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Everything posted by cleetussnow
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I've been chewing through my wood pellet stash rapido. I think the wind was sucking the heat out of my house exacerbating the already cold temps. No wind and mild is welcome, but I'd trade it for a storm all day long. Don't see anything now that I feel great about tho.
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congrats DC
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set your watches to it.
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Cherry picking data. Exactly. Plus the fact that was a huge outlier type event got all our attention. I wrote a post about how perhaps looking at things from the oppositional point of view and see what it looks like as a way to clear the mind. I.e. review the models with the idea you'd like to see cold and dry in this case. If you did that perhaps you would have strong conviction the storm was not likely at all and the models were on your side, cut and dry. It would be like 'oh ok. its cold and dry period move on.' The peeps on here who like cold and dry or warm - this does not vindicate them nor validate their biases. DT always used to ask "what could go wrong" in his weenie storm forecasts to help keep things somewhat in perspective. I don't follow him anymore at all.- 993 replies
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
You and snowman being the only real people. Got it.- 993 replies
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Looking back - why were we so taken in by one model’s solution? Should have been easily discounted in hindsight. I guess the pattern was good enough but no other model timed the phase. Kind of feel like a sucker now.- 993 replies
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Interesting that the antarctic has recovered considerably. Seems right back in the middle ish.
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The dates ranges are out of sync
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Trashcans were like aerosols today in my hood
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while that look is good, no blocking opens the door for a bunch of other reasons a storm can miss.
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start a thread. Kill it.
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Just the phase is off because the northern stream is too quick. The pattern isn’t bad. There is a coastal.- 993 replies
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If we start a cutter thread...maybe something else will happen. Voodoo like the GFS ;-)
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
There can be no doubt now. Lock this thread and move on- 993 replies
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Walked straight into that one.- 993 replies
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
I would take some nickels and dimes. At least w'de get some snow while we have cold. I'd sign up for 2-4 right now, forget the risk of the big storm.- 993 replies
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Jan 11th-12th Super Bomb or Super Bummed?
cleetussnow replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
I have to see the GFS bring it back here in 20 mins and then the 18z Euro follow suit, then both through 0z or I'm 100% out. I thinking flakes here right now and that's fine, but one slight shift or run-on-its-own won't move me.- 993 replies
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