IrishRob17

Mesoscale Discussion 0804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201752Z - 201845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail through this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate that surface temperatures have warmed into the low 90s F across portion of the Mid-Atlantic. Coupled with mid-60s F dewpoints, this is supporting 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the area, with further destabilization expected through peak heating this afternoon. Expectation is for ongoing thunderstorm activity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 to expand eastward, with additional development also possible along an approaching cold front. 20-30 kts of effective shear will support multicells, and perhaps marginal supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km per latest objective analysis) and dewpoint depressions of 20-25+ F will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially with any more well-organized clusters that develop. Isolated large hail may also accompany the most robust updrafts. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40567574 40837554 41157502 41447382 41547334 41607289 41607231 41517205 41297181 41077177 40877191 40667263 40517332 40347368 39997393 39627403 39217449 39127488 39147530 39327557 39787578 40567574 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

94 yesterday, 95 today. I'm good for summer now, 105 days until the 'ber months are back.

Strike that, reverse it? 90/74 here now, RH 59%

Made it to 94, 91 now.

89/56 here

Yeah, this is peak tree pollen time, it will start to drop off soon but not soon enough for those of us who feel the symptoms. 89/55 here now with a breeze which on the one hand feels good but on the other is making the pollen worse.

That's the big heavy pollen which isn't nearly as troublesome as the microscopic pollen that gets into nasal cavities.

Look at all those dandelions for the bees!

Summa?

and pollen…

I needed roof repairs and a new window after that day, not fun.

@BxEngineis jumping for joy that the HRRR is not on that list.

Low of 35 for this morning. Agreed that this seasons last freeze is 4/21 and 24 for me but it isn't the coldest last freeze in my records. 2007 will still hold that record with a last freeze of 22 on 4/11.

The low was a bit cooler than expected here, got down to 35, up to 51 now.

When does construction of the bear run begin?

I noticed my ornamental grasses which had started growing in the heat turned brown after the freeze, they are slowly coming back now. They don’t look as nice as they typically do at this point. The second push of smaller leaves on trees is what we had here a couple of years ago thanks to the spongy moth infestation.

How are your sweat pores holding up this morning?

.74" total, 3.54" for the month, about .50" below normal for April here. The hard freeze last week did a number on the apples around the New Paltz area. They're talking like 70% lost blossoms.

.70", 3.50" for the month.

Who is she?

No, soil temps are warm enough now.

Updated discussion .KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper level low shifts east and will linger over eastern Canada, with broad troughing over the eastern US through the weekend. This pattern will lead to cool conditions, with a stretch of highs and lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Stuck with NBM temperatures for now, but trends will be monitored as there will be a few nights across the interior where frost may be possible. The offshore low that was mentioned in the previous forecast has shifted farther in the latest guidance, far enough to lower the potential for impacts to the area.

My season total is a touch higher, 46.3"

From Uptons discussion: .KEY MESSAGE 3... The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend with a passing offshore low. The GFS and ICON are more aggressive showing phasing of the northern and southern stream with a surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would bring better chances for seeing wet weather and windy conditions. Both the ECMWF and GDPS are either offshore or weaker with this system, so there is plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight chance PoPs for now, since even the more aggressive scenarios bring the low a little too far offshore.

Trains magazine is indeed still around.