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LordBaltimore

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Everything posted by LordBaltimore

  1. LordBaltimore
    MECS is best of course but that norlun on the icon would be cool for the novelty value
  2. LordBaltimore
    For the love of God can people stop using teleconnections like this? If all that weather prediction was was matching patterns then the AI models would win every time. Ironic because the AIFS is showing the best snow right now and it takes into account like several hundred million indexes besides the PNA and NAO speaking abstractly
  3. LordBaltimore
    They do this for the same reason that chatGPT hallucinates if you don't phrase the prompt correctly. AI is very good at things like 500mb patterns that are relatively linear and confined to specific modes that have been thoroughly sampled in ERA5. It is not good at all at things that are highly nonlinear, conditional on sequences of events with a very broad phase space of possible outcomes - like the phasing of a storm or snowfall accumulations. You need information from a physical model to get that right
  4. LordBaltimore
    If BWI managed those two consecutive stretches of snowcover, I'm really curious if favored places to the northwest had a continuous 2+ month snowpack that year. It's interesting from a historical perspective b/c there's no satellite data, so there's no way to tell other than personal anecdotes
  5. LordBaltimore
    I'm amazed that there's still some semblance of a snowpack outside my window after the conditions this weekend
  6. LordBaltimore
    Just need the pack to last until 1am-ish tonight to make 3 weeks. We can do it
  7. LordBaltimore
    Down to 19 here. Wasn't expecting it to radiate like this before the torch tomorrow. nice surprise
  8. LordBaltimore
    My question is how hard is it to drive in places like this without spending 60K on truck. Could someone just stick studded tires on say a Camry and be ok up there? Low of 22 in Columbia.
  9. LordBaltimore
    verification scores on the placement of global 500mb anomalies don't mean much for events like this. None of these models are verified based on ptype
  10. LordBaltimore
    If we're talking geo-engineering for more snow then I think we should mandate people replacing furnaces with heat-pumps. Make it hot inside by extracting outdoor heat. Imagine every house in DC and Baltimore running one of those in winter. Big office buildings too. We'd get an urban cool island, it'd be snowing in downtown Baltimore rain in Towson
  11. LordBaltimore
    If there wasn't any gatekeeping this place would just be facebook with some dumb*** talking about how the weatherman got it wrong again
  12. LordBaltimore
    Lol, you'll piss off a lot of people calling it not science but I like it. What we do with modeling is built around science, it's based on pure scientific principle, but it takes human spark and ingenuity to really get to the top level. Parameters need to be tuned, ensembles need to be interpreted in a way that makes sense to the public. It's an art and a craft really, and that's cooler than a bunch of gears
  13. LordBaltimore
    It's not that simple. Like not at all, in any way. Yes, the climate is warming from human emissions, but that doesn't translate to "baroclinic boundary moves X miles north". And there's no way to even calculate a half-way semi reliable change in temperature because of various knock on effects related to clouds and patterns of heat distribution . It's not a linear equation like that.
  14. LordBaltimore
    Saw some really nice snow devils/snownados out on tridelphia lake this morning. Wish I could've got some actual pics but hands were totally numb
  15. LordBaltimore
    Euro really moderating the warmup which is a nice surprise. Snowpack till late February?
  16. LordBaltimore
    sn+ here for last 20 or so minutes. Absolutely pouring. Once again the 3am bird gets the worm! Picked up about 1/2 inch so far from this band
  17. LordBaltimore
    any obs from Frederick?
  18. LordBaltimore
    we're getting 500:1 ratios. moon dust stuff. We only need like 50 flakes
  19. LordBaltimore
    Need this squall line between hagerstown and frederick to hold together over south mountain
  20. LordBaltimore
    Good timing for the refresher. Driving home from work today I don't think I've ever seen a dirtier snowpack here. It's way less like what we're used to and more like winters up north in an industrial town
  21. LordBaltimore
    The urge to jump on one of those and float on it like a barge is overwhelming
  22. LordBaltimore
    With the coming of spring I'm afraid the ice steps I sculpted as a short-cut down to my car will turn into an impassible muddy mess. A "rasputitsa" if you will that will hinder mobility
  23. LordBaltimore
    Terrapin beach this afternoon. Wish I had those ice spike things for this, walk from road to beach was brutal, especially the last stretch right before the shoreline was an absolute sheet of glass
  24. LordBaltimore
    Hey neighbor! Funny how out of the three years I'll have been in Columbia, lake Elkhorn has been walkable twice. Late January last year was solid enough to cross, though not as thick as it'll be this year of course.
  25. LordBaltimore
    I'll take a nina every time. 12" of snow that's a puddle the next day < 2" that sticks around. The only time it's ever worth it is for the 2016 type 2 foot storms but that's a huge gamble.
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