Brian5671

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

To be fair, a bunch of models did not have this heavy batch rotating through the NYC area right now. 

It was shown more east. 

Models always struggle with these cutoffs and the placement of the rains at a given hour

Just mist and drizzle here so far.   61 degrees

steady rain has commenced here

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hour 55 sure. We all get a soaking tomorrow night.

I think by Wednesday we will all be tired of rain...

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Models seem to have the rains to our south and west not really hitting NYC east. 

Maybe they'll be wrong, we'll see. 

3K NAM crushes us all

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Just get the yankee game in, after that it can pour.

That slug of rain in S NJ may be a problem

-

NAMS coming in very wet for many here

Models are wet Mon-Wed-althought placement of the big rains is still a bit in the air

3K NAM

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So many did, expecting a weekend washout 

Machines ahead of the humans on this one-models backed off 36 hrs ago

7 minutes ago, Picard said:

Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. 
I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory  - looked like a nice line.  We'll see if more pops up later.  Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.

 

The front ended up further north-hence the forcing up that way....

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No rain this weekend?

Dry begets dry

77 here with mostly sunny skies

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A reminder that average temps aren't even 70F yet. Monday will feel cold compared to what we've seen

Full on summer yesterday and today!

Tomorrow looks like a blowtorch too now-no rain until evening at best

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. 

Summer like where it's warm and muggy.    81 here

We will get some rain b/w now and next Tue/Wed but the big totals are looking less and less likely

Loud storm about 2am here-dropped .15

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Mowed for the third time already today 

3 here as well.   Usually starts mid April but I'd say we are 7-10 days ahead of climo here

Today's theme seems to be to initially keeping alot of the rain to the N and W

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Part of the problem with these forecasts is it will say 70% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday but end up raining for a total of 4 or 6 hours.  I see lots of cancellations of weekend events already

yeah-most models don't have much at all for Saturday now....

22 minutes ago, dWave said:

Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower.

Ugh-that's miserable in the rain-we did it a few years back a few times-one year had off and on shower and cold.

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weekend looks fine for most of SNE

yeah it seems like Mon-Wed is the real wet period but who knows with a cutoff low where it actually ends up.

The GFS has joined the wet models for next week

34 minutes ago, MANDA said:

April precipitation here was 4.76".  While a nice total most of that fell in the first 12 days.  Only an additional .74" fell from the 13th. through the 30th.  April also delivered 1.5" snow for a 2024-25 total of 30.9".

Rainfall amounts over the next week will depend greatly on final track / placement of upper low.  Slight positioning and speed differences will have big impact on who gets what.  Thinking a compromise of wet EURO / CMC vs. dry GFS is way to go at the moment as @bluewave said.

Pattern has potential to deliver or disappoint.  With the wind, low humidity and lack or rainfall over the last 2 weeks or so we could use a 1"+ soaking.

I'd be happy with another inch or so

Euro/CMC wet early next week with 3-5 inches of rain-GFS meanwhile is nothing like that with a progressive pattern

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

PA storms

 

 

wonder if any of that survives the trip