PhiEaglesfan712

This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.

I think we've been in a record -PDO cyclical pattern since the beginning of 2020: 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.59 -0.99 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.68 -1.84 -2.01 -1.81 -1.96 -0.94 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.10 -2.25 -1.33 -2.62 -2.39 -2.29 -1.82 -2.41 -2.21 2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.98 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

If we are really flipping to a -AMO, then I guess a flip from the secular -PDO to a secular +PDO period is going to soon follow. When we flipped to +AMO in ~1995, the secular +PDO period (which began in 1976) soon flipped to a secular -PDO following the next el nino -> la nina transition in 1998. That winter we get the -AMO, +PDO, and el nino combination (especially if it's moderate) is going to be a fun and wild one.

I feel like an east based la nina is the only way we're going to salvage the snow season for those living in coastal areas, like ACY. Aside from 2010-11 (which was a widespread blockbuster winter), ACY has underperformed in central-based la nina years. 2020-21 is a very good example of this. Even in ENSO neutral years like 1992-93 and 1993-94, ACY got less than half the snow of PHL and significantly less than Allentown. (In 1993-94, ACY only got a tenth of the amount of snow as Allentown 7.8 in vs. 75.2 in.) The east-based la nina years, 2017-18 and 2021-22, are really the ones where ACY outperformed relative to the region.

I think timing, more than anything, is what killed 2022-23, especially in the mid-Atlantic. By the time the pattern became more favorable, the sun angle was too strong (here in the mid-Atlantic) and the torch winter had already happened. But hey, we did get our coldest June since 1985! Just the fact that May and June were really cold shows the potential of what could have been with better timing. If that favorable pattern had begin to form in late November/December, rather than late February/March, that's a near guaranteed blockbuster winter for most of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Winter precipitation composite for moderate -PDO la ninas since 1949-50:

December 2022 finished below average temperaturewise here at PHL, making it 2 out of 3 months with a negative temperature departure (along with October 2022). However, I could tell a change was underway during the final 2 days of December. The first week of January was really warm and pretty much set the tone for the rest of the winter. (It was warm more often than not until the last week of April.) I went to the Eagles game that January 1 (we lost to the Saints, in an otherwise outstanding season) and it felt like spring. The climatology shows 57/39, but it easily felt a lot warmer that day, and I didn't really need a coat.

2008-09 la nina (winter) vs. 2022-23 la nina (peak and winter):

Yeah, 07/08 stunk in terms of snowfall in the PHL area. The only saving grace was the winter wasn't overly warm. We even carved out a below average temperature November and a snowfall in early December. The weaker back half of the la nina (08/09) was better. At least we got a cold October-January, a November snowfall, and two 8-in snowstorms (on February 4 and March 1-2) when the temperatures moderated out. I guess that's how 2022-23 could have looked like if things were in place better.

I never really liked the 2022 analog for this year. For one, we don't have a carry over la nina [and one the MEI had as a super la nina] from last season (which dissipated as the season went on). Secondly, the subsurface was warm in 2022, which is the complete opposite of what we have now. I think 2007-08 is the best analog, but the two biggest questions are (1) will the la nina develop, and (2) if it does, will it be an east-based la nina? If the answer to 1 is no, then a blend of 92-93 and 93-94 might come into play. (Pinatubo really skewed 92-93, especially the summer of 92.) Here is the 92-93 and 93-94 blend: If both 1 and 2 are yes, then we might look into years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. If 1 is yes and 2 is no, then I think the 2007-08 analog is probably the best with what we have to work with, though you could use years like 1998-99 or 2016-17. 2022-23 just doesn't work with the setup we have right now. Maybe for 2025-26 if we do end up getting a la nina that peaks in the summer.

If you're a snow lover, this probably isn't the best. We got both in 2011, and that winter (2011-12) ended up being an absolute torch. Of course, we got Sandy the following year, and 2012-13 was another below average snow season.

Off the bat, we can remove 83-84 and 95-96 (we don't have a +PDO) and 13-14 (that was a multi-year ENSO neutral state, and we're coming off a strong el nino). I'll keep 10-11 and 20-21 as outside chances, and only if this remains a central based la nina. Both are first year la ninas, and 10-11 is coming off a similar ENSO state as this year (strong el nino). If this year is an east-based la nina, then 10-11 and 20-21 can be thrown in the trash. Of course, if this becomes an east based la nina, then 17-18 becomes a good analog, as does 21-22.

