitting at 3" with some more to go.
  6. anthonymm
    Well it's not misleading if they work out about 1 in 10 times. Which I think they do.
  7. anthonymm
    Looks like this winter will be significantly different from the last few. As we all know 3-4”+ in a nina december stacks the odds heavily to a 30”+ winter for our area.
  8. anthonymm
    Has got nothing to do with UHI actually. Long Island's been in just as much as a snow drought. UHI isn't a factor during snowstorms cause the snow rapidly cools the surface.
  9. anthonymm
    Really? Have you considered that NYC hasn't gotten a 4" storm since 2022? LOL.
  10. anthonymm
    Thats how nina decembers go. Getting 0" is a la nina december is a great way to ensure getting a historically least snowy winter. This winter could be over by about the 15th if we dont have anything credible to track unfortunately
  11. anthonymm
    Yup I believe i pointed out 22-23 was a great analog
  12. anthonymm
    Threat for Sunday looks impotent
  13. anthonymm
    BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.
  14. anthonymm
    Cold dry warm wet. If we don't have HP the north then Dec 12 will be rain for the city. If we do it'll suppress south to Virginia. NYC metro is a really unlucky spot now for snow. Too south for the marginal/interior tracks, too north for the supressively cold tracks. Only way to get snow now is with benchmark tracks, which not even the fantasy GFS is showing. Likely <3" December---> low snow winter #4 of the 2020s.
  15. anthonymm
    Can see it being like Dec 24 or Jan 25. Below normal temps but we get all our precip from the odd cutter / coastal hugger when the cold pattern relaxes.
  16. anthonymm
    You going for < 3" or more than 3" by end of Dec in central park?
  17. anthonymm
    Monster +PDO in a warm neutral/moderate nino. NYC's not seeing a KU till the pac jet is utterly defeated.
  18. anthonymm
    You can claim to examine my psychology as much as you want but I'm sure you'd agree the smartest forecast one can do these days is aim low on I95 snow
  19. anthonymm
    Where have we seen the pacific ruining I95 snow chances before ? Oh wait.
  20. anthonymm
    Big difference between a 17” winter and 4” winter if you ask me. Central park 2.3 and 7.9 2022-2024, followed by low teens the following winter. That is definitely unprecedented.
  21. anthonymm
    The last few years is not the norm however either. We swung very hard in the other direction. 2022-2024 was the first central park saw back to back single digit " winters. It's unfortunate now that we can't get moderate yearly snowfalls in the 20"s like back in the 1980s. The default now is single digits or in the low teens" with rare exceptions like february 2021.
  22. anthonymm
    Sure. But we already see the pattern unfolding. huggers and suppressed, the dominant pattern since 2018.
  23. anthonymm
    Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow
  24. anthonymm
    Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed
  25. anthonymm
    u know it's getting serious when bluewave lets out a hint of optimism.
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