Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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We are waterlogged here and it doesn't really dry up due to low sun angle and plants/trees not taking up water
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Which is probably why it won't happen....
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There's still no arctic air involved in the pattern either...big deal if it's 38 instead of 50 you still likely rain with any storm even on a decent track
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Problem is that air would modify as it moves south over snowless ground and warm lakes...we will torch
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that would basically be like '15-16 without the historic December warmth
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I think he's highlighting the lack of ANY cold air anywhere right now
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reminds me of the storm of 94-95 right at xmas-big winds but no cold anywhere
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April too-nothing like the annual -NAO to trap a chilly damp airmass for a week straight
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Rare any year let alone 2 yrs in a row. But we better flip to a better pattern before too much of January gets away or it may be a very brief winter for the coastal plain...
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Why they nailed it why you were still barking -NAO
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Winds were extreme-damage to the shoreline here was comparable to Sandy
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If it doesn't happen by mid Jan it's probably not coming. And by 3/10 or so it's too late anyway which was last year's problem along with zero cold air despite a decent pattern
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
Brian5671 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
This is where JB (and others) look silly-he's still hanging onto the "big pattern switch" after 12/20 despite modeling which shows that idea heading to the trash bin....sticks with an idea way too long and long after it's apparent it's not coming..his twitter posts are very defensive today.... -
yep I remember a couple storms in the 80's where it was torch and we get a lucky storm of course it was gone in 2 days but who cares
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I think you're optimistic there...I remember the winter of 05-06 it was the same thing-the cold just never came once Canada was flooded-granted different drivers that year but I think models often rush it...
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The next problem will be routing out all the mild air. Canada could take a couple weeks to cool down even in a best case scenario...that would take up to mid Jan.
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Outstanding post. Good way to look at it all....
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Kind of like the Farmer's almanac-would you pick up a copy if it said "warm and snowless" all winter? Nope.
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Too much Twitter/hype garbage with a pattern change 12/20 and "disruptive travel week" for xmas blahblahblah, people lap up that stuff like a hungry lion and a steak
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Yep 2017-18 and 2020-21 were our last decent years and both had December storms...
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At least locally years with no Dec snow tended to have well below normal snowfall outcomes for the rest of winter. Sure there's 14-15 but that's the outlier....
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It will likely remain stormy with the STJ-let's hope we can link up with some cold air-but that looks to be up to a month away at this juncture-PAC air in December won't cut it.
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Sounds like last year-white rain city...
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They always do well when it's warm here-storm track favors them-Caribou's biggest snow years are torches here
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we had 2 outbreaks last winter, the 2nd in early Feb-but both were cold and bone dry and in and out within 2 days-no blocking to hold it in...
