BristowWx

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Looks like around  8 days from now, we have some blocking setting up and a pretty good coastal developing. Right now, it's a close meteorological miss. I love chasing ghosts!

I’d like thanksgiving to be cold if possible.  We tend to fail on holidays when it comes to cold.  Whatever you can do would be appreciated

BWI : 13.8

DCA : 6.7

IAD :  12.6

RIC : 8.7

Tie Breaker - SBY: 7.4

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Dare I say it reminds me of the leadup to 09-10? :ducks:

Sure why not.  I still think we dial up the despair index to 10 and work backwards...switch things up 

I don’t think we would ever see a more bullish prediction from a mainstream weather source this early in the season.  That looks just fine to me. I hope it domes in multiple 2-4 inch events vice one big one.

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls.

I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012.

And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall. 

Without any scientific reasoning you can almost always predict less than historical average snow for the MA and usually be right regardless of the setup.  So many things have to go our way for it to snow especially 95 corridor. I’ll predict a tick below normal maybe just not 2 ticks this year.  

The WPC watches and warnings map is a sight this morning.  practically nothing going on any where of any kind in any part of the US.  October calm I suppose. 

6 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

28.6 west side of Woodbridge.  Pretty good FREEZE and forecasted well. 

yes.  with the Freeze warning out of the way we can move onto other more interesting watches/warnings.  I would like to see some of the more rare ones happen.  Ice Storm Warning or maybe Freezing Fog....Heavy Freezing Spray perhaps...not likely but we can hope.   I like the lime green color of the Blizzard Watch.  So much promise and hope early in the season...like a sailor just going on shore leave.   

Frost on the pumpkin here.  29F.  Impressive I must say.

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Freeze Warnings up along I-81 corridor for tonight... frost advisories for the rest of the LWX CWA including the metro areas and S MD.  Frost advisories call for lows in the mid 30s... freeze warnings call for lows in the lower 30s

My zone says 32.  We shall see.  But this is s nice start to the cold season.  The first part of October spooked me.  

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

Anyone catch that storm SE of Bermuda day 10 on the Euro?   It's Florence.

Any precedent for that?  Storm hits makes a big circle and redevelops to hit again...would it still be called Florence? 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it.  So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system.  

Is there that much shear out there?  Can’t be SSTs..so many factors to consider.  

3 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ?


.

I see your point...by the tine it reaches the Gulf Stream it’s already interacting with land somewhat...even if the water was 35C would it make a difference?  Not sure.  Someone here knows this answer.  

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Me too.  Unfortunately, it's not coming for at least the next 10 days.  Staring at a 6-day run of 90F in September is just sickening.

You know we don’t cool down without a huge fight.  October before we can even think about low 70s for highs.  

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

If you were expecting his winter outlook you are 2-2.5 months to early. 

Even if he did one no one would believe it anyway.  Always expect disaster until it’s actually snowing.

On 8/26/2018 at 6:42 PM, Rtd208 said:

DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be

It was an exceptional synopsis.  Great reference for those of us who didn’t know what QBO and MODOKI really mean.  Seems like a regular Nino is not what we are really after.  Good analogs in the mix with a couple of duds.  We shall see.  

On 8/23/2018 at 6:18 PM, Jebman said:

Embrace THIS.

I am now on my way to Buda, Texas. We are driving.

I will soon not be in-state.

This, is why you will all get buried alive in deep snow this winter, Winter 2018-2019.

You know this is true. You will get buried in deep snow so badly even the National Guard will not be able to help you.

It won’t be the same without you.  I’m saddened by this news you won’t be here.  Obs from Texas are not that exciting.  

9 minutes ago, Jebman said:

13-14 was pure heaven. Snow lovers were flying HIGH.

Don’t know Jeb...luck rules around here beyond teleconnections..we have missed some sure hits without explanation...of course there were scientific explanations but we if the rain/snow line is no where to be found we manage locate it.  Or we end up with dry air where the snow can’t advance past Dale City...remember those events.  3 am and no first flakes  

Old Farmers almanac forecast is warm and wet for our region.   I will take that and run. Almost time folks..I’m ready. 

18 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end). 

Your posts always sound like you are drunk.  Don’t drink and post.

1 hour ago, EverythingisEverything said:

• Do you think SE VA is done with its acummulating snow chances this winter?

Yes

4 hours ago, mrdaddyman said:

So we went from no storm on the Euro and a LP way off the SE Florida coast on the GFS to . . . an Apps Runner on both, in less than 24 hours. That's just crazy.

I don't think the Euro is apps runner.  Looks well off Delmarva at 96

I expect the Euro to be snow in JAX..which would be great for them

It won't look that bad.  Even I know that.  It will look worse.  1998 bad.  2001 bad.  

2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

We can only hope for the best right? XD

Right. The best.  We can hope.  Wait...hope is lost