NittanyWx
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Everything posted by NittanyWx
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Winds have shifted to an easterly direction in Fairfield County, CT and temps have quickly jumped to the mid 20s. It will only take a subtle wind direction shift to warm things up considerably. -
I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.
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Still expecting the inversion to hold for most north of the Island. I'm a bit surprised Upton hasn't extended HWW further west as of this morning. Think odds are pretty high of that verifying south shore and much of the Island at large.
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*Far* Inland. Would need a major (and it should be said quite unlikely) error with the northern stream to have much impact around the major cities like he's suggesting.
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I dont want to speak for the guys at Mt. Holly or OKX, but I think they're waiting to see the northern stream piece sampled by our upper air network first given its importance to how far inland the low tracks. That's the only thing I can think of at this point.
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I'm thinking the inversion holds north of the Island but I don't feel great about it. This isn't good for LI.
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Think I'd be taking the unders there given trends today. I know what they're thinking with the easterly fetch, but the mid levels always seem to warm quicker than progged. I also don't get the 7" in Monticello, seems very high.
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Unless things change drastically everyone is changing over within 3 hours of precip onset. It is a very, very brief window it can snow here before the column warms. GFS this AM has the 0C 850 isotherm north of 287 by between 11pm and 12 AM Monday. You'd need the entire mid-level low structure shifted about 150-200 miles to make this work.
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I am very interested in the timing of high tide vs LLJ cranking as this storm develop for Jersey. Thankfully I believe that has the worst of the winds are in between high tide cycles, but subtle differences in timing could make for a pretty rough coastal flooding situation.
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A small period is fine. I'd take the under on snow duration even up by 287/80 if thats the setup we get, you'll warm the 900-700 column very quickly with that setup. That's not to say the GFS is even right on the the track or occlusion timing, but that 700mb low track is no good. This ain't it.
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I know what I'm looking at. And that is not snow 15 miles inland for any appreciable length of time with those mid levels. That is a screaming SE wind.
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I know exactly what I'm looking at and that's flipping over to sleet regardless of whether you're 15 miles inland or not. You have a screaming SE fetch at the surface and mid-levels. That type of track is not producing 12 hours of 'snow' 15 miles inland.
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The kicker is annoying me. Lotta potential here but it's too many little vorts and a displaced baroclinic zone. May have to wait until next week.
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There's very little point in looking at anything other than very short term stuff right now in the model space. Looking for frontogenic forcing. I bumped up an inch to 3-6 today and flagged higher east end and eastern CT. 2-5" west of 287
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I'm using 2-5" right now and think I'll stay there unless the meso's really start going en mass towards a clean fronto band. I see the potential I'm just not willing to commit to it yet. Low side of range for those in jersey and lower Hudson valley, higher side potential for the south shore/east end.
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Think a good O/U for the city is like 2.5" for those of you betting types. I'm still more interested in that mid month period.
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The deformation banding much more a function of timing of the deepening low. Seems like a late bloomer that has upside potential, but most likely scenario still a light/moderate event. 12Z NAM is a good example of what happene if it deepens even just slightly on the later side.
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I've long felt the consistent tinkering of these models is becoming a fools errand on several fronts and leading to more significant forecaster error. A lot of these billed upgrades lead to only minor skill improvements and the yearly updates in an attempt to bias correct make it exceedingly difficult to figure out what those biases are from year to year. Bybthe time you get the bias down it changes. That said, the one constant bias has been Euro massively overdoing low level cold after a snowfall.
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Its useful in those very specific situations but it really struggles with overdoing its QPF fairly often too.
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Trying to thread the needle, but I'd say accumulation chances are >50% for 2" or more in NYC Metro at this stage. Agree that there are still over amp risks, but this is a decent spot to be inside 60 hours.
