This discussion got buried quick in the other OBS thread so I figured I’d post it here too
Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Areas affected...Upstate NY to eastern Long Island...including parts of southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 262341Z - 270545Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected.
DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island, largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be expected prior to the short wave passage.
..Darrow.. 12/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...