BristowWx

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seriously or are you trolling?  I'm out and about right now

It’s pretty sweet.  For Nov at least.  Positive snow depth change is not too shabby. 12K

Why couldn’t this happen next Thursday.  It does look at least seasonally chilly for turkey day.  

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

We’ll enjoy our 10 minutes of sleet followed by an 1” of 34 degree rain.  

Well you didn’t use the emoji with the ax in his head so can’t be too bad

7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'm probably five or so miles NW of you Bristow. Those five miles may be the difference between a white icy landscape and puddles and puddles of ice cold rain. lol

My biggest fear is that exact scenario.  But I now totally expect that.  I live west of 28 near the Safeway.  No doubt where the R/S line will set up.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Let the 31.8 degree daylight ice storm talk commence!

That’s the temp that always gets me.  My tired eyes want to see 31 on my digital thermometer and then closer look is 37...tear inducing discovery

10 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I'm roughly 12 miles to your east Southeast so I will be able to report on my change over so you know what's headed your way.

Thanks.  Jeb used to do that.  I live just south of Wonderdog.  Let’s hope the freezing line stays right along 95.

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Zr has its moments.

I would like to see a real ZR event with temp of 20.  Not too common in these parts.  28-32 is just watching my holly tree get shimmery 

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

My bar is 2 inches of anything cold. Always nice to record anything before Turkey day.

Except rain which will also be cold.  Still I think our location is not awful.  Not great but we might be able to hang on to frozen in W PW for a decent amount of time.  1 inch of something frozen.  Good enough for me. And a short period of fatties.

I believe sleet will be the big story for many when we do the after storm analysis.  Thickness just not great for many to support a good snow event.  Ice is cool.  

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains

I think there will be a fair bit of IP.  I’m not one to be too positive but I think most areas west of the bay will see a period of frozen more than just TV snow.  Sun angle is ok if that matters. 

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Just put under a watch here

That is sweet.  I am hoping for a token WWA.  Maybe just maybe

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Likely for you, yes. Borderline for the M-D line zones probably. 

right.  HWO ugly beige for NOVA I bet...east of 81 at least.  Still, frozen of any kind is a win in my book especially in Nov. in my neck of the woods. 

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sooo I guess I should prepare myself for some snow Thursday

Yes that would be best.  I am preparing for you to get some snow Thursday.  I bought a box of Kleenex to mop my tears

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday.  A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain.  Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up.  Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday.  Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here).  

10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city.  While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all.  I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow.  Just my guess at the moment.

Totally reasonable.  The more extreme solutions don’t make sense to me.  It’s cold but not exceptionally so.  We would need it further east and much lower thickness this early.  528 or lower. Conversational east of 81.  

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102"

They provide the detail and nitty gritty

Or DC CRUSHED at 102...personal favorite

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

along with @showmethesnow and @nj2va and @stormtracker

And you..our favorite play by play guy.  Seriously you are the best at calling the frames

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads.  I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them.  

psu, mappy, and Ji..they are also solid.  

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Damn, and I was just about to not stay up for the EURO.

 

That is weather porn.  I haven’t had the guts to look at the Euro.  Will wait for someone smarter to analyze it. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Ask me in a week 

Hmmm.  Sounds like I won’t need that firewood.  As expected. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Euro Control cuts off under us at day 8 at h5. That whole day 7-9 maybe worth keeping 1 eye on .

How does turkey day look?  Afraid to look. Just want it below 55. 

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Snowing in McHenry per my Ring cam and Wisp looks like they are making snow per the Wisp cameras.  

In Arlington, its raining leaves right now.  

It’s snowing leaves here.  I refuse to say rain unless I have to.  

Thanksgiving looking warm in the last few runs of GFS.  That is my unofficial totally unscientific benchmark.  Christmas will be warm.  I can feel it in my bones.  

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

 

And so it begins....game on...No rest until April.  

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

just for giggles... check out #2 analog. lol

 

Wasn’t 11-8-87 the big snow for Vets day? It was 11-11-87...still the set up had to be there

28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

LOL.About the best I can do is forecast sunny and temps in mid 70's. That's about as close as I usually get.

That is a safe forecast and fits climo..not real climo but MA despair climo...the more accurate climo