Assuming a central based la nina, I have 2016-17 as the 3rd analog, after 2007-08 and 1998-99. Here at PHL, it was a blend of both. The winter of 2016-17 was closer to 1998-99, in that it featured a very warm and non-snowy February and a cooler and snowy March, with some snow during the first half of January. Late spring and summer 2017 was closer to 2008, featuring a cool May, warm June and July, and cool August.

It was like that until I think 2022, when the NJSIAA moved up the start of high school football season to late August. I think the last 3 years most high schools in NJ start in late August to accomodate for the change. If I was in charge, I'd shorten the school year. I'd make the football season and school start in late September/early October. (There's no reason why high school football is starting before the NFL regular season anyways. If anything, the NFL season should be the one starting in August.) Make the school last year late September through March. (This was the semester school schedule at Drexel. It works well. Not to mention, we saw this could work during the pandemic.) Then, April-August can be used for summer school, for those students who need to complete classes they didn't finish during the year.

If we're going to get a warm winter, I hope it's something like 2007-08, where we got the cool November and December. Yeah, the cool May reared its ugly head, but at least June and July 2008 were warm, so all wasn't lost. Also, January-April, while warm, weren't anything out of the ordinary.

I guess you like a warmer winter and cooler May/summer. That doesn't really help me being near PHL, except for the unseasonably cold rainstorm that will happen near the summer solstice, which I really don't want. I prefer the blocking to happen in November to maximize the season snow potential.

Yeah, it looks like January was the outlier month. At PHL, December and February had 18 in of snow, with March 6 in. Also, the cold continued into the spring, as May 1967 was the coldest May on record by a full degree F.

My guess is that the high school football season for Philly started this past weekend, so the schools have to be session.

Composites if we have an east-based la nina in 2024-25:

I have a feeling the la nina is going to take a 2021-22 trajectory. The la nina is going to be weak most of the fall/winter, but turns moderate in the spring, and maybe even strong in the summer (and holds on through the 2025-26 season). The only thing I don't know is if the la nina takes an east-based turn. If it does, then this upcoming winter should resemble 2021-22.

For the east coast to cash in, I think east-based la nina setup is the best scenario. ACY really outperformed in years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. I think a central-based la nina is going to favor west of PHL/I-95 like 2020-21.

lol, we're not coming anywhere close to 200 ACE. The fact that we're in a lull (again) in what is supposed to be the heart of hurricane season should make it pretty apparent. I think we're going to have a near normal number of named storms a la 1998/2007/2016. The only thing in question is whether the ACE total is going to be closer to the high end (1998) or low end (2007), or in the middle (2016). The fact that the 3 seasons (which are fairly similar imho) vary wildly in ACE shows its limitations, and why I don't put a lot of stock into that measure. I use the named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes as benchmarks/measuring sticks. So far this season, we've been on the low end on those measures at all points in the season compared to the last 10 years. And unlike this season, 1998, 2007, and 2016 all had activity in the heart of the season. 14 or 15 seems like the right number of storms we are going to finish with this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is less. But no way are we going past 17, and the ACE won't pass the 1998 number. It will end somewhere around the 2016 number, maybe less.

Didn't the Southeast Ridge finally break around mid-April 2023? If I remember correctly, places as south as Georgia got frost/freeze as late as May 18, which hurt the peaches crop that year. Regarding 2020-21 and 2021-22, I believe that perhaps the biggest difference is that the former was a central based la nina, while the latter was an east based one. I think east based la ninas favor the eastern (coastal) areas. ACY had more snow in 2017-18 and 2021-22 (years that were east based la ninas), and didn't do as well as in the central-based 2020-21.

The difference was the pattern favorable for cold was in place by November in 2017-18. This winter has been talked about ad nauseum in this forum. December and the first half of January had major cold, and I think there was a major snowstorm in early January, which especially impacted Atlantic City. (Actually, the first taste of major cold was on November 10.) February was the real outlier. March had 3-4 snowstorms here in the mid-Atlantic and the cold continued well into April, but it helped that the cold was there earlier in the season. We didn't really have any of that in 2023. I wish the pattern was in place earlier. This map of May-August shows the potential that could have been there (if the blocking pattern was in November, imagine this in January-April instead - and much of the cold was in the first 2 months, which would have been January and February):