You're missing arctic air-most of the coast's biggest storms have an arctic outbreak ahead of them...even March 1998 had that. Marginal cold will cut it in Jan/Feb but not March.
I would hope people have learned at this point but some refuse to. We've been chasing the "big pattern" since Thanksgiving this year....If it doesn't come by the end of January it's not likely coming...
Yet we continue to see LR winter forecasts way underdone on the warmth.....I know it's a crapshoot though, but I would be wary of predicting anything normal or below at this juncture.