NittanyWx

The kicker is annoying me. Lotta potential here but it's too many little vorts and a displaced baroclinic zone. May have to wait until next week.

There's very little point in looking at anything other than very short term stuff right now in the model space. Looking for frontogenic forcing. I bumped up an inch to 3-6 today and flagged higher east end and eastern CT. 2-5" west of 287

I'm using 2-5" right now and think I'll stay there unless the meso's really start going en mass towards a clean fronto band. I see the potential I'm just not willing to commit to it yet. Low side of range for those in jersey and lower Hudson valley, higher side potential for the south shore/east end.

Think a good O/U for the city is like 2.5" for those of you betting types. I'm still more interested in that mid month period.

The deformation banding much more a function of timing of the deepening low. Seems like a late bloomer that has upside potential, but most likely scenario still a light/moderate event. 12Z NAM is a good example of what happene if it deepens even just slightly on the later side.

I've long felt the consistent tinkering of these models is becoming a fools errand on several fronts and leading to more significant forecaster error. A lot of these billed upgrades lead to only minor skill improvements and the yearly updates in an attempt to bias correct make it exceedingly difficult to figure out what those biases are from year to year. Bybthe time you get the bias down it changes. That said, the one constant bias has been Euro massively overdoing low level cold after a snowfall.

Its useful in those very specific situations but it really struggles with overdoing its QPF fairly often too.

Trying to thread the needle, but I'd say accumulation chances are >50% for 2" or more in NYC Metro at this stage. Agree that there are still over amp risks, but this is a decent spot to be inside 60 hours.

Essentially trying to thread the needle...any small piece goes wrong and the whole system is a dud for the immediate local area. Some interesting mid month trends, though I'd like to see this roll out of the 11-15 before getting too confident in this temporary relaxing of standing wave.

It's well correlated with this impressive warm pool in the WPac. The problem isn't just the standing wave as it's also generating Rossby waves that are continuing to cause wave breaking and amping this Aleutian ridge. It's a tough cycle to break out of right now. It can snow, but it is significantly more difficult with this background state and it continues to be conducive to causing this PNA to dip and a lack of appreciable HP in Eastern Canada, especially with the Atlantic side looking as it does. I think there are sub seasonal periods where you might be able to hit the sweet spot if you can eject a KW and/or get some westward propagation from an ERW timed with that. Breaks the cycle of wave breaking for a few days and may allow the Aleutian ridge to roll over and dump some of this further east. But right now this remains a challenge.

I say this every year and no one ever listens.

Hard to dislodge this Aleutian piece balance of Dec. Threading the needle difficult as PNA dives and lack of source air. It's very hard to get E Canada HP in a pattern like this. Think this takes a bit of time to unwind.

For me it's more a matter of if you can leak some air east behind one of these storms, have some HP and can get a little SW riding the boundary between the antecedent airmass and that ridge. That's how you thread the needle in this type of pattern. It's a tougher ask.

I've read this 3x and I still don't know what you're trying to say.

Not loving these west/Pac trends last few runs. Path of least resistance is to dump this cold air supply west, makes for a trickier situation if we can bleed something east storm wise.

The big issue with P 7-8-1 in healthy Nina's like this is the tendency for subsidence over CPac. It's a seasonal standing wave issue

Well that GOA ridge didnt last long on the EC Ens...

You'd want that GOA ridge to nudge east a bit more to really dislodge that cement, but if it can hold onto this for a few runs it would at least be a step in the right direction

Neither of those dislodge a decent source airmass into eastern Canada when the Pacific looks like it does. Tuesday a great example..you get a coastal low with no air and no HP. Storms can happen in these patterns, but it's a thread the needle situation and those generally don't work out well for this area.

The problem is the 2 sigma block sitting over the Aleutians instead of the GOA. That's driving the PNA tank. Once again the American suite overamped the VP signal in an area where standing wave/seasonal interference during well developed Nina's occur, got people to bite on it, then backed off on the signal closer in. I've lost count how many times I've seen the American suite do that. If the Pacific isn't gonna help at all its gonna be a struggle.

Had blocking that year, which remains the biggest thing lacking in this pattern. I'm still a bit taken aback about just how badly the solar minimum ideas failed this year. Wasn't the biggest believer in them, but this is pretty a spectatular faceplant which I certainly wouldn't have expected.

Another Tornado warning for Joplin. Solid hook just south of Dallas.

This thread is way too pessimistic.. There are a good amount of meteorology jobs right now in the energy and commodities sectors, along with alternative energy and met-tech's as well. Not to mention the broadcast openings. I graduated very recently (mid recession), and I can say that a large portion of my class has excellent jobs. We have 3 Wx Risk grads at energy firms, one at a reinsurance firm, one at a global supply chain company, a few in grad school, and the majority of the rest in private forecasting gigs. I think the job scarcity issue is more at play when it comes to general forecaster positions than anything. NWS is tough to get for seasoned mets, let alone kids out of school. Couple that with people who do nothing to further their education post grad (even COMET modules help) and are unwilling to relocate, and you can see why there is a perception that there are no jobs. Broaden your horizons within meteorology and there are opportunities available. When you do get an opportunity, you have to seize it and you have to shine. Working hard isn't enough...you need to demonstrate social skills, show initiative, and demonstrate your value. I can tell you right now that majoring in weather risk was the smartest decision I ever made. Commodities and energy scarcity are huge issues right now, and they will only be further stressed as the population grows further. While many people dream of the NWS, there are amazing opportunities out there if you're willing to just go for it. Commodities and energy are where the jobs are going to be moving forward. I'd argue the name on your degree matters too, but that's more about networking.