BristowWx

186 looks decent.  I think that red is actually heavy snow.  If so then first time I have seen that virtually.  

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 Agreed. The FV3 run was good enough for me for early  December. 

At least it would be cold enough for the good dendrties.  But just like Hurley on Lost I have a bad feeling about this

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'll go a small step further. If you're right about the 12z runs and you very well may be, I think this storm is toast. Seems to me we need the 12z runs to correct the 6z runs right away which would relegate the 6z runs to a "blip". 

It would be nice to get a few inches.  Doesn’t have to be a monster HECS for me.  FV3 looked ok for that.  But I agree that once it goes south it might just keep going until it’s just crushed.  Tough to recover from that as the models get a better handle on things.  The most important runs on the season coming up.

Just now, showmethesnow said:

500s bear little resemblance to the previous run.

Indeed.  Blip or start of something sinister who knows

Glad most are asleep.  6z won’t make any friends.  That’s is a wall for sure.  Wake up Ji

6z looks really suppressed so far at 162. Like what storm suppressed.  

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know what to do.

I think he likes when you tell him to shut up.  

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Without big deep cold, any track up into KY is going to suck. Midlevels get torched easy. We need a clean miller A for a big hit imho

Goes without saying but 8 day op run of GFS and not worried with Euro on our side. Now if the Euro caves a bit then we’ll you know..

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. 

Agree.  It blows as depicted for most of us.  Low over OC with retreating cold means cold rain after front end snow to slop.  Not even close to 6z.  Better version of 12z.  We toss.  Why not?

I can already see this op run will be more south just looking at the 528 thickness. 

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

I think the quote is "Weenie life isn't for the faint of heart". Showing my confidence, I went to Lowe's and picked up a new snow blower!

Oh boy. If this fails we know who to blame. I recently bought a new Jeep Wrangler so I will share that blame!

8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Bristow, I think so too. I'll feel better on Tuesday if we're still in the game.

Yeah I’m living and dying by every post and model run.  Weenie life ain’t for everyone.

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

So hard to keep my excitement in check with this one. This one is screaming big dog to me.

Try brother.  It’s easier on the soul if you keep your excitement burn like kerosene vs. gasoline.  There are many bumps ahead on this road.  Like others I have seen things turn south just a day or two before showtime. 

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's a great run. No too many pure southern sliders and a ton of hits. A few are so big that even Ji wouldn't complain.... nah, who am I kidding 

Starting to be confident it will snow next weekend.  No ideas beyond that.  That’s a win for sure!

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This to me appears like a re-retreating high.

 

 

Just needs to be cold enough right.  But there isn’t much wiggle room I agree.  All snow is a tall order anytime of the winter so if we can score a front dump then I guess we need to thrilled. 

FV3 looks similar to regular.  Slower but better front end action.  

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yeah, cutter incoming.  Oh well, to be expected 

I guess it wouldn’t be fun if every run was a mauling.  Like fish just jumping in the boat or deer throwing themselves in the back of a truck. 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs looks hecsy

Yeah I would call 6z a pure crush job for DC.  Not even exaggerating on that call

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

I can live with this.

Not sure who put that 16 over my house..but thank you God

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to have that feel. Southern stream storms that enter around LA or San Diego have a lot of history here.... Ops can do pretty well at longer range with these. 

Still have 20 mins to change RIC in the contest thread if you believe the gfs.... nah, that's crazy talk 

The whole system moved like 300 miles north from 18z.  You are safe my friend.  Just model porn.

Mid Atlantic mauling. Snows for hours.  

Couple inches..would be fine for this early season event.  I know better than to be greedy.  I still think suppression will be the least of our worries next weekend.  

7 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said:

Just checking haha

That was funny..you be drinking tonight.  That is the bench mark for every possible Dec storm.  At least in my yard

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Sure did.

Then the 6z GEFS shifted notably towards southern Florida, lol.

its going to be quite a week trying to will this thing north, south, east, west...another tick, stopping the ticks, preserving the sweet spot...we are all in now

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Why are we Discussing exact placement of 850 0c lines, rain snow lines, etc 8+ days out? Let’s focus on the teleconnections, the placement of the jet stream, blocking and snow cover in eastern Canada etc. The finer details will come into sight as we get closer. At this point, a storm being in the area is looking likely. But let’s not bite too early. It’s still possible the storm hits the interior northeast, or the opposite, it slides to our south. The setup is iffy and I’d like to see this improve at h5 850 700 before getting excited. Until then, it’s looking more likely that a snowstorm hits for Hoffman and company with snow to a change over for the 95 corridor than a significant area wide snow event. That being said... we’ve got a long way to go and the potential is still absolutely there for the entire Baltimore DC corridor to see appreciable snow. 

By the way.. thanks for having me everyone. Love this board. After I received my meteorology degree, I ended up changing careers and work for Apple. However, it’s great to have a place to channel my inner weather geek! 

Well said.  The FV3 and GFS Classic are quite different for 6z. op run so no biggie but I did notice the H is offshore which allows the storm to move more west hence the change over but still think 95 corridor could see a few inches before that happens.  lots of time to watch it and seeing suppressed solutions still gives me hope there is a middle ground.  not bad to be tracking in early Dec