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LordBaltimore

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Everything posted by LordBaltimore

  1. LordBaltimore
    Everybody saddle up. Set your alarms. Make sure your outdoor temp sensors are in working order and properly sited. Tonights the night We're going sub-zero
  2. LordBaltimore
    Hoping the precip shield extent is being incorrectly modeled and we can at least cash in on a 2-4" type deal. Morning runs look like a close scrape so we could still cash in if that's the case
  3. LordBaltimore
    I'm not super familiar with the land surface part of modeling but I really wonder if the reason models have busted on min temps so far is that they had the surface progged as snowpack when it's really a sheet of ice at this point. It's easy to get very low skin temps with snow b/c of insulation, but harder with ice because of heat conduction from below
  4. LordBaltimore
    I don't believe so. AIFS takes Euro analysis members and uses them as input to an ensemble of AI models. AIFS and AIGFS aren't bad really since they're run by met centers. It's the "observation driven" models where you see the most shady verification practices.
  5. LordBaltimore
    Any physical model + postprocessing with same ERA5 dataset would beat anything AI is capable of when trained as a forecasting model. I'm not sure why this isn't done already tbh
  6. LordBaltimore
    Good idea to not trust it. The verification process for many of these models (especially anything not fed analysis data as input) is extremely suspect almost to the point of being an outright scam, although most cases I think are just incompetence. A lot of their claimed advantage is just removing representation error
  7. LordBaltimore
    Regardless of outcome this is a really interesting setup. Normies talk about how models can give/take-away 2 feet of snow four days out but this is a perfect example of how nonlinear dynamics can make huge things impossible to predict with certainty even at close range
  8. LordBaltimore
    Seems like every model pretty much has a bimodal distribution of members OTS vs nearby, with significant uncertainty, and the deterministics are just honing in on different peaks of that distribution
  9. LordBaltimore
    If the GFS wins here by some miracle I don't ever want to hear people badmouthing it ever again. And that includes myself
  10. LordBaltimore
    Really hoping the weekend threat materializes. I carved a set of snow/ice/sleet steps into the hill that leads down to my parking spot, and a meltdown two weeks from now without some fluff to insulate it would be a critical hit to my personal infrastructure
  11. LordBaltimore
    TERRAIN! TERRAIN! PULL UP! PULL UP!
  12. LordBaltimore
    I think you indirectly hit on something many people discover in their 20's. No, it is not enjoyable to track a storm every model run for 7 straight days. It's an obsession. But you don't become an expert in anything without being at least a little bit obsessed. And in that fact lies a trade off. Is this for fun, or is it something you dedicate your life to for it's own sake? Everyone makes that choice on their own
  13. LordBaltimore
    Question for mets. What factors here determine the extent of the precip shield? Seems rather narrow on GFS for low that deep
  14. LordBaltimore
    More than that. If it were physically possible to pull a Tonya Harding on an atmospheric feature to get more snow I would do it with no remorse
  15. LordBaltimore
    HRRR says 850 winds die down sometime between 1-4am so hoping that's when temps start dropping out
  16. LordBaltimore
    This is why AI will never be able to predict snow totals. The dataset is awful
  17. LordBaltimore
    they were accounting for slantsticking
  18. LordBaltimore
    HRRR says we get to 4 below and who am I to question our flagship CAM
  19. LordBaltimore
    just want to see some snow on snow action here. Even if it's a 2-4" type deal
  20. LordBaltimore
    if you drive 5 miles south of Norfolk to the Great Dismal Swamp you can see alligators in the summer. Sorry for banter
  21. LordBaltimore
    Can't say for sure but if you want something interesting to look out check this out: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_mapplots.html?ofsregion=cb&subdomain=0&model_type=wtemp_forecast The bay is very cold right now and places below 30 on that map are where freezing is imminent
  22. LordBaltimore
    LFG! Makes me feel like I'm 15 again. Snowpack for weeks and weeks
  23. LordBaltimore
    I would give all my snow to see that as painful as that trade would be. That's a once in a lifetime kinda thing I believe. Never seen it in my life at least
  24. LordBaltimore
    GFS and Euro suggests at least 5-6 nights where subzero temperatures are a possibility in the DMV. Will be fun when these come into range for high res models If anyone in the area can get calm wind overhead the bottom could easily fall out
  25. LordBaltimore
    You need cohesion between flakes. That's why warm snow is best. Sleet just falls apart. Back in the day we'd just dig caves into whatever piles people plowed onto the side of the road
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