BristowWx

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible.

I mean could you ask for a better snow map 6 days out?  It would take a serious fail for most of this sub forum to not get snow next weekend.  How often are we in this position.  CMC is chuckling right now

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Good spot!

That’s a VA state of emergency type storm.  One tick north and it can stop. 

Just now, Ji said:

What's the ensembles be souther of 12z lol

Drunk already?  Nice it is happy hour

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Bristow, your one model run away from double digits.

Yes you too..unless the cut off is so severe every mile represents 1 inch...then I am sorry...we can chase to Nokesville

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the marginal airmass in place, this is a valid concern. But the reality is this is a concern in most set ups for I-95 and east. And we talkin early Dec here.

Still I like our chances with this.  All day long I will take that set up.  Even If I don’t jackpot.  

1 minute ago, GATECH said:

LOL, 12z vs 18z

So I get about 6 inches on that and 25 miles to my southwest gets about 20.  Ok well I am sure I richly deserve this outcome 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the gfs verified verbatim it would be the most depressing storm of my life and would knock boxing day and march 2013 out of the top 2 spots. 

I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others.  that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out.  

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Looks like a nina map...lol

there is an evil face in Ohio...must be the NS throwing some sort of evil hex our way

7 minutes ago, RobertRath said:

I know everyone is focused on this storm but I’m interested in December in the long term after the storm. Have we dodged the extended, big warmup people were seeing days ago?

considering we cant resolve h5 details for next weekend with any degree of consistency I'm gonna say no to that question.   

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good morning!  Liking the overnight runs. Fingers crossed the north trend is underway...

Would have felt better if 6z FV3 was not as suppressed.  It was easy to see why just looking at h5.  just another data point I suppose 

Site crashed at hr 138 on TT for me.  Of course it did. 

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z gefs just coming in and the  mean bumped north .

If nothing else at least at this point there is one factor we need to watch...h5 confluence...not waiting for cold air..not moisture starved or waiting for a phase...its either a 1 or 0...either it comes north or it doesn't...makes it simple at least right now.

Confluence looks a touch stronger on FV3 just looking at h5 at hr 138.  only out that far but it might be a close call getting it up far enough north.  We shall see.

21 minutes ago, Scud said:

Thought you went to sleep.....

Decided to just go to work and wait for 6z runs...I have a problem.

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster.  So that's good I guess

6 days still.  Looks solid to me.  You know what’s happens if all guidance shows a hit. I feel pretty good about this and I never feel good..ever.

15 minutes ago, Scud said:

Its all good gentleman. 00z Euro moved north to our doorstep, FV3 8-12,  CMS a general 10-14. Theses Gulf Lows seem to jog north in the end. At this point, it's all good.....

It appears so.  Next thing we will have to worry  about is too far north.  Throw that in the mix.  But a good night and goodnight!

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 is a crush job at least for my direct area. Great track from CHS to Hatteras. Been fairly consistent as well. Anyone know about it’s verification scores since it’s inception?

You don’t need panic just a good snow shovel.  It would take a major shift for you not to get snow.  Yeah buddy!

NS relaxes and it’s show time.  Not too shabby.

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

FV3 is better than the OP. 

Yes much

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Jan 16 was one in a million. The only time we get stable long lead stuff is when there's a stable west based block. Feb 2010 was similar in that regard but both storms (especially the second one) when through many ups and downs at long leads. Dec 09 had doubts 48-72 hours out. 

In this hobby it's a good rule of thumb to never get invested until d4 and even that is pushing it  

I’d still rather be in this position...waiting for south trend is pure folly.  I bet this comes north but just falls short.  A closer miss perhaps.  

18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

The longer we wait for this storm to possibly reach the area, the worse odds we have. Hurry Up!!!!

Keep the faith!  We often make incredible comebacks that often fall just short.  18z next up...get ready. 

4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Trying to put the pieces together on latest run.  GFS, FV3, CMC and Ukie were on track for a nice hit while the Euro and JMA were drunk. Is that about right? 

That’s a good synopsis.  Still 7 days out.  Anything on the table

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

6-12" for Atlanta, 16-20" for Athens.

That has to be a rare event.  Before 15 Dec...maybe never.  But it won’t go down that way I am confident.  Not sure why but I am.  

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could be my weenie filter, but that vort map at 198 looks similar to Jan 2016. Anyone else sort of seeing that?

Yes.  A Warner version.  I see where you would need obscene rates to keep the column cold enough.  But what the heck it looks fun regardless. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me being fringed at this range is a good thing. When I say I don't want to see suppression I mean I don't want to see some weak arse 1015 low limping uselessly out to see off Jacksonville and no precip north of Raleigh. We want it a little south. You definitely want me to be fringe city right now. I just don't want to be seeing it target the Carolinas. A central VA Jack is a good look right now imo. This run has my endorsement. 

That’s good enough for me.  When you are ok with fringe then we should all be able to relax.  It all comes down to h5 and that looked many ticks better than 6z.