Doing some virtual snow chasing later this week, the forecast discussions coming from out west are entertaining, heres NWS Reno this morning:
Thursday-Sunday | Major Winter Storm, Blizzard Conditions
Possible:
* The message remains consistent--a storm that`s impressive even
by Sierra standards will arrive Thursday morning, with strong
and potentially damaging winds along with increasing intensity
of mountain snow during the day. For lower elevations, valley
rain and a rain/snow mix for foothill locations is projected to
begin Thursday night and continue through Friday. By late Friday
night, a blast of cold air will lower snow levels to all valley
floors, with periods of snow Saturday through Saturday night.
Some of the guidance even holds on to snow continuing through
Sunday night, which would lead to even greater snow amounts than
indicated in our current Winter Storm Watch statement.
* We`re getting to the point where snowfall amount probabilities
in the Sierra/northeast CA won`t even matter--being replaced by
certainties. Snow amounts will be so much and difficult to
accurately measure due to strong winds producing prolonged
periods of near zero visibility, and blowing/drifting snow
capable of burying vehicles and making it difficult to locate
roads. Even walking outside would not be advised during this
storm as a person could quickly become lost or disoriented.
* Lower elevations and foothills will likely experience strong and
potentially damaging winds for the Thursday-Friday time frame,
with high chances (70+%) for peak gusts 55+ mph. Wind prone
areas including US-395/I-580 from eastern Lassen County
southward across far western NV and into Mono County, and US-95
around Walker Lake have about a 50/50 chance of seeing peak
gusts 70+ mph. Blowing dust could produce areas of poor
visibility downwind of deserts and sinks in northwest/west
central NV.
* Western Nevada foothills (5000-6500 ft) will have the most
challenging projections for snowfall amounts, as snow levels
fluctuate around 5000-5500 feet for much of Thursday night-
Friday. Depending on how much moisture spreads over and if snow
intensities are sufficient to support daytime accumulations, the
amounts could vary from less than 1 foot to as much as 3 feet.
The higher end totals would occur in areas that remain all snow
starting Thursday night, and also if snow continues to pile up
through Sunday. Valley floors across the main urban areas (Reno-
Carson-Minden) and the Surprise Valley still have about 60-70%
chance of receiving 6+" and 15-30% chance of 12+" (except
probabilities are a bit lower for Reno`s lowest valleys), while
farther east across west central NV (Lovelock, Fernley, Fallon,
Yerington, Hawthorne), amounts still look to be notably
lighter, with less than 15% chance of exceeding 4".