bncho

CMC decent solution.

Noob vs Pro progression right there guys lol

if taken verbatim, RDPS zr in the metros might be an issue with these temperatures

below freezing and above freezing, almost like 31.8f vs 32.3f

There are some things to like about Dec 5-6 and there are some things not to like about Dec 5-6. The -NAO certainly helps that cold high-pressure in that location, which will promote CAD. However, as modeled, the high is weak, isn't in a great spot, and will retreat east. Therefore, we lose the CAD, hence the flip from snow/ice to ice/rain. Perhaps this will trend colder as models start to take MJO 8 into consideration. It's probably a better overall setup and we've got more things going for this than Dec 2, and there's a decent signal on the EPS. We shall wait and see.

looks like a -AO/NAO to me

step in the correct driection

EPS A-Okay

12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS

12z Euro is awful for DC, with a big NW shift. might be a cave

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

i cannot identify a difference between the 0z and 12z CMC

GFS actually starts as SNOW in the metros. Not as good for northern crew tho

December looks hot. Updated: BWI: 25.5" DCA: 18.2" IAD: 27.1" RIC: 12.3" ----- SBY: 13.2"

you said that you would release another winter outlook in november if your idea about winter changed. maybe it's time?

its probably a brash prediction

he's basing it off of a run from the euro weeklies

i just realized that was median and not mean. LFG!

sleet in mclean

i went to be at 1:30am for the euro and purposely set an alarm at 6:45 to see some snow showers. cloudy skies rn. I shall wait.

EPS is very aggressive

OH @Terpeast!!!!!

its almost a perfect balance. it was a touch more amped but the extra boost in precipitation really gave those snow bands a boost, helping the metros overcome the marginal temps for a longer time.