NittanyWx

There's one last moderate burst in north Jersey. Should be over after that.

I may end up busting too low in the city (had 2-5" there) depending on what happens with that burst in north Jersey). I'm at 4.1" Wilton, CT. DGZ delivers. Upton took a while, but this was their best forecast of the winter.

Still think the same. 2-5" city and north shore LI, 3-6" CT thru northeast Jersey and southernmost Hudson Valley. Sleet will be cutting totals south shore. Robust DGZ and lack of wind should help ratios in this one for those north of the city.

Sticking with my numbers from before. Upton issued WWA's, that's the right call.

So, yeah. GFS profiles look pretty damn impressive to me in the DGZ, especially north of the city.

As a native Huntington Station-ite, this is one of those situations where being on the north shore helps.

I accidentally posted this in the obs thread, but here's what I'm thinking. Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings on their own. I've found a lot of situations where we have little wind and a robust DGZ end up surprising on ratios. This can be a surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/ north shore LI. Not as bullish central/south Jersey, a bit more bullish further east in CT (outside the immediately NYC metro). I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ and have a tough time trusting the GFS BL. I would expect Upton to POST WWA's tonight.

Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings. This can be an surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/LI. Not as bullish central/south Jersey. I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ

2" in Wilton, moderate snow. Temp is 27.

4 hours later and no change over has occurred. Think you should spend a little less time hammering Upton.

Just did the ride from Stamford to Norwalk....roads ain't great. 26, light snow at the moment, 1" of snow in Norwalk.

Vis down to 1/2 mi in Stamford, mod snow.

And you completely busted.

They're seeing the warm nose further north, which I think is the prudent call given what has been going on down south. If main frontogen band is further north, likelihood of warm nose being further north than progged too. There's a much higher risk of a quicker mix in PHL and SEPA into SWNJ. Not an easy forecast at all down there.

Should be mostly frozen/snow through 0z for the city, NEPA, western Jersey (except south). Thinking 2-4" as a guess, you're on the higher side of that in PA. Warm nose probably a bit further north, same with main frontogen forcing as we tend to see in these types of setups. OKX not having a single WWA seems weird to me. Figure the overnight crew will have to do the lifting.

Pinging has stopped, just got above freezing now. Croton, Brewster have another 30 mins to an hr of ZR, a bit more north of there. Should flip about now in Mt. Kisco, Pound Ridge, etc. Storm behaved today, glad for no major surprises.

NYC over now to rain on schedule. ZR next couple of hours lower HV and interior CT. Looks like immediate coastal CT (the beaches) are mostly above freezing, that freezing line now lifting northward to cover the rest of coastal areas between 95 and the Merritt over the next 30-45 minutes. I'm up to 30 now.

I also thought most outlets forecasted this well. Upton was in CYA mode in the event the WAA was slower. Accuweather, zero clue why they decided precip was gonna come in early. That 8-10 window had been pretty consistent on guidance yday.

You hope you can hang onto sleet a bit longer, but it's gonna take a while to scour this low level cold out. Skew T's on the HRRR have the 900mb level over freezing by 6pm in the city. I unfortunately think this looks a period of like ZR Hudson Valley and interior CT. Shorter for the coast (as in not too much of an issue), could be a few hrs interior.

Locally still 25 here. Little bit concerned with this ice tonight, but thing we've managed to avoid the prolonged ZR event. Models did a decent job identifying the warm layer at 700-825, that'll nudge into the 850-925 level this evening.

Should be going over freezing in the 7-8 range NYC (earlier lower Manhattan/Brooklyn), think coastal CT more like 830-9. Interior is gonna take a while, still expecting a period of ZR Hudson Valley and north of the Merritt this evening. We've mostly stayed sleet during the daytime hours, which is as expected.

You missed about 6 hours of sleet. That's a miss. Happens. Find out why you missed and learn from it. Or keep defending a busted forecast, doesnt matter to me.

You busted, so did Upton. Predicting weather is hard. Learn from it.

I dont know how unexpected it is. The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part. That's about right. Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight.

1036 mb highs tend to be stubborn to give up their cold air at the sfc. So far, nothing telling me we see most of Manhattan north go above freezing anytime soon. You'll see some occasional bursts of snow but this is a sleet dominant storm and will remain so. Think theres a period of ZR this evening, but the warm nose is elevated enough that this *should* mostly be sleet.