LordBaltimore
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Everything posted by LordBaltimore
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any obs from Frederick?
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we're getting 500:1 ratios. moon dust stuff. We only need like 50 flakes
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Need this squall line between hagerstown and frederick to hold together over south mountain
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Good timing for the refresher. Driving home from work today I don't think I've ever seen a dirtier snowpack here. It's way less like what we're used to and more like winters up north in an industrial town
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The urge to jump on one of those and float on it like a barge is overwhelming
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With the coming of spring I'm afraid the ice steps I sculpted as a short-cut down to my car will turn into an impassible muddy mess. A "rasputitsa" if you will that will hinder mobility
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Terrapin beach this afternoon. Wish I had those ice spike things for this, walk from road to beach was brutal, especially the last stretch right before the shoreline was an absolute sheet of glass
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Hey neighbor! Funny how out of the three years I'll have been in Columbia, lake Elkhorn has been walkable twice. Late January last year was solid enough to cross, though not as thick as it'll be this year of course.
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I'll take a nina every time. 12" of snow that's a puddle the next day < 2" that sticks around. The only time it's ever worth it is for the 2016 type 2 foot storms but that's a huge gamble.
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I just ordered some. Won't be here till tuesday so better stay cold or else they're just a self defense item I guess
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Had to drive out about 15 miles to the Montgomery county agricultural history farm park this morning to see negatives. My wife now thinks I'm a nutjob. But it was worth it. Low of 4 degrees at home
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Rivers are always more risky just b/c of how currents impact freeze up. Some of the tidal areas could be walkable in a matter of days, as well as any fast ice on shores of Chesapeake. Walking on some part of the bay is on my bucket list so I will be reporting on that when it's at least conceivably safe lol
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If GFS is right with long range progression I will be walking to Hart-Miller Island
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low of 6 at ****130am**** I have never been more pissed at wind in my life. Denyed yet again
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sounds like right in front of the garage is a good place to dump snow for next time
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had to do a double take because I'm moving to a house in Baltimore next week that has that exact setup, lmao. End of group house on alley with concrete pad and people with garages up the alley. Hope this isn't a common theme
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Corrected reflectivity showing extent of Chesapeake bay ice as of this morning. Should start to explode tonight with calm winds
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it's a radiational cooling night now that the winds are dying off. There's probably a 5+ degree difference between different sides of your house depending on sky exposure and distance to heat sources. Many parts of the city will reach single digits
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Everybody saddle up. Set your alarms. Make sure your outdoor temp sensors are in working order and properly sited. Tonights the night We're going sub-zero
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Hoping the precip shield extent is being incorrectly modeled and we can at least cash in on a 2-4" type deal. Morning runs look like a close scrape so we could still cash in if that's the case
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I'm not super familiar with the land surface part of modeling but I really wonder if the reason models have busted on min temps so far is that they had the surface progged as snowpack when it's really a sheet of ice at this point. It's easy to get very low skin temps with snow b/c of insulation, but harder with ice because of heat conduction from below
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I don't believe so. AIFS takes Euro analysis members and uses them as input to an ensemble of AI models. AIFS and AIGFS aren't bad really since they're run by met centers. It's the "observation driven" models where you see the most shady verification practices.
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Any physical model + postprocessing with same ERA5 dataset would beat anything AI is capable of when trained as a forecasting model. I'm not sure why this isn't done already tbh
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Good idea to not trust it. The verification process for many of these models (especially anything not fed analysis data as input) is extremely suspect almost to the point of being an outright scam, although most cases I think are just incompetence. A lot of their claimed advantage is just removing representation error
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Regardless of outcome this is a really interesting setup. Normies talk about how models can give/take-away 2 feet of snow four days out but this is a perfect example of how nonlinear dynamics can make huge things impossible to predict with certainty even at close range
